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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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We had a rare stretch of 3 consecutive cloudy and sub 80F days from Fri-Sun during mid Summer.  While the cooler and cloudy weather was nice, I'm sooo ready to see some sunshine today through the rest of this work week.  Bring on the "Heat', well, not as bad as most of you west/south of here as I see our region topping out in the very low 90's on a couple days but mostly in upper 80's to near 90F.  Make it a great Monday!

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With a good amount of clouds yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 80/66 even with all of the clouds there was no rain fall. And just 12% of possible sunshine. The overnight low for today so far is 65. The record high for today of 101 was set in 1894 and the record low of 47 was set in 1924. This week looks to continue to have warm temperature and very little of any rain fall.

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Is Relief coming down the piper???  I am now strongly confident that by this weekend we will see a summer CF penetrate the Heat Dome and bring relief for the central Plains/Upper MW members.  0z EPS keeps trending cooler for my target period starting this Fri into the following week.  Not only the Euro, but the rest of the globals are starting to "see" the Ring of Fire igniting this weekend across parts of the MW.

0z UKIE...

qpf_acc.us_c.png

 

0z Euro...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z EPS 5-day temp mean....

2.gif

 

The Fri-Sun period could get interesting...I smell a Severe Wx outbreak...

3.gif

Of note, its been many years since western Canada has had the precip being advertised. That's a huge difference from the past few years. I'm sure they are grateful.

That moisture is important for future cold fronts. Also beautiful seeing a heat ridge get beaten back west and south. Slowly but surely, friends. 

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21 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

If you have chill neighbors, mow at 6am. Don't wanna be one of those guys with notes from the city on your front door telling you to keep up the yard. August is no better than July in most places. 

I decided to purchase a cordless (battery-powered) mower earlier this year, you can literally have a normal conversation while mowing, and so far it's not lacking in power... I could probably mow at midnight and my closest neighbors probably wouldn't hear it LOL!  

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Is Relief coming down the piper???  I am now strongly confident that by this weekend we will see a summer CF penetrate the Heat Dome and bring relief for the central Plains/Upper MW members.  0z EPS keeps trending cooler for my target period starting this Fri into the following week.  Not only the Euro, but the rest of the globals are starting to "see" the Ring of Fire igniting this weekend across parts of the MW.

0z UKIE...

qpf_acc.us_c.png

 

0z Euro...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z EPS 5-day temp mean....

2.gif

 

The Fri-Sun period could get interesting...I smell a Severe Wx outbreak...

3.gif

Not much relief for anyone to the west of you though... still looks like a fairly brutal 2-3 week stretch upcoming for us NE/ MO/ KS/ OK/ TX peeps.

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Nice cool down today, been raining most of the morning with garden variety t'storms from 3-9am. It was still lightly raining before posting this.

Still couldn't go below 70 though even with several hours of rain. :P

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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90°F w/ a dewpoint of 77°F as of 140pm. Yucky.

Beginning of what looks like a long stretch of oppressive weather.

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109°F in Burneyville, OK (West of Marietta)

 

NWS now has a forecast of 110°F tomorrow, hottest since 2012 and 2011 🤮

 

But, there is hope, the 100s may disappear from my area next week, only if that cold front comes. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Could still go up. Only 4:45.  😡
 

35FF3EF7-A578-4809-AB54-75F6522FA1DF.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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40C7BE39-F1FD-44B3-94C2-D91C31A386D7.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I was looking to see the weather forecast for England and this is what I found from the UK Met
UK 5 day weather forecast
Monday 18 Jul - Friday 22 Jul
Headline:
Exceptionally hot for many areas.

This Evening and Tonight:
Most places dry and clear, but some showers in the far north and northwest, and potentially also the far southwest towards dawn. Very warm everywhere, but especially England and Wales where the heat could feel oppressive in urban areas.

Tuesday:
Exceptional and record breaking heat for much of England, Wales and parts of Scotland. Thundery showers in the southwest and a few further north later. Rain in the far northwest.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
Warm Tuesday night, then change to cooler weather Wednesday, accompanied by rain/showers, some thundery, in places. Fine and mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Risk thundery rain far south later Friday

Note no temperatures are given. I did find that around midnight their time the temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 70's 

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London & South East England weather forecast
Monday 18 Jul - Friday 22 Jul
Headline:
Extremely hot by day, staying very warm by night.

This Evening and Tonight:
A fine but very warm evening and night with patches of high level cloud, dry throughout. Feeling very muggy in the light winds, particularly in urban areas. Minimum temperature 23 °C.

Tuesday:
Another exceptionally hot day and night on Tuesday, with plenty of sunshine by day. Generally dry but the odd shower is likely into the evening and overnight. Maximum temperature 40 °C.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
Turning cooler and cloudier Wednesday, with showers at times. Sunny spells returning for Thursday and Friday, staying somewhat cooler with the odd shower possible.
Note the low of 23 C is 73.4 F and that high of 40 C is 104 F
 

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I think we’ll see 100’s here till end of July. May begin to creep down there after.  
If we can just get to 96-97 it’ll feel like a cool front.  Equipment will begin to operate and not strain.  I hold my breath for now.  .  

105 at 7:20 pm

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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They’re calling for only 108 tomorrow.  
It’ll feel like a bloody cold front!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 7/16/2022 at 10:19 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

0233C9FD-DE96-4E62-B277-D01B7F75CE38.jpeg

Cmom on man--- 108F today at OMA??(post of GFS not even 72-96 hrs old?)  Bunch of garbage is the GFS. I'am gonna bet  the GFS gets another "reboot" after getting slammed by the Euro and other models after this summer. --- Funny thing is the record for OMA 7/19 is 110F --- will not be within 10F of that. )that's like 20F-25F difference in the winter with simple physics involved (wet bulb/mixing ratios'). THE GFS is simply F'd when it comes to any extremes. ( it sucks in winter also, but NOT this bad. )---  Even FSD NWS called out the GFS being out to lunch a few days back I  believe. Can't see the low level moisture and envirotranspiration I guess.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It's pretty sad when the national media in the weather doesn't cover (at least I didn't see it-- and the weather is my profession) something as historic at what happened in AUS this (their winter) this (our) Spring. But they do the current deal in Spain/Europe.

My issues with the Global Warming crowd- is not that the Earth is not  warming  ( it is)-- but the the lack of transparency with the "other" side and not giving "it" the same media play with = being = in a free press.

Anybody here hear  about Aussie land having coldest spring in 100 years?? Almost certain if it was the other way around - you would have. Not arguing a warming planet - the question is from what?? But at least report the "other side" as it happens just as frequently- just not reported "mainstream".

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/09/what-global-warming-australia-endures-record-breaking-cold/

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Whoops!  Man, did the models "miss" the -EPO that is now forecast to dip big time early next week and to close out July.  This is the long awaited pattern change that I've been calling for even when the modeling was showing otherwise.  I'm thrilled to see this happen bc not only will parts of the central plains states be tracking summer time CF's, but there is MOISTURE showing up in the mid range!

 

image.png

 

0z Euro. temp anomalies...I think the pattern is ripe for the last week of July to see more seasonal to BN temps show up for the Plains.  Bigly Relief on the way...heck, even back to seasonal levels will be welcomed, right??

image.gif

 

0z UKIE....through Sunday...very consistent each run...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

0z Euro...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

What's intriguing is the Monsoon flow up and over the SW ridge could provide some natural "air conditioned cooling" in parts of the OK/TX come Wed-Fri period from popup storms.  @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 could be in for some possible severe action...

Meantime, the flip in the -EPO, is now causing the 0z GEFS to show this in the midrange...

image.gif

 

 

Woah, did the 0z EPS cool the central CONUS...Bigly!  Hope this trend continues!  You guys out west and south will def earn this Relief.  I just hope it spreads enough south to encompass most, if not, all of our members.

image.gif

 

Lastly, the 0z EPS has also joined the GEFS and increased the moisture through the end of the month.  This is all really good news for our farmers/growers.

image.png

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Yesterday was a very warm day with an official H/L of 89/65 at Grand Rapids. It was very warm to hot across the state of Michigan. The state high looks to have been 93 at Traverse City. Even in the UP readings were mostly in the upper 80’s to low 90’s the coolest high at a reporting station yesterday was 78 at Copper Harbor. Other cooler locations were 83 at Holland and 85 at Muskegon. The rest of this week looks the same very warm to hot and rather dry. At this time the best chance of rain looks to come Saturday night. Unfortunately, I have tickets for a Tiger game that night. Oh well the way they have been playing no real big loss (well could be money for me) I don’t like the rain check policy of Major League Baseball. Really not fan friendly.

 

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BTY it is now just past noon in London and their current temperature is 35C that is 95F the DP is very low as the real feel is 34 and the wind is out of the SE. The forecasted high there is 38C that is 100.4F remember very few have AC in England.

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Just wanna say the No Plains produced some gorgeous hay fields this year.  
From So Dakota. 
 

92B1B713-83B5-4BF2-9B25-3B8C6AE42B23.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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London, UK is baking! All time records are broken. My cousin who lives there told me just now that the temp is at 103F as I type this. Crazy!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Temps struggled to drop below 80°F at DCA last night. Sultry. Cloudy start this AM, now full sunshine and 90°F.

Looks like a lengthy stretch of mid/upper 90s coming up, midweek through next weekend. Might not drop below 80°F on some nights. 😕

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@Tom

There's my crash. Boom. EPS crushes that ridge out in many runs now too or is starting to. 

Starting to see a pretty nest tropical plume kick over TX too.

This ridge has a future appointment at Phil's house and points e/ne if my guessing is correct. 

 

Good good news. Prayers answered. 

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Hit 110*!   Yup.  
Windy at 13-22 mph too! It’s a blast furnace.  But wind generators are helping with power.  
 

We’re forecasting 107* tomorrow.  
That’s going the right direction.  😉

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Hit 110*!   Feels like temp. 117*.  Yup.  
Windy at 13-22 mph too! It’s a blast furnace.  But wind generators are helping with power.  
 

We’re forecasting 107* tomorrow.  
That’s going the right direction.  😉

Large wildfire west of me in an exclusive area.  Several homes burned down. 
(screen grab)

5768072E-0587-4FAE-9B8B-2DDE9F4F7219.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

@Tom

There's my crash. Boom. EPS crushes that ridge out in many runs now too or is starting to. 

Starting to see a pretty nest tropical plume kick over TX too.

This ridge has a future appointment at Phil's house and points e/ne if my guessing is correct. 

 

Good good news. Prayers answered. 

Yeah this looks sultry.

D454F4C1-B83D-48BE-B173-AF0F58A93211.png

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