July 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

23 hours ago, westMJim said:

We are going to the Tiger game tonight. I hope that with the 6 PM start time that the rain holds off until after the game. But I might be driven home in some storms we shall see.

Hope you enjoyed the game. I saw a batch of really hvy t'stms late last night approaching the Grand Rapids area. Did you get caught in any of these storms? My area just received hvy rains and some vivid lightning w/ no thunder and no wind at all. I'll take some free water anytime, no questions asked.

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'll believe it when I see it.  The GFS, and maybe a couple other models, predicted major heat across my region during the second half of July, but it was nonsense.  We've hit 90º once and the rest of the month will be quite pleasant.

You speak  truth. Much of midwest the heat wave has been hype.

[Hawkeye]

Much of southern Iowa has been very dry this month.  Meanwhile, part of far northeast Iowa has had more rain in the last week than I've had over the last two months.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'll believe it when I see it.  The GFS, and maybe a couple other models, predicted major heat across my region during the second half of July, but it was nonsense.  We've hit 90º once and the rest of the month will be quite pleasant.

The GFS 2m temps are bonkers. Should never be used at this time of year. But 850mb temps are fine and have verified well.

In fact been one of the hottest Julys on record across the US. So the model guidance was correct on that front.

[Clinton]

33 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nice head fake from mother nature this week.

The “ouch pattern” returns in early August.

We will see but I don't believe so.  I believe August will start out below average for many of us and some widespread rainfall.  I'm sure the extreme heat will show its ugly head from time to time but I think the worst of it may be over Plains.  Texas that could be different. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Beautiful morning here. Low 70’s with a north wind, but a little humid with the rain from last night and the crops putting off water. Very good chances for rain tonight and Monday, possible heavy rain is forecasted. Mondays high might stay in the 60’s. What a pattern flip.

[CentralNebWeather]

Only positive about August heat, is the daylight keeps getting shorter. When the crops mature around here in late August, our dews usually plummet which leads to a drier heat. 

[Phil]

Month to date temperatures across the lower-48.

[Clinton]

@Jayhawker85and @mlgamer models are lining up well for us to get a much need drink overnight and tomorrow.  Good luck guys!

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Month to date temperatures across the lower-48.

As I thought, Louisville and Paducah are warmer than my place. Even on a normal year I think Ashland is a tad cooler anyways. 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We will see but I don't believe so.  I believe August will start out below average for many of us and some widespread rainfall.  I'm sure the extreme heat will show its ugly head from time to time but I think the worst of it may be over Plains.  Texas that could be different. 

I’d love to be wrong, lol. I tell you brother I’m itching for that first autumn airmass! More than you know.

Looking hard, but still don’t see a favorable pattern (at least not with any staying power) anytime soon. Tropical forcing reflects a La Niña modoki with WPAC subsidence (which is historically a hot pattern in the US during the 2nd half of summer).

Something else would have to overcome that, and I don’t see what that could be? The MJO tends to decay into fast/shallow CCKWs crossing the Pacific thanks to the Niña base state, so that only offers brief relief (like this week).

If I had to guess, August will be in the top-15 warmest on record for the CONUS. Typical for this type of La Niña.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Well,  another amazing  stat from Southeast Iowa. Ive only lived here 15 of my 58 years.  But have seen so much extraordinary  weather. 

So as the cold front approached at 3:01 am the temp reached 87.4 degrees after a low of 82 earlier.   Yet another  obscure  point but yet another point burned into  my brain of how crazy the weather is here! Oh and yes another striking west to east moving cold front with basically  zero precip. 90% of such cold fronts are usually  precipitation  free here which also astounds me.  I did get .04  seem unless a front is sagging in from due north, stalled or a wobbling warm front there simply  is no lift  in atmosphere  here! Takes a LLJ  or outflow. All just odd to me.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wow! The two W's emphasized on this 10-day. Warm and WET!! 

And, the 90's sort of go away after today.

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

This weekend has been a big dud for my area and points south.  I will likely finish July about 2" below average rain.

Same here in my neighborhood, we had decent storms in the area Thursday night and last night - yet I have picked up a total of 0.05" of rain as the decent moisture/ rains went north.

I am not holding much hope for tomorrow as the heaviest rains look to be slipping south towards the Kansas border... said it once and will say it again - this pattern blows!   

[Andie]

Somebody give me some hope!  
Throw me a bone!   

I'm just hoping to get out of the 100’s.  
We know it’ll be hot but moderation would be a blessing.  
I’m not counting on the tropics.  Looks grim there.  It’s usually our saving grace.  
WOW, has this summer stunk!

[Andie]

I’ll add: 

102 today.  
103 Mon - Thurs.!

Fri/Sat  98/97  Chances of rain. (Right).  I hate teases! 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Here is a estate that we maintain.  Its in a region  near here than seems to get missed   frequently  in summer.  Over  my years here in business  there seems to be certain  pockets that  tend to get less summer  precip than others. Since there is very little  good data from Southeast  Iowa theres no way of knowing if such micro climates exists or why.   But the certainly  seem to exist,  soil  type and terrain can affect ones perception  of drought!  But other than  2008 thru 2010, 2014 and 2020 some locations  in my work area seem to be dry so often!  Fyi Im in discussions  with nws about making my home property  24 acres a permanent  coop observer location.  The above pic is july 24 2020. Below pic is now.

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, Andie said:

I’ll add: 

102 today.  
103 Mon - Thurs.!

Fri/Sat  98/97  Chances of rain. (Right).  I hate teases! 

Well I wish you were in Oklahoma, the highs are expected to be in the mid to low 80s with storms with a cold front.

[mlgamer]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

@Jayhawker85and @mlgamer models are lining up well for us to get a much need drink overnight and tomorrow.  Good luck guys!

Thanks Clinton!

Officially, only 0.17" of rain has fallen here since July 2. Seems the heaviest rain could fall in a narrow band so we'll have to see where it all sets up.

[Andie]

50 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Well I wish you in Oklahoma, the highs are expected to be in the mid to low 80s with storms with a cold front.

I’m at 103 at 4 pm

Fri-Mon looks nice. Even a low of 69 on the way!   
Push it south!

We’ll have 97-98.  Beats 103.  

[Jayhawker85]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

@Jayhawker85and @mlgamer models are lining up well for us to get a much need drink overnight and tomorrow.  Good luck guys!

Radar is starting to light up along 70 so let’s see how this training turns out! Everything around here is really drying out!

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

I’m at 103 at 4 pm

Fri-Mon looks nice. Even a low of 69 on the way!   
Push it south!

We’ll have 97-98.  Beats 103.  

Unfortunately the latest Euro model has no storms or rainfall for Texas and I barely get a half an inch.

[Clinton]

56 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Radar is starting to light up along 70 so let’s see how this training turns out! Everything around here is really drying out!

 

2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Thanks Clinton!

Officially, only 0.17" of rain has fallen here since July 2. Seems the heaviest rain could fall in a narrow band so we'll have to see where it all sets up.

 

56 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Radar is starting to light up along 70 so let’s see how this training turns out! Everything around here is really drying out!

I'm hoping a big MCS will move over us tonight.  Clouds have moved in, the temp has dropped to 87 here it feels great.

[Timmy Supercell]

I noticed there was a Tornado Warning a bit north of Indianapolis.

Clusters moving into Louisville's viewing area.

[Andie]

Low of 81* tonight but 103* tomorrow.  
Thurs/ Fri 97/98*.  
30% chance of rain.  

Well, it’s a change.  A crack in the wall of heat.  
We’ll take that.  

[Tom]

The NWS confirmed 3 very weak Tornado's Sat morning in the SW burbs.  Our area has been blessed with significant rains across pretty much the entire area.  ORD officially pick up a little over 3" of rain this weekend.  The next 7 days look like a Top Notch week of Summer weather...low DP's and plenty of Sunshine!

 

 

Now, it's time to share the wealth for our southern 1/2 of the Sub....Giddy up Boys 'n Girls!

Woah, that's quite the I-80 cut-off....can you imagine if this was Winter and what those north of I-80 would feel like?   This could very well be a glimpse of what the pattern may entail if the strong blocking signal continues.  Not to get too far ahead of myself, but something tells me the Ozark's region is going to get smashed next Winter.  I dunno what is, but I keep seeing this in my mind of weather for the future.  Lastly, I am also seeing a tremendous STJ that'll provide ample amounts of precip for the 4 corners.  Could it be a trend for the future?  I certainly hope so.

0z Euro to finish off July...Not Frying! #Relief. Good luck to all who need the rain!

0z EPS...

 

[Tom]

@IMoveALot_Weather, looks like the Monsoon will try to fire up today in the mountains.  Could you see the picturesque clouds tops from your area???

[Andie]

We need that rain and relief Tom, but experience tells me a firm no.  

The heat is on down south and I think it will drive into Sept unless you have a secret in the wings.   

86 at 4 am.  Headed for 103!….”Uncle !”

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Andie said:

We need that rain and relief Tom, but experience tells me a firm no.  

The heat is on down south and I think it will drive into Sept unless you have a secret in the wings.   

86 at 4 am.  Headed for 103!….”Uncle !”

I'll do my best and Blow it south!

[Clinton]

Rain falling this morning with a few rumbles of thunder.  .25 has fallen sso far and the rain looks to continue through the morning.   This is one of the best weekly forecast I've had in awhile.

[Andie]

Friday, Saturday, Sunday under 100. 
I’ll take it! 

No rain in sight really.  
20% chance. Mehh!

[westMJim]

20 hours ago, Niko said:

Grand Rapids area. Did you get caught in any of these storms?

No the storm were just to the south of me it did get very dark to the south but only a trace of rain here. 

[westMJim]

The power is now back on here at my house. We went to Detroit on Saturday and seen the Tigers lose to the Twins (nothing new there). The weather for the game was warm but no rain. Most of the trip home was dry until we got to just west of Lansing. That is when the rain and wind came thru. And I mean heavy rain. There was some lightning but not really a lot. It rained all the way to Grand Rapids, sometimes heavy (not as heavy as the first wave) When we pulled in to our neighborhood we noticed that there were some trees down and the next door neighbor’s covering over their hot tub was in our yard. But at that time our power was still on but no cable and internet. We went to bed around 1:30 AM. At just before 3 AM during the 2^nd storm that is when the power went out. And the power was out all day yesterday and did not get back on until just after 9 PM.  I have tossed out just about everything in the refrigerator and not sure about what to do with the stuff in the downstairs freezer. There was a large ice tray in the freezer and that was still frozen so I think most of the things in there should be OK.

The total rain fall from all of the rain on Saturday and Sunday here in MBY totaled 2.29” That broke down to 2.18” at 7 AM yesterday and 0.11” during the day yesterday. The official high at Grand Rapids on Saturday was 90 that was the 4 time it has reached 90 at GR in July. For Sunday the official H/L was 80/67 and there was a reported 0.95” of rain fall. GR did report 20% of possible sunshine The overnight low here in MBY was 58 At the current time it is sunny and 60. For today the record high of 100 was set in 1934 and the record low of 48 was set in 1928. This week looks to be generally sunny but with a chance of some showers and will be on the cool side with highs mostly in the 70’s and then some low 80’s maybe by the weekend.

[mlgamer]

Picked up 2.35" of rain overnight and this morning in MBY with rain still in the area. This is very welcome after receiving only 0.17" over the past three weeks.

[CentralNebWeather]

Absolutely beautiful straight down rain this morning. 0.70”as of 8:20 am with moderate to at times heavy rain continues. No run off. Temp of only 61. May not make it above the upper 60’s today. Wow. 

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The power is now back on here at my house. We went to Detroit on Saturday and seen the Tigers lose to the Twins (nothing new there). The weather for the game was warm but no rain. Most of the trip home was dry until we got to just west of Lansing. That is when the rain and wind came thru. And I mean heavy rain. There was some lightning but not really a lot. It rained all the way to Grand Rapids, sometimes heavy (not as heavy as the first wave) When we pulled in to our neighborhood we noticed that there were some trees down and the next door neighbor’s covering over their hot tub was in our yard. But at that time our power was still on but no cable and internet. We went to bed around 1:30 AM. At just before 3 AM during the 2^nd storm that is when the power went out. And the power was out all day yesterday and did not get back on until just after 9 PM.  I have tossed out just about everything in the refrigerator and not sure about what to do with the stuff in the downstairs freezer. There was a large ice tray in the freezer and that was still frozen so I think most of the things in there should be OK.

The total rain fall from all of the rain on Saturday and Sunday here in MBY totaled 2.29” That broke down to 2.18” at 7 AM yesterday and 0.11” during the day yesterday. The official high at Grand Rapids on Saturday was 90 that was the 4 time it has reached 90 at GR in July. For Sunday the official H/L was 80/67 and there was a reported 0.95” of rain fall. GR did report 20% of possible sunshine The overnight low here in MBY was 58 At the current time it is sunny and 60. For today the record high of 100 was set in 1934 and the record low of 48 was set in 1928. This week looks to be generally sunny but with a chance of some showers and will be on the cool side with highs mostly in the 70’s and then some low 80’s maybe by the weekend.

Never lost power and not much damage in my neighborhood.  Drove to work this morning and was quite a bit of big branches and some full trees down near Riverside Park.   I recorded 2.78" inches of rainfall throughout the event.   Much needed.  About the same amount I've received the last 60 days total.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Rain is ending as of 10:30 am. My gauge says 1.20”. The digital gauge 1 mile north of me is shown below. Another tremendous, timely rain. More chances this week. 

[Phil]

Failed to drop below 80°F last night.

[OttumwaSnomow]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Failed to drop below 80°F last night.

You see my post 87.6f 3am in farm land. Zero heat island.  Fell to 82.5 midnight  then rose until 3 am. Nuts!!

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

You see my post 87.6f 3am in farm land. Zero heat island.  Fell to 82.5 midnight  then rose until 3 am. Nuts!!

Funny that’s exactly what happened here.  Dropped to 81°F by 10PM then warmed back up to 86°F by 2AM and kind of just stayed there.

I guess the boundary layer conditions out there in IA must have advected out here. Usually only warms at night here during the winter and spring under strong warm advection, summer is more unusual.