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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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23 minutes ago, Tom said:

Getting lucky with a heavy downpour…perfect garden variety drink!

 

Beautiful. Nothing like a refreshing rainfall to cool down the atmosphere and more importantly to provide some needed water.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Interesting how MJO teleconnections to middle latitudes change even from week to week.

Looking at phase-1/phase-2 in early/mid August, the signal across the CONUS is quite warm. And grows warmer from phase-1 into phase-2. In fact it’s one of the warmest signals in the database. 😶

Week 31/32 (Aug 9-19) for phases 1-2, respectively.

9F8F9FCE-381F-4FB0-B31D-36F41D7CBEE1.pngB34CE12E-29F7-4922-872D-3010CE0371CD.pngF0501076-6057-4AA2-8C7F-8F17E4731758.png10E4A983-CEDD-4D30-B775-88196C217DA0.png

Completely oppersite to that of winter where phases 8 throught 2 support cold stormey patterns in summer it favers hot amazing how these things can mean different things in each season.

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I haven't  had a legitimate  severe thunderstorm in 2 yrs.  Quite a few downpours last summer. Very little  lightning at all!!! Feels so odd. We did have 3 severe  warnings dec, march, and one recently  none of the 3 gave me more than  .20 they were warnings because  of 50 to 70 mph gust!   Just no significant  convection  or lift here for long long periods of time, doldrums, dead. Why?

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6 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I haven't  had a legitimate  severe thunderstorm in 2 yrs.  Quite a few downpours last summer. Very little  lightning at all!!! Feels so odd. We did have 3 severe  warnings dec, march, and one recently  none of the 3 gave me more than  .20 they were warnings because  of 50 to 70 mph gust!   Just no significant  convection  or lift here for long long periods of time, doldrums, dead. Why?

Same here. This Summer has been free of any t'stm activity and not sure why either. Like you said, "Odd." I had only 1 strong storm back in June and that was it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

@Bryan1117, did you break the seal??

Picked up .15” of rain last night from the showers and thundershowers that rolled through, we could have used more rain but it was nice to get something.

Hoping that we can get a bit more rain tonight (40% chance right now). After tonight it looks like another dry spell is upcoming for us here in Eastern Nebraska.

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A bunch of smaller storms started forming again in central KY. I could get something before sunset if this all holds together.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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104 today. 
28% Humidity. 

Pretty parched. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

KFOR has 2 highs reaching 108°F late next week, I thought this was done and over with! 

It seem to my perception that Oklahoma is the center of this heat dome.  We’re 4* less but you seem to be consistent with the higher temps.  
This has to wrecking the State. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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DC has still only dropped below 70°F twice since June 29th. Cool nighttime lows have been tough to come by in recent years, especially in summer.

Muggy evening, low 80s currently with dews in the mid-70s.  

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96* at 9 pm.  

☹️

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Andie said:

It seem to my perception that Oklahoma is the center of this heat dome.  We’re 4* less but you seem to be consistent with the higher temps.  
This has to wrecking the State. 

Yes, I’ve reached 106°F today, even the strong wind did not help much!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

1:30 am. Another storm to add to the rain totals. What a July. 

IMG_0691.MOV 81.45 MB · 0 downloads  

 

The Tropics return to Holdrege!  You've had the hot hand as of late...glad to see the pattern is delivering for most on here.  Just need to see some of the others to get some much needed rain.

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@Andie, don't look now but the 0z EPS is showing a near normal to slightly BN temp pattern late next weekend into Week 2???  At the same time, what happens next will be the key to see if this coming Heat Wave has legs into the middle/end of August.  I'm seeing the EPS retrograde the Ridge over the 4 corners towards the end of Week 2 period.  In addition to the Ridge heading west, this will likely fire back up the Ring of Fire for our Central Ag Belt region.  Just like this weeks pattern is setting up.  

1.gif

 

The wetter pattern sets up later next weekend...storm chances on the rise on the periphery of the Heat Dome come Thu/Fri next week across IA/MN and points East.  

image.gif

 

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The Week 2 battle among the various global models is interesting and it will likely come down to how quickly the Ridge retrogrades westward.  For the 2nd week in a row, the JMA weeklies are gun-ho on this idea and even suggesting a quicker transition out of the Heat Wave coming up next week.  Shall we believe it?  Let's hope its right bc this would be a wonderful way to finish off Met Summer.

Week 2...seasonal for the southern Sub and WET???

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 5.55.55 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 5.59.55 AM.png

 

 

Here is where the model has not backed off and shows the PAC NW Ridge firing up and signal for a trough over the Apps.  

3.png

The Result is a weter/cooler pattern to finish off August...meanwhile, the PAC NW/SW Canada Torches...

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 6.03.51 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 6.03.42 AM.png

 

On a completely side note, lets look at the Southern Hemisphere and how chilly Australia and South America will be the next 28 days!  Winter is certainly hitting the hard this year.

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 6.07.04 AM.png

 

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Tom,  That’s looking and sounding so good!!   

If we can see temps moderate and some rain, perhaps life will turn around in Tx/Okla.  It’s been brutal.  
The heat is affecting everything.  
High today 102

Tomorrow 100. That’s the right direction.  Hoping the shortening days will benefit us soon as the sun slips south.  Come on Fall!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 81/61 there was no rain fall but it was a rather cloudy day with just 27% of possible sunshine. The overnight low both here in MBY and at GRR was 67. There was indeed a brief shower here and I did record 0.02" of rain fall. For today the record high of 100 was recorded in 1916 and the record low of 46 was recorded in 1978.

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Yet another night where we struggled to drop below 80°F. Diurnal cycle can be nonexistent at this time of year.

Muggy/gross again this AM, 85/75 as of 10AM. Probably will get to around 90 before convection gets going.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yet another night where we struggled to drop below 80°F. Diurnal cycle can be nonexistent at this time of year.

Muggy/gross again this AM, 85/75 as of 10AM. Probably will get to around 90 before convection gets going.

I was in the upper 70's at 10pm. It's clear DC gets warmer nights than my place. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Has to be one of our wettest July’s ever. BC33662F-B005-4A4A-866D-36FE139154D3.thumb.png.679d4a77dfce9d3f84aabe66bbf26fc8.png

Wow, that's amazing what the difference is a couple hours west! None of the storm chances for Lincoln have materialized. Less than 0.50" has fallen since July 7th with nothing in sight. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Wow, that's amazing what the difference is a couple hours west! None of the storm chances for Lincoln have materialized. Less than 0.50" has fallen since July 7th with nothing in sight. 

This is just very sad. I knew it had gotten dry in parts of Eastern Nebraska, but wow that’s low. We have been so lucky with these storms moving northwest to southeast. Everything is just lush green. This is not common around here in a usual late July. 

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3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Bottomed out at a respectably chilly 52 degrees here last night. Currently 69 under blazing blue sunny skies. Should be a near-perfect summer weather day with highs topping out in the upper 70s with low humidity. I could get used to this! Too bad we are heading back up to the hundred mark next week. 

I'd trade spots for the lows, but not sure about those 100's for you. 😇

Better storms there though!

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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That jet stream just didn’t get the memo!  Dip!  Dip!!   So looks like this heat will spread not retreat.  

So opinions as to WHY the jet is so far north?  And for so long?  

Clearly, we’re all going to bake.

102/3 today  

5:30pm.  Update.   107* !! 🔥🔥

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Boom!  Did the Euro Weeklies just cave to the JMA weeklies???  It appears so my friends...the worst of the Summer Heat could be knocking on the door step for our southern members!  The retrograding Ridge will be the key player here as we roll through the last month of Met Summer.  The LR signals I'm seeing post Week 2 indicate a W NAMER/AK Ridge to fire up so we'll see how we end up closing out Aug and opening up Sept.  Labor Day weekend could be down right chilly for those up north, esp @Madtownand the Northwoods peeps.  Given the Summer pattern up that way, I wouldn't doubt for it to continue.  It hasn't been really warm up there...maybe for a few times this season temps spike into the 90's but that's about it irc.

 

image.gif

 

The Monsoon is loaded...Fill up Lake Powell Mother Nature!  Do what you can do Best...Drought Busting year in the works?  Can you imagine if nature just flipped the script and reversed the Drought by next Spring?  In my opinion, something is brewing and I'm looking forward to an impressive STJ next Autumn through Winter.

 

image.png

 

 

0z EPS...continuing to cool Texas and the southern U.S...

image.png

 

 

 

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