July 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Andie]

I’m in the exceptional area.  
haven’t seen a real rain in so long I’ve forgotten what it feels like.   Miss the smell and the cool!!

Going to 102* today. What’s new!?

 

[Clinton]

Severe risk area seems to have been expanded in all directions for today.  Very large area for this time of year.

[Timmy Supercell]

SO close. The line went through here but sort of focused its strength on two regions of it. There was no organized cloud formations. Still I get to hear some rumbles for about an hour and it rained for a little.

[Clinton]

KCI has reached 100 degrees for the first time in 4 years.  Currently 101 in mby and it's the second time this week I've hit 100 or above.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

SO close. The line went through here but sort of focused its strength on two regions of it. There was no organized cloud formations. Still I get to hear some rumbles for about an hour and it rained for a little.

Yeah I saw that thing kinda gapped you. Tough luck.

I think the Appalachians are gonna kill it before it reaches here. Lots of downsloping. But could be wrong..the derecho of 2012 was largely unexpected until the last minute, and that was a similarly hot/zonal pattern.

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Reached 90°F at 955AM. Takes forever to cool at night then heats up instantly once the sun rises.

I was 90.1F at 10:01 am. 96.1F at noon and 98.4F now. Absolutely  zero  heat island affect. Im on a half wooded farm  in rural Iowa. Dewpoint 74.8F which is actually  not bad for here. Its getting  so dry the dewpoint  isnt hovering either side of 80!!!! Trust me east coast doesn't  have anything  on Southeast  Iowa

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Its getting so dry the dewpoint  isnt hovering either side of 80!!!! Trust me east coast doesn't  have anything  on Southeast  Iowa

I think it depends on the pattern. The dewpoint hit 87°F here during that awful 2011 heatwave, and have recorded dozens of days with 80+ dews since 2010.

Looking at climatology for July, average dewpoints/temps are pretty comparable between here & IA.

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think it depends on the pattern. The dewpoint hit 87°F here during that awful 2011 heatwave, and have recorded dozens of days with 80+ dews since 2010.

Looking at climatology for July, average dewpoints/temps are pretty comparable between here & IA.

 

I lived in Maryland  and Pennsylvania  1964 to  2008. Was out of usa  5 yrs in 1990s.    I never saw 111F that I saw here in 2012. Saw over 100 20 days that summer and 50 plus days over 90.  I watch the mid Atlantic  area closely and a 80 dewpoint  is rare.  Trust me in Southeast  iowa it isnt!

[CentralNebWeather]

Cold front on my doorstep at 4:50 pm. Storms firing just to the west. Hope to get something in the next hour. Many more chances in the next week. 

[Phil]

Potomac River water temperature hit 90°F today. This is at little falls, which is a few miles downriver from here.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01646500/#parameterCode=00010F&timeSeriesId=252060&period=P1Y

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I lived in Maryland  and Pennsylvania  1964 to  2008. Was out of usa  5 yrs in 1990s.    I never saw 111F that I saw here in 2012. Saw over 100 20 days that summer and 50 plus days over 90.  I watch the mid Atlantic  area closely and a 80 dewpoint  is rare.  Trust me in Southeast  iowa it isnt!

Where in Maryland did you live?

HUGE difference between Frederick/Parrs Ridge and down here on the fall line, adjacent to the Potomac, surrounded by streams and boglands.

[OttumwaSnomow]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Where in Maryland did you live?

HUGE difference between Frederick/Parrs Ridge and down here on the fall line, adjacent to the Potomac, surrounded by streams and boglands.

Thats true. Although  downtown  Frederick  has become quite the urban heat island along monocacy river, concrete  jungle and downsloping from surrounding  hills and Appalachians. But yes parrs ridge  cooler. But I lived different  locations, thurmont and Gettysburg  etcm rarely  ever saw 100 plus. Never saw 80 dewpoint those areas.  Out here its not heat island it the real deal.  Summer 2012  would blow most my east coast friends minds.  That was very comparable  to dust bowl years 1934 and 1936.

[OttumwaSnomow]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro spreads good rains over some of the areas that need it badly the next 10 days.

Lol, accept large areas of south and west Iowa. Rinse and repeat.

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Thats true. Although  downtown  Frederick  has become quite the urban heat island along monocacy river, concrete  jungle and downsloping from surrounding  hills and Appalachians. But yes parrs ridge  cooler. But I lived different  locations, thurmont and Gettysburg  etcm rarely  ever saw 100 plus. Never saw 80 dewpoint those areas.  Out here its not heat island it the real deal.  Summer 2012  would blow most my east coast friends minds.  That was very comparable  to dust bowl years 1934 and 1936.

Well that explains it. The areas you lived are in an entirely different climate zone! Much cooler and drier year round up there. And definitely lower dewpoints in the summer. Oh, and more snowfall in the winter! Just a much better climate in general, lol.️ 

DC is a heat island, but not here. In fact we’re surrounded by protected old growth forestland, which encompasses the entire Potomac-Cabin John River watershed.

Transpiration from the massive biomass here is enormous, such that even dry advection + downsloping often fails to mix out low level moisture in the summer. But the upside is it keeps temperatures down especially on calm days.

[Phil]

Collapsing convection putting down a strong gust front, currently rolling out of the mountains.

Looks like mostly 40-50mph, with a few 55mph reports out in Lovettsville/Brunswick.

[OttumwaSnomow]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Collapsing convection putting down a strong gust front, currently rolling out of the mountains.

Looks like mostly 40-50mph, with a few 55mph reports out in Lovettsville/Brunswick.

Phil, I thought  the models had that dying out?

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah I saw that thing kinda gapped you. Tough luck.

I think the Appalachians are gonna kill it before it reaches here. Lots of downsloping. But could be wrong..the derecho of 2012 was largely unexpected until the last minute, and that was a similarly hot/zonal pattern.

The 2012 derecho did some damage here for sure, that's one of the few events locals will remember by date.

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Phil, I thought  the models had that dying out?

A day or two back there wasn't supposed to be anything in eastern KY until late Sun night into Mon morning.

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Phil, I thought  the models had that dying out?

Yeah they did. And it is dying out, but in doing so it’s putting out a gust front.

Had ~ 40mph here, but no rain.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

The 2012 derecho did some damage here for sure, that's one of the few events locals will remember by date.

That was a monster. Had 10-15 minutes of hurricane force gusts here, up to 90mph. Mature oak trees snapped 15ft off the ground, parts of roofs blown off, siding shredded, etc. It was nuts.

It was also one of the most impressive displays of lightning I’ve ever seen, second only to the lightning barrage of July 2008. 

[Timmy Supercell]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah they did. And it is dying out, but in doing so it’s putting out a gust front.

Had ~ 40mph here, but no rain.

I had a couple outflow gusts 40-45 (airport will tell you only 18, I was shocked it wasn't at least 35).

It was enough to make a small mess of leaves and twigs on the ground.

[Hawkeye]

Once again, the NWS had upper 90s in our forecast for today and we only hit 93º.  Cedar Rapids almost never reaches the upper 90s.  Heck, Cedar Rapids has only, officially, hit 90º twice this month, once back on July 5th (90º) and again today.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like 0.40-0.80” around my area and other parts of the county. Good way to start off a week of rain chances. Crops and yards look great. Many years it has gotten bone dry by now. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I had a couple outflow gusts 40-45 (airport will tell you only 18, I was shocked it wasn't at least 35).

It was enough to make a small mess of leaves and twigs on the ground.

That airport station seems wonky. Low with wind gusts and maybe too high with dewpoints? Not to mention the sporadic outages.

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

That airport station seems wonky. Low with wind gusts and maybe too high with dewpoints? Not to mention the sporadic outages.

Sometimes their humidity and dewpoints will go blank for several rows too. lol 

In a couple of the June storms they recorded 50+ mph I think. 

[Clinton]

31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Looks like 0.40-0.80” around my area and other parts of the county. Good way to start off a week of rain chances. Crops and yards look great. Many years it has gotten bone dry by now. 

What a change from where you were in May, it's not often it gets wetter in your area or anywhere in the middle of the county as summer goes on.

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Once again, the NWS had upper 90s in our forecast for today and we only hit 93º.  Cedar Rapids almost never reaches the upper 90s.  Heck, Cedar Rapids has only, officially, hit 90º twice this month, once back on July 5th (90º) and again today.

How many 90 degree days do you  have so far?  Im at 15. Today my high was 98.4. High  for the season  was 99.7. But most days in 80s, some 70s. For the below  average  amounts of rain the temps haven't  been that hot. Frankly  imo for eastern Iowa its been alot of hype. Ive seen way hotter and more humid summers here in Ottumwa  area.

[Hawkeye]

46 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

How many 90 degree days do you  have so far?  Im at 15.

Cedar Rapids has officially hit 90º ten times this year.

[snowstorm83]

Hit 102 today but the 10 day forecast is the most tolerable we’ve seen since early June, no 90s at all. Could probably use the rain too, basically hasn’t rained in almost 3 weeks 

[Grizzcoat]

KDSM with 99F for high temp today. The mean # of 100F+ days in a summer is 2 at KDSM. Have had only 5 since 2012.

It's almost impossible to break high temp records in July at DSM, mostly thanks to to  1930's. 20 of the 31 days are max temps records from that decade. Before 2012 when a record was finally broken - on today's date- July 23rd at 105F-- the last time a record max temp was set in July was 57 years earlier in 1955.  So only one max temp record broken at KDSM in 65 years in the month of July.

[Tom]

Woke up for the 2nd night in a row to the sounds of thunder and rain drops hitting my sky light.  While not as strong as yesterday, these storms seem to be training somewhat and back building in E IA/W IL.  It'll be a rainy Sunday morning...

Max temp hit 86F yesterday and not the low 90's that were being forecast.  #Bonus. It was a fine day with high anvils from distant storms that obscured the sunlight later in the afternoon.   The strong SW breeze made it a delightful evening to be outside and enjoy a couple drinks with family.  

[Tom]

Not gonna lie, I kinda wish I was out in AZ right now to experience this Monsoon pattern.  Looks like a bountiful week of precip for the entire state!

You don't see a forecast like this often for the "Valley of the Sun"...

 

As mentioned yesterday, you can get DP's in the 70's....Yuma, AZ takes the cake for the highest DP in the state!  

[Clinton]

The heat advisory for much of the KC area including my place has been canceled!  Still going to be a warm one here with a high of 97, as the cold front won't arrive until later this afternoon.  I have rain and temps in the low 80s in the forecast for tomorrow!

[Clinton]

10 day GEFS and EPS look good for many to see some rain especially the drought stricken areas in southern Missouri.  Hopefully some relief for Texas will come in the form of a tropical system in August but it's not showing up yet.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Not gonna lie, I kinda wish I was out in AZ right now to experience this Monsoon pattern.  Looks like a bountiful week of precip for the entire state!

You don't see a forecast like this often for the "Valley of the Sun"...

 

As mentioned yesterday, you can get DP's in the 70's....Yuma, AZ takes the cake for the highest DP in the state!  

Some pretty incredible PWATs being projected over SW AZ next week. Over 2” for several days in a row. Can’t imagine that’s common down there. 

[Andie]

I have family in Tucson and it’s raining. It’s monsoon.  I’ve seen big ones and small ones. They’re getting a good one this year but the natives aren’t impressed. It varies.  

[Hawkeye]

This weekend has been a big dud for my area and points south.  I will likely finish July about 2" below average rain.

[Phil]

Nice head fake from mother nature this week.

The “ouch pattern” returns in early August.

[Andie]

Deja vu all over again.  

I feel like I’m in some early 90’s  “MTV” Devo loop!! .

“Whip it good!… Crack that whip!”  

Hot, Dry, 102*…. “You must whip it!” 
 

( You know you won’t be able to get that out of head now! )

[Hawkeye]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nice head fake from mother nature this week.

The “ouch pattern” returns in early August.

I'll believe it when I see it.  The GFS, and maybe a couple other models, predicted major heat across my region during the second half of July, but it was nonsense.  We've hit 90º once and the rest of the month will be quite pleasant.