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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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They blew the temp today. 
We hit 102 at 3 pm. 
But a chance of rain ahead of the front. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

Do you think the CPC boys will adjust this map today for Week 2???  Especially for our southern members....

Screen Shot 2022-07-21 at 3.45.57 AM.png

 

0z EPS Week 2 looking mighty nice for our OK/TX members...

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I don't think you can script this any better for the Lone Star state and @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4...Load it up Mother Nature!  One round after another, here we go... @clintbeed1993 @Clinton @mlgamer KC Peeps look like a wild ride next Mon-Fri!  Oh, ya,...let's not forget about the Monsoon as Arizona is now the target for the epicenter of the Monsoonal Flow instead of it being NM over the last 30-45 days.  Love it.

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So beautiful. So very beautiful.

Look @Andie

I couldn't draw that up any better.

God is good. Always.

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Dew point just crashed after ob time from 62F to 51F at KDSM in a matter of 10 minutes. Feels like Fall (though still warm) arrived for a short time.IMG_20220721_161823_01.thumb.jpg.fabb2aebaec58b96ed35d4587c0aa298.jpg

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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29 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

So, your region may get to see heat burst-related phenomena later very soon. Possibly. 

in 25+ years of observing I have personally witnessed a heat burst twice. Both in the "cold" summer of 2004. Two  of the three 90 degree days that summer was due to a heat burst-- on July 20th- 2004. 91F at 2:15am if a remember correctly and from the low 70's. The other was June 11th of that same year.

Good call. Very rare, but possible.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

So beautiful. So very beautiful.

Look @Andie

I couldn't draw that up any better.

God is good. Always.

Clint, I have rain NW of me now but I think it will dry up before it gets here. To hot. High still strong. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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32 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

in 25+ years of observing I have personally witnessed a heat burst twice. Both in the "cold" summer of 2004. Two  of the three 90 degree days that summer was due to a heat burst-- on July 20th- 2004. 91F at 2:15am if a remember correctly and from the low 70's. The other was June 11th of that same year.

Good call. Very rare, but possible.

I remember some from that year and I remember a few from probably 1998-2000 down here or around Paul's Valley/Paoli area. I remembered going to bed one night after working and watering a 1.5 acre garden and having fought all late june and july to get it going only to wake up one morning to it all literally being flattened and/or fried dry like someone dehydrated it. My grandfather had seen that happen before, but i hadn't. I only remembered and went back and researched it years later. 

We were done for the summer after that.

Some folks who are awake at night when they happen hear roars and what sounds like low sonic booms. Its wild. 

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Yeah. Dark clouds sitting north of me. 
Drying up.  102*. 
Did the same last night. It wants to do its summer rain dance but it’s just too hot and dry.  
 

Saw my first bird in 2 weeks tonight!  
That’s a good sign.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Its not yet. But on its way. Opening week of Aug iirc. No change what the next ten was/is going to be. Pure heck.

From Larry Cosgrove-

“While we may be seeing different trends in the final third of August, for now, the lower 48 states are stuck with the "same old, same old". That is, lots of heat and lack of rainfall. You hearing me, Dallas Texas?”

Current fire map 

 

956A11A9-07CE-46D4-A86D-33283F7335CA.jpeg

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like a heat burst may have happened at Norfolk,NE.

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Data at: 0822 UTC 22 Jul 2022

KOFK 220756Z AUTO 21026G42KT 10SM CLR 32/09 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 23049/0739 SLP071 T03170089
KOFK 220656Z AUTO 25011KT 10SM FEW110 23/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W SLP112 T02330167
KOFK 220556Z AUTO 11005KT 10SM CLR 24/16 A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W SLP114 T02390161 10317 20239 403440189 51013
KOFK 220456Z AUTO 13007KT 10SM CLR 26/16 A2990 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP107 T02560156

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Now in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. 

 

You've had the Hot hand lately getting these timely rains bud.  I must say, nature has been kind in some ways for you this summer.  Get ready for an active stretch and much welcomed relief come late this weekend but esp next week.  The 0z Euro likes your area and points across I-80 and south...

 

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I've seen this pattern before and it's cycling again....it's fascinating to see the blocking return in the same exact places from way back in early Autumn when the LRC was developing.  The troughs, blocks are all returning in the "Summer Version" but what is strikingly similar, is this 10 day animation showing the troughs track one by one into SE Canada delivering a colder pattern.  #patternrecognition

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With that being said, the EPS/Euro is going to whip the GFS/GEFS in the LR pattern this go-around as the GEFS are play catch up.  On the Flip side, however, the Euro Weeklies are playing catchup in the very LR and Flipping hard and trending towards the JMA.  It is really showing bountiful precip for our southern members and also the GL's/MW and eastern ag belt region for the rest of Met Summer.  I'm sure it will fill in the holes over NE/KS bc thats been the theme and as we get closer in time this model begins to "see" it.  The CFSv2 is very wet over the heartland.

 

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Here was the JMA Week 3-4 outlook...

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Temp & Precip...notice the model is seeing the pocket of BN temps near the Ozarks as the warmth expands into W NAMER...loads of precip for the 4 corners/Rockies and near OK and points N & E.

Screen Shot 2022-07-22 at 4.42.41 AM.png

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

You've had the Hot hand lately getting these timely rains bud.  I must say, nature has been kind in some ways for you this summer.  Get ready for an active stretch and much welcomed relief come late this weekend but esp next week.  The 0z Euro likes your area and points across I-80 and south...

 

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The storms last night died out and left us with only a light shower. However, I’m just awoken by storms moving southeast over the area. Getting some nice rain right now as of 5:30 am. 

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Cool front rolling on by today will make it feel nice w/ highs in the 80s. Then, a WF comes in tomorrow w/ more heat and humidity followed by a strong CF late Sat and into Sun that could trigger some violent weather here in S MI. All eyes on radars during that time.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 88/69. Late yesterday afternoon there was a very brief shower that dropped 0.06” at GRR and here in MBY the total rain fall was just 0.03” in that brief shower. The official overnight low looks to have been 68 at GRR while here in MBY the low was 65 at the current time it is clear here and 70 in MBY. Today and tomorrow look to continue to be very warm to hot. With highs in the upper 80’s to near 90. The best chance of widespread rain fall still looks to be late Saturday night into Sunday morning. We are going to Detroit tomorrow for a Tigers game and it looks like it will be very warm for the game and I hope most of the rain holds off until later but then I will be driving home in the rain.

 

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Good job recognizing the pattern @Tom Gary has been very confident that this heat will break in KC and some much cooler weather will greet us possibly next week and especially to begin August.  I hope the 0z Euro is on the right track as it brings nearly 2 inches of rain to mby and has slowly been trending further south.  It will be too late for some of the corn that was planted late but could certainly save the majority of the local corn crop.  Moderate and severe drought from my place north.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good job recognizing the pattern @Tom Gary has been very confident that this heat will break in KC and some much cooler weather will greet us possibly next week and especially to begin August.  I hope the 0z Euro is on the right track as it brings nearly 2 inches of rain to mby and has slowly been trending further south.  It will be too late for some of the corn that was planted late but could certainly save the majority of the local corn crop.  Moderate and severe drought from my place north.

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Good luck on the coming rains!  Your state could use a good drink from nature.

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Just now, Tom said:

Good luck on the coming rains!  Your state could use a good drink from nature.

Thank you, as bad as it is here it's much worse in southern MO.  There have been several wildfires in the Ozarks as extreme drought has developed.

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Had it all around us just north. Some nice dark clouds.    
Shows it CAN happen! 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It appears a very narrow band of storms and heavy rain tracked through Omaha early last night.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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On 7/21/2022 at 9:18 AM, hawkstwelve said:

I am, on the west side of Sioux Falls. Is your band playing here? Unfortunately my entire family has COVID and I've been pretty much bed ridden since Tuesday night or else I'd come check it out!

Nah we just stayed the night. Drove down 90 to Rapid City. That was a hot drive! The air in our van isn't working very well lol. Heading down to Denver today.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

You've had the Hot hand lately getting these timely rains bud.  I must say, nature has been kind in some ways for you this summer.  Get ready for an active stretch and much welcomed relief come late this weekend but esp next week.  The 0z Euro likes your area and points across I-80 and south...

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

I just would like a explanation  for this. I have seen it all too often in summer here. Southeast  Iowa is not the plains!  Much closer to gulf of mexico in fact. Close  enough to Mississippi  basin to get plenty of 80 plus dewpoints  each season! Why no @%@$^ lift here!

Screenshot_20220722-122339_Chrome.jpg

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19 hours ago, Andie said:

From Larry Cosgrove-

“While we may be seeing different trends in the final third of August, for now, the lower 48 states are stuck with the "same old, same old". That is, lots of heat and lack of rainfall. You hearing me, Dallas Texas?”

Current fire map 

 

956A11A9-07CE-46D4-A86D-33283F7335CA.jpeg

Yeah. Worth noting he disagrees with me. I'm faster. He's probably got it breaking all the way down in September. 

I see breaks before then for you starting around mid week one or so. Euro looks mixed, i think, so we'll see. 

Promising thing is that it breaks, eventually.

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96 degrees here this afternoon. Dews were supposed to drop into the lower 60s but have been hovering around 70°F, making it feel more like 105°F. Yucky.

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Still looking for any meaningful change in the background state. Still don’t see it.

That NPAC wavebreak does offer temporary relief this week, though.

306A45E9-AD8F-401D-8B4A-6E4B758955B9.gif

 

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FWIW July 2022 is on track to be one of the hottest on record across the continental US. :o Don’t think it’ll finish #1 but could easily be in the top-5.

Suspect August will be in the top-10, as well.

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