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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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Barreling toward 105 today!  🥵

Somebody send us some cool and some rain! 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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NWS Hastings mentioned this morning of a prolonged heat wave with very little chance of rainfall as the death ridge expands. Farmers with dry land crops might be in serious trouble in a couple weeks if things don’t change. Most crops around here are irrigated, so they should be fine. However, the cost of electricity, fuel and water only adds to the cost. 

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Little hope for a hurricane to break this High pressure done. The Gulf is very warm. 90-92*.  Tropical disturbance on coast of Deep South but that is no help.   
Nothing spinning off of NW Africa.  
Grim. Really grim. 
 

7DF06103-483F-4927-90AE-B1C46A0308B7.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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28 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

You'd be forgiven for thinking our average climatological high was in the 90s this time of year.

It's not, yet here we are...

image.png

Ouch. At least your lows are semi-tolerable.

Average high here is exactly 90°F in July, and we’ve been right around that number so far. Just enough NW flow to keep things temperate (so far).

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Yesterday’s bow echo literally split this house in two in College Park. Straight line winds estimated at 90mph.

Only 8 miles from here. Winds weren’t *that* strong here, but I might’ve underestimated them based on some of the damage locally.

 

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!02 Today. a few very scattered showers to the south.  Wind will stay at the 10-15 mph range which will allow the wind generators to turn and not risk any blackouts or raising thermostats to avoid brownouts or blackouts.

The next 2 weeks will be 82 to 102/103.  No rain. Our temps will begin to decline August 18.  That's the usual date when we see Highs begin to drop and head to Fall.  Doesn't "Fall" sound wonderful !!??

I put ice cubes out in the birds water tonight and the lizard was standing there waiting like, "Hey, Lady. Hurry up!"

Craziest summer I've seen in a long time. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

I'm posting this for comedic value only.  115 in Des Moines.  119 in Omaha.  👌

 

 

sfctmax_024h.us_mw.png

Nebraska’s all time high is 118 from 1936. That was before irrigation. I think the all time temp in my town is 116. With crops putting off water, it would be pretty difficult to reach those temps. It would have to be a day with low dews. 

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Power people are talking rolling blackouts now. They’re trying asking people to raise their thermostats but if that doesn’t work…..

Some cloud cover in areas of Texas has affected solar power and winds below 10mph harms wind power.  We’re on the edge of 10 lately.  
 

This isn’t fun. But they have to keep elderly in mind so they can’t leave it off too long. Also some people need power for health devices.  
Geez Louise!  Another month of this S#!+!!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'm back in IA for a few days as my band gears up for our 2 1/2 week tour. Going all out west including Hollywood!

Out on the deck tonight and the sun is noticeably setting sooner. Also tonight is the first night that I've heard cicadas. They are loud. 

Signs of that slow progression towards Fall!

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A severe storm just popped up outside even the general t-storm risk area. Gotta love the unpredictable nature of midsummer.

78BCB264-A6CB-47E7-9DFE-9DCDE9E66E14.png

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22 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I'm back in IA for a few days as my band gears up for our 2 1/2 week tour. Going all out west including Hollywood!

Out on the deck tonight and the sun is noticeably setting sooner. Also tonight is the first night that I've heard cicadas. They are loud. 

Signs of that slow progression towards Fall!

I first heard the cicadas about a week ago. Just one the first night, now it's a symphony! Have an awesome time out west!!

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What an amazing morning here as it is a cool and comfy 61F/56F.  I had the windows open all day yesterday and had a very nice sleep with the fresh air spilling into my room.  Love these cooler Summer days/nights.

Alright, it looks like a good chance for a soaking rainfall somewhere close to MBY...both 0z Euro/Ukie have 2 ribbons of heavy precip across the MW/Lower Lakes region.  

image.png

image.png

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5 minutes ago, Tom said:

What an amazing morning here as it is a cool and comfy 61F/56F.  I had the windows open all day yesterday and had a very nice sleep with the fresh air spilling into my room.  Love these cooler Summer days/nights.

Alright, it looks like a good chance for a soaking rainfall somewhere close to MBY...both 0z Euro/Ukie have 2 ribbons of heavy precip across the MW/Lower Lakes region.  

image.png

image.png

I like how the Euro has consistently brought a complex of storms near me Saturday night.  A 1/2 to 1 inch of rain would be huge before the sizzle sets in next week.

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I like how the Euro has consistently brought a complex of storms near me Saturday night.  A 1/2 to 1 inch of rain would be huge before the sizzle sets in next week.

0z EPS agrees!  BTW, the trends in the mid and LR are looking might nice for our region and for most of the MW/Upper MW/GL's.

 

image.gif

 

 

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Speaking of the LR, both the JMA/CFSv2 pretty much agree in a similar pattern for the rest of July as both globals see the ridging to shift west allowing for more troughs to traverse the northern and eastern Sub.

 

2.png

image.png

The result is a more seasonal to, at times, BN temp pattern and a more active one as NW Flow locks in for quite a while the way I see it.  

JMA Week 2...

Temp...

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.05.25 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.15.55 AM.png

JMA Week 3-4...boy, this data is certainly implying that the worst of the Summer Heat could be over as we flip into August for our Central/Southern Plains members.  @Andie @Iceresistance and the rest of the Plains members could use some cooler temps and precip.  The way I see the pattern evolving to close out July it'll be a step down from the heat out west and south.  I firmly believe the amplifying N. A. 500mb patter will allow for stronger Summer CF's to sweep and penetrate farther south, esp as we get into early Aug.  Things are looking promising.

@Phil, you may escape any significant spells of oppressive Heat and Humidity.  I just don't see it happening for you this Summer and @Timmy Supercell.  To much of a wet signal for our eastern SUB is suggesting a bonafide enjoyable mid/late Summer pattern.

Temp/Precip...

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.08.50 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.08.58 AM.png

 

 

 

5.png

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Speaking of the LR, both the JMA/CFSv2 pretty much agree in a similar pattern for the rest of July as both globals see the ridging to shift west allowing for more troughs to traverse the northern and eastern Sub.

 

2.png

image.png

The result is a more seasonal to, at times, BN temp pattern and a more active one as NW Flow locks in for quite a while the way I see it.  

JMA Week 2...

Temp...

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.05.25 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.15.55 AM.png

JMA Week 3-4...boy, this data is certainly implying that the worst of the Summer Heat could be over as we flip into August for our Central/Southern Plains members.  @Andie @Iceresistance and the rest of the Plains members could use some cooler temps and precip.  The way I see the pattern evolving to close out July it'll be a step down from the heat out west and south.  I firmly believe the amplifying N. A. 500mb patter will allow for stronger Summer CF's to sweep and penetrate farther south, esp as we get into early Aug.  Things are looking promising.

@Phil, you may escape any significant spells of oppressive Heat and Humidity.  I just don't see it happening for you this Summer and @Timmy Supercell.  To much of a wet signal for our eastern SUB is suggesting a bonafide enjoyable mid/late Summer pattern.

Temp/Precip...

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.08.50 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.08.58 AM.png

 

 

 

5.png

I hope you’re right man. But my expectations are very low for this pattern.

Problem is the southern Plains are so dry now that a large proportion of insolation is going into specific heating (vs evaporation/latent heating) and rapidly warming that airmass as a result. That hot air is then advected through/under the base of the trough, so it ends up warm anyway (as indicated by the EPS, and GEFS/GEPS as well).

La Niña doesn’t wanna let go. 😓 

FA5DAABE-DBD0-415B-90A8-127D6486EE5C.gif

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/62 there was a trace of reported rain fall and there was a reported 41% of sunshine. So far the overnight low here in MBY was 61 and at this time it is partly cloudy and 63. For today the average H/L remains at 83/63 the record high of 102 was set in 1936 and the record low of 45 was set in 1950.

We are now nearing the halfway point of July 2022 and so far this has been a very typical July. The mean at Grand Rapids is 71.9 that is a departure from average of -0.8 officially there has been 1.07” of rain fall that is down from the average that should be 1.59” The high for the month so far is 90 set on the 4th and the low so far is 52 set on the 10th.  At Holland their departure for the month is +0.5 At Lansing the departure is +0.4 and Muskegon their departure is at +1.7.

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Thanks Tom!   
It’s encouraging.  We need very much to drop to normals at the least.  The return of clouds and rain potential would be an answered prayer.  
 

Began our day with a Southside Ft Worth Service Center reporting a planned blackout (1 hr) to conserve power.  These rolling blackouts are unnerving in these temps.  
If we fail to have at least 10 mph winds our wind power places us in high potential for rolling blackouts.  Plenty of solar but we need the wind to meet demand in this heat.    
 

102-3 today.  Same ol/ Same ol. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Speaking of the LR, both the JMA/CFSv2 pretty much agree in a similar pattern for the rest of July as both globals see the ridging to shift west allowing for more troughs to traverse the northern and eastern Sub.

 

2.png

image.png

The result is a more seasonal to, at times, BN temp pattern and a more active one as NW Flow locks in for quite a while the way I see it.  

JMA Week 2...

Temp...

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.05.25 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.15.55 AM.png

JMA Week 3-4...boy, this data is certainly implying that the worst of the Summer Heat could be over as we flip into August for our Central/Southern Plains members.  @Andie @Iceresistance and the rest of the Plains members could use some cooler temps and precip.  The way I see the pattern evolving to close out July it'll be a step down from the heat out west and south.  I firmly believe the amplifying N. A. 500mb patter will allow for stronger Summer CF's to sweep and penetrate farther south, esp as we get into early Aug.  Things are looking promising.

@Phil, you may escape any significant spells of oppressive Heat and Humidity.  I just don't see it happening for you this Summer and @Timmy Supercell.  To much of a wet signal for our eastern SUB is suggesting a bonafide enjoyable mid/late Summer pattern.

Temp/Precip...

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.08.50 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-14 at 5.08.58 AM.png

 

 

 

5.png

Other than May and December, most of the time I have been here is running either close to normal or cooler. 

NW flow is no stranger already, in fact some of the derechos/MCS events came in from that direction. I can get some 90+ weather in that directiional flow but no major heatwaves under that as I understand it.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS agrees!  BTW, the trends in the mid and LR are looking might nice for our region and for most of the MW/Upper MW/GL's.

 

image.gif

 

 

I see July isn't done raining here at my place. There's another robust convective setup beginning this weekend and going forward. Several more days in a row of storms, I can see us finishing July considerably over normal precip. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Gorgeous weather on tap for S MI today ,w temps in the 70s and lows tanite dropping into the comfy 50s. Some needed rain and storms on Sunday and possibly lingering into Monday. After that folks, it gets HOT and sunny for the rest of the week!!!

 

Also, I've been noticing that the tropics are a little quiet. I know peak season is in September, but not even a disturbance to be found anywhere in the Atlantic. Watch we get nailed in Sept and October.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Far Out!  I get to report some real weather.

North Texas is developing some strong storms. Hail and High Winds.  Storms are moving SW. It will miss me, but it's a plus for the atmosphere. 

30% chance of rain. It is very dark to my east and cloudy today. Sitting at 90* at 12:30.  Wow.  

Even if we don't get a drop. It's weather, rain.  Rain!😆

Edit:  wind picked up  gusty to 20 mph or so.  Thunder, overcast.  Did I die?  A gust of cool air! 
Hazy, likely grass fire.  That’s Texas!

Actually raining   😮  It smells SO good   and cracking thunder. Wow

81* !

Ft. Worth.png
 

 

8A5FAD6E-493B-4FA5-ACA9-C6D061DF7C19.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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40 minutes ago, Andie said:

Far Out!  I get to report some real weather.

North Texas is developing some strong storms. Hail and High Winds.  Storms are moving SW. It will miss me, but it's a plus for the atmosphere. 

30% chance of rain. It is very dark to my east and cloudy today. Sitting at 90* at 12:30.  Wow.  

Even if we don't get a drop. It's weather, rain.  Rain!😆

Edit:  wind picked up  gusty to 20 mph or so.  Thunder, overcast.  Did I die?  A gust of cool air! 
Hazy, likely grass fire.  That’s Texas!

Ft. Worth.png
 

 

8A5FAD6E-493B-4FA5-ACA9-C6D061DF7C19.png

You can see the outflow boundary nicely on this radar loop...

image.gif

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It got really windy all of a sudden.   
I stay out under the patio.  Cracking thunder. Bolt lightning.  Quite a show.  It’s 81* at 1:30 pm. Wow. .

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Woah!   
It’s 86* at 5 pm!  

It’s kind of like having an out of body experience. 
Back to 100* tomorrow, but that’s tomorrow!  😆

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The model trends over the past 24 hours for mid next week are lining up with what I had in mind.  The NW Flow aloft, stronger troughs will mean the pattern should remain active for parts of the Upper MW/MW/GL's.  The system showing up next week reminds me of a potent N Stream hybrid Clipper.  That'll be an interesting system to track and suddenly the models are tracking this storm system a lot farther south compared to previous days.

0z UKIE...looking good for the farmers in the MW next few days....

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z Euro...pretty much agrees...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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I'd be lying to you if I wasn't to say that I'm pleased to see what the models are now starting to suggest for the 2nd half of July.  Look how bad the Euro was just 3 days ago for the target period of 0z 7/22, esp for the Upper MW/MW region...and also pay attn to W NAMER...

2.png

vs last night's 0z run for the same period...the result will end up being an active NW Flow plus cooler/seasonal temps...the LR GEFS had a better idea and so did the CFSv2 which leads me to believe that those models have a bit of a lock step on the Euro/EPS.

3.png

 

Temp comparison for the aforementioned periods above...

image.png

 

vs current 0z EPS run...I mean, look how blow torch it was for all of the CONUS and now???  I'm sure it will trend cooler for the northern 1/2 of the Sub as we get closer.  Except for the SE region and West Coast of the CONUS, it ain't handling the blocks/troughs to well in the LR.

image.png

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We snagged a low of 76. Not bad. 

Back into the oven today.  

100* High.  Yes. It’s still July!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday was yet another great summer day in our area. At Grand Rapids the official H/L was 81/61 there was 49% of possible sunshine and there was no rain fall. The overnight low in MBY was 59 and at the current time there are some clouds and 61. The average H/L remains 83/63 the record high of 95 was set in the years of 1995,2006 and 2013 the record low of 47 was set in 1987. There is a good amount of rain is Wisconsin at this time and that is sliding to the SE. So there is a good chance that we will get some rain today. Not sure how much but most areas should see some much needed rain fall.

 

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I got .36 this am. Short term models nailed it!  Really eeking by nicely in July so far 2.74.  So far am barely  fending off the drought.  No excess rain but  light rains have led phenomenal  crops my area. Lawns are limping along.  Only 10  90 degree days so far, desmoines  is at 18 days?   Going back to may the heat has been centered  further west and south. Hopefully  we can get to September  with these occasional  breaks.

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Very nice and cloudy morning with temps in the upper 70s.  The rain did exactly what it was modeled to and that was to make it to my door step and then run into a wall.  The Euro has nudged east just a little taking me out of any beneficial rain tomorrow night, maybe it will shift back.  All in all a nice weekend coming up.

 293181155_419729796854690_9065221631992602670_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p280x280&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=kSENC-qt-KMAX83UCE-&_nc_ht=scontent-msp1-1.xx&edm=AEDRbFQEAAAA&oh=00_AT8eHx-iLqd7kIh3y98qkx5GDOdb7LNUyXaYGp-LCIFZAQ&oe=62D6CEB2

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This morning's rain has been better across eastern Iowa than some models predicted.  Most runs of the HRRR, late yesterday, were down to a tenth or two, at best.  So far I'm at 0.64" and there is more good rain moving in.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Lots of talk about Cicadas on here and I found this to be interesting on Terry Swails blog.

There is a weather folklore saying that you can determine the first frost after hearing the first dog day cicada sing. I mentioned earlier that Steve heard his in Lowden, Iowa on July 10th, which he claims is 5 to 6 days later than usual. There are 3 variations of the folklore saying: the frost will occur 12 weeks after, 90 days after and 3 months after the first song. Based on the 10th of July, the first frost would occur as follows under one of those guidelines:

 

 

 

12 weeks - September 20th

 

90 days - October 8th

 

3 months - October 10th

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lots of talk about Cicadas on here and I found this to be interesting on Terry Swails blog.

There is a weather folklore saying that you can determine the first frost after hearing the first dog day cicada sing. I mentioned earlier that Steve heard his in Lowden, Iowa on July 10th, which he claims is 5 to 6 days later than usual. There are 3 variations of the folklore saying: the frost will occur 12 weeks after, 90 days after and 3 months after the first song. Based on the 10th of July, the first frost would occur as follows under one of those guidelines:

 

 

 

12 weeks - September 20th

 

90 days - October 8th

 

3 months - October 10th

I heard mine about a week ago and it seemed like my entire neighborhood was a symphony of cicadas.  Interesting tid bit and one I will put on my calendar.

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