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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

1.10” in less than an hour as of 10 pm. It was sure needed.

Nice glad you scored some rain.  Looks like some of that might make it down my way.  Most short range models wanna keep it north but we shall see.

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Later in August maybe? La Niña will rule with an iron fist but could be some tropical activity or undercutting of the ridge by then?

If not, then the torch continues.

If this true, another 4-5 weeks of this will not just trash our crops but many an air conditioner.  I hope mine makes it.  If not, I’ll be living in a long stay hotel to survive till it’s fixed.  
This hit nerve wracking for all of us weeks ago.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Out of nowhere, we are getting rocked in Central Nebraska as of 9:30 pm. Million dollar or more rain. Prayers answered. 

 

IMG_0666.MOV 62.24 MB · 1 download

 

I was watching that severe line of storms form before I went to bed last night and thought for sure it would back build and fill in around Holdrege.  Glad to see the blessings from Mother Nature!

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The Monsoon has fired back up in the Valley of the Sun the past couple evenings and it FINALLY delivered rain in Fountain Hills.  I'm pleased to hear that the northeast valley got some much welcomed rains.  Check out this E - W flow across the Valley and how the Outflow boundary sparks and impressive storm cluster that headed due west!

What I love about the Monsoon season, is it produces a wide variety of thunderstorm activity.  It's quite fascinating how this time of year storms form in so many different ways and take untraditional tracks.

 

1.gif

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Well, well, well....looky what we have here....suddenly, the Euro is showing more of a suppressed pattern come late this week into the weekend.  I'm seeing the "Ring of Fire" return for places that need it most, our farmers and growers, smack dab across the central ag belt.  I'm really encouraged to see the EPS trend cooler/wetter for the northern/eastern Sub in the 5-10 day period.  My target period was later this weekend for the NW Flow active pattern to return once we get past this burst of Heat for NE/KS/MO/IA members.  The "Step Down" is looking to occur late this weekend into the last week of July.

image.gif

 

@Andierelief looks to be on the calendar later this month into early Aug.  IMHO, the pressure pattern setting up will set up a a boundary scenario where you could see the GOM come into play Bigly.  I smell some "Home Brewed" tropical development.  JMA has been lock steady for a Phase 1, maybe Phase 2 scenario very late month into Aug.

JMAN_phase_51m_full.gif

Screen Shot 2022-07-17 at 5.20.44 AM.png

 

 

 

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Yesterday was a very typical mid July day. With a H/L of 83/64. There was no rain fall and a reported 34% of sunshine. Here in MBY the overnight low was 67 and the official overnight low was 66. For today the record high of 99 was set in the hot July of 2012 and the record low of 48 was set in 1958.

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We’re under our usual heat warning.  
They differ between 104-107. Like it matters.  
I have seen only 1 bird this last month. Seriously.  They’ve all fled to the lakes.  
I keep water out for lizards!  They stay. 
 

This is the worst I’ve ever lived through and I’m no kid. This no doubt, will be an Ag disaster, driving prices higher and farmers and ranchers deeper in debt.  We all need a break from this. Plenty of rain and cooler temps.  
104 officially today, but it’ll get higher.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 7/16/2022 at 9:29 AM, Andie said:

From interview with ERCOT manager with Houston Chronicle. 

“To keep up with record-breaking demand this summer, ERCOT has called on thermal generators (think natural gas, coal and nuclear) to run as much as possible, including having some humming in the background just in case their power is needed in tight grid conditions.”

The Manger is concerned about the thermal generators as they are older machines.  This is so nerve wracking for older or medically challenged residents.  I have high blood pressure and an ongoing inoperable serious issue with my back.   This is really bad news. It just gets worse. Winter, now summer.  Summer being very dangerous.  We need “more dispatchable generation.”
Worth a read………..

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/ERCOT-didn-t-think-the-Texas-summer-would-be-as-17299561.php?utm_campaign=CMS%20Sharing%20Tools%20(Premium)&utm_source=share-by-email&utm_medium=email

We need high quality investment in restoration, updating and maintaining/managing these systems as they are still proven time and again to be the best and most stable power generation systems we have even at the age of the tech they are built on. 

If we aren't learning the differences in proof vs ideology in these events and times of real extremes, by now, we don't or haven't gained anything. 

That said, this is going to be a test for an entire region.

When our states do something together, we give it a hundred and ten degrees...er percent, I mean. 😂

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Last night took a lot longer to cool down. It was still 77 when I was going to bed around 1am. 

The low was briefly 72. Storms coming into the vicinity and been overcast all morning. 

KJKL_loop (33).gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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24 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Last night took a lot longer to cool down. It was still 77 when I was going to bed around 1am. 

The low was briefly 72. Storms coming into the vicinity and been overcast all morning. 

KJKL_loop (33).gif

A shame it’s so early in the day. Could have been a solid severe day if this shortwave had waited 6 hours.

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29 minutes ago, Phil said:

A shame it’s so early in the day. Could have been a solid severe day if this shortwave had waited 6 hours.

See this funny looking map today? 😜

2022-07-17 12_00_33-Storm Prediction Center Jul 17, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

We need high quality investment in restoration, updating and maintaining/managing these systems as they are still proven time and again to be the best and most stable power generation systems we have even at the age of the tech they are built on. 

If we aren't learning the differences in proof vs ideology in these events and times of real extremes, by now, we don't or haven't gained anything. 

That said, this is going to be a test for an entire region.

When our states do something together, we give it a hundred and ten degrees...er percent, I mean. 😂

I went out a stood on our patio when it stormed this week. The thunder and smell of rain lifted my spirits. 

This week will be a real test on many levels.  The state has been praying “en masse” for temps to drop and rain.  
It’s just been brutal as you know too.  
When will it drop below 100*?

D4A76311-E4C7-432F-BBC9-FF5019CFBC34.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Just finished mowing the yard, it's a sticky 87 degrees with a dewpoint of 75.  I figure this will be the last time I mow in July, 100 degree heat starts Tuesday and no rain insight until the first of August.   The local corn crop will suffer and some who have been even drier will have a complete loss.

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Portugal saw 116.6* last week. 
France is battling high 90’s and massive wildfires as London is hitting 99.  Very little cloud cover over Western Europe. 

We’re not alone. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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29 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Just finished mowing the yard, it's a sticky 87 degrees with a dewpoint of 75.  I figure this will be the last time I mow in July, 100 degree heat starts Tuesday and no rain insight until the first of August.   The local corn crop will suffer and some who have been even drier will have a complete loss.

If you have chill neighbors, mow at 6am. Don't wanna be one of those guys with notes from the city on your front door telling you to keep up the yard. August is no better than July in most places. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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33 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

If you have chill neighbors, mow at 6am. Don't wanna be one of those guys with notes from the city on your front door telling you to keep up the yard. August is no better than July in most places. 

No worries about that my closes neighbor is 1/2 mile away lol.

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No worries about that my closes neighbor is 1/2 mile away lol.

That makes it even better then! 

I've always had just an average street, feet away from the next home over. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Despite the crazy temps the GFS keeps throwing out for eastern Nebraska, we don't have a single day forecast over 100 here the next 7 days. Again shows how hard it is to hit 100 here.

Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 68. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 70. West northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 94.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 67.
Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 70.
Friday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.
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5 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Despite the crazy temps the GFS keeps throwing out for eastern Nebraska, we don't have a single day forecast over 100 here the next 7 days. Again shows how hard it is to hit 100 here.

Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 68. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 70. West northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 94.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 67.
Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 70.
Friday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.

It's the humidity in this area. Doesn't really matter when the heat index is 110

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10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Despite the crazy temps the GFS keeps throwing out for eastern Nebraska, we don't have a single day forecast over 100 here the next 7 days. Again shows how hard it is to hit 100 here.

Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 68. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 70. West northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 94.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 67.
Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 70.
Friday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.

No more 114 forecast for the 23rd.

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6 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Despite the crazy temps the GFS keeps throwing out for eastern Nebraska, we don't have a single day forecast over 100 here the next 7 days. Again shows how hard it is to hit 100 here.

Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 68. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 70. West northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 94.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 67.
Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 70.
Friday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.

The GFS is notorious for being too high with temps and not taking into account the moisture. Pivots are running like crazy and the moisture in the air is high. I don't doubt will see 100 at some point in time during this heat wave. I just pray we get relief sooner than later!

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107 the next 3 days. 

Who do I talk to to dial this back?! 😤

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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7 hours ago, Andie said:

I went out a stood on our patio when it stormed this week. The thunder and smell of rain lifted my spirits. 

This week will be a real test on many levels.  The state has been praying “en masse” for temps to drop and rain.  
It’s just been brutal as you know too.  
When will it drop below 100*?

D4A76311-E4C7-432F-BBC9-FF5019CFBC34.jpeg

Hoping you get a few drop downs right on the outside of that forecast, but core of heat is going to stay there for awhile yet. 

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4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Despite the crazy temps the GFS keeps throwing out for eastern Nebraska, we don't have a single day forecast over 100 here the next 7 days. Again shows how hard it is to hit 100 here.

Lincoln hit 100 or higher 17 times in 2012 (Omaha 11 times). Average is 4 for Lincoln, 2 for Omaha. So far this year is once for both cities. A lot of days in the mid to upper 90s though and we'll be adding on to that this week

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Lincoln hit 100 or higher 17 times in 2012 (Omaha 11 times). Average is 4 for Lincoln, 2 for Omaha. So far this year is once for both cities. A lot of days in the mid to upper 90s though and we'll be adding on to that this week

I saw 20 days of 100F here in Ottumwa  Iowa  (unofficial). 2012 was  almost unprecedented  except 1936. I think there was 50 to 60 days over 90 in 2012. Currently  I havent seen a 100 reading for well over 3 full years. So far in 2022 I am sitting  at 10 days of 90 or higher.  Saturday  didnt make 80.  So far in SE iowa the heat has been hype!  Also lower dewpoints  and humidity  over previous  2 summers. I guess thats all gonna change now!

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1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The Pacific Ocean

Awesome. Let’s go!    
Has to be cooler than  here!!  
 

I’ve stopped concerning myself with numbers. It’s 100+. 

However, that said. They’re calling for 108 tomorrow.  
Yeah. 
It just keeps giving.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Another cool radar loop of the PHX valley that got hit last evening by a round of storms and whats neat about this is how the cluster of cells dissipates and creates a vortex spin at the tail end.  I've noticed this has been a common theme the past few days.

  1.gif

 

I don't recall seeing the entire valley under a severe thunderstorm warning before!

Screen Shot 2022-07-18 at 4.09.47 AM.png

 

Here's a cool wall of dust inundating the SE valley...

Screen Shot 2022-07-18 at 4.10.51 AM.png

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Is Relief coming down the piper???  I am now strongly confident that by this weekend we will see a summer CF penetrate the Heat Dome and bring relief for the central Plains/Upper MW members.  0z EPS keeps trending cooler for my target period starting this Fri into the following week.  Not only the Euro, but the rest of the globals are starting to "see" the Ring of Fire igniting this weekend across parts of the MW.

0z UKIE...

qpf_acc.us_c.png

 

0z Euro...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z EPS 5-day temp mean....

2.gif

 

The Fri-Sun period could get interesting...I smell a Severe Wx outbreak...

3.gif

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