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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

1:30 am. Another storm to add to the rain totals. What a July. 

IMG_0691.MOV 81.45 MB · 0 downloads  

 

The Tropics return to Holdrege!  You've had the hot hand as of late...glad to see the pattern is delivering for most on here.  Just need to see some of the others to get some much needed rain.

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@Andie, don't look now but the 0z EPS is showing a near normal to slightly BN temp pattern late next weekend into Week 2???  At the same time, what happens next will be the key to see if this coming Heat Wave has legs into the middle/end of August.  I'm seeing the EPS retrograde the Ridge over the 4 corners towards the end of Week 2 period.  In addition to the Ridge heading west, this will likely fire back up the Ring of Fire for our Central Ag Belt region.  Just like this weeks pattern is setting up.  

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The wetter pattern sets up later next weekend...storm chances on the rise on the periphery of the Heat Dome come Thu/Fri next week across IA/MN and points East.  

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The Week 2 battle among the various global models is interesting and it will likely come down to how quickly the Ridge retrogrades westward.  For the 2nd week in a row, the JMA weeklies are gun-ho on this idea and even suggesting a quicker transition out of the Heat Wave coming up next week.  Shall we believe it?  Let's hope its right bc this would be a wonderful way to finish off Met Summer.

Week 2...seasonal for the southern Sub and WET???

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 5.55.55 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 5.59.55 AM.png

 

 

Here is where the model has not backed off and shows the PAC NW Ridge firing up and signal for a trough over the Apps.  

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The Result is a weter/cooler pattern to finish off August...meanwhile, the PAC NW/SW Canada Torches...

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 6.03.51 AM.png

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On a completely side note, lets look at the Southern Hemisphere and how chilly Australia and South America will be the next 28 days!  Winter is certainly hitting the hard this year.

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 6.07.04 AM.png

 

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Tom,  That’s looking and sounding so good!!   

If we can see temps moderate and some rain, perhaps life will turn around in Tx/Okla.  It’s been brutal.  
The heat is affecting everything.  
High today 102

Tomorrow 100. That’s the right direction.  Hoping the shortening days will benefit us soon as the sun slips south.  Come on Fall!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 81/61 there was no rain fall but it was a rather cloudy day with just 27% of possible sunshine. The overnight low both here in MBY and at GRR was 67. There was indeed a brief shower here and I did record 0.02" of rain fall. For today the record high of 100 was recorded in 1916 and the record low of 46 was recorded in 1978.

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Yet another night where we struggled to drop below 80°F. Diurnal cycle can be nonexistent at this time of year.

Muggy/gross again this AM, 85/75 as of 10AM. Probably will get to around 90 before convection gets going.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yet another night where we struggled to drop below 80°F. Diurnal cycle can be nonexistent at this time of year.

Muggy/gross again this AM, 85/75 as of 10AM. Probably will get to around 90 before convection gets going.

I was in the upper 70's at 10pm. It's clear DC gets warmer nights than my place. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Bottomed out at a respectably chilly 52 degrees here last night. Currently 69 under blazing blue sunny skies. Should be a near-perfect summer weather day with highs topping out in the upper 70s with low humidity. I could get used to this! Too bad we are heading back up to the hundred mark next week. 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Has to be one of our wettest July’s ever. BC33662F-B005-4A4A-866D-36FE139154D3.thumb.png.679d4a77dfce9d3f84aabe66bbf26fc8.png

Wow, that's amazing what the difference is a couple hours west! None of the storm chances for Lincoln have materialized. Less than 0.50" has fallen since July 7th with nothing in sight. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Wow, that's amazing what the difference is a couple hours west! None of the storm chances for Lincoln have materialized. Less than 0.50" has fallen since July 7th with nothing in sight. 

This is just very sad. I knew it had gotten dry in parts of Eastern Nebraska, but wow that’s low. We have been so lucky with these storms moving northwest to southeast. Everything is just lush green. This is not common around here in a usual late July. 

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Picked up 1.05" of rain overnight and early this morning to bring my storm total over the past few days to 3.98". The rain and decently cooler temps have certainly been welcome.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Wow, that's amazing what the difference is a couple hours west! None of the storm chances for Lincoln have materialized. Less than 0.50" has fallen since July 7th with nothing in sight. 

I’m at 3.13” for the month but only .51” since the 7th.

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3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Bottomed out at a respectably chilly 52 degrees here last night. Currently 69 under blazing blue sunny skies. Should be a near-perfect summer weather day with highs topping out in the upper 70s with low humidity. I could get used to this! Too bad we are heading back up to the hundred mark next week. 

I'd trade spots for the lows, but not sure about those 100's for you. 😇

Better storms there though!

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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That jet stream just didn’t get the memo!  Dip!  Dip!!   So looks like this heat will spread not retreat.  

So opinions as to WHY the jet is so far north?  And for so long?  

Clearly, we’re all going to bake.

102/3 today  

5:30pm.  Update.   107* !! 🔥🔥

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Temps only reached the mid 70’s today with cloudy skies and a manageable dew in the low 60’s. July has turned out to be a glorious month for precipitation around here and mostly comfortable  temperatures. I am mowing the yard twice a week. Unheard of for this time of year. 

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It's a gorgeous morning with the birds singing and temps near 60F and very comfy DP's.  Many of us are waking up to some wonderful temps this morning and it will continue through this weekend.  

image.png

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Boom!  Did the Euro Weeklies just cave to the JMA weeklies???  It appears so my friends...the worst of the Summer Heat could be knocking on the door step for our southern members!  The retrograding Ridge will be the key player here as we roll through the last month of Met Summer.  The LR signals I'm seeing post Week 2 indicate a W NAMER/AK Ridge to fire up so we'll see how we end up closing out Aug and opening up Sept.  Labor Day weekend could be down right chilly for those up north, esp @Madtownand the Northwoods peeps.  Given the Summer pattern up that way, I wouldn't doubt for it to continue.  It hasn't been really warm up there...maybe for a few times this season temps spike into the 90's but that's about it irc.

 

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The Monsoon is loaded...Fill up Lake Powell Mother Nature!  Do what you can do Best...Drought Busting year in the works?  Can you imagine if nature just flipped the script and reversed the Drought by next Spring?  In my opinion, something is brewing and I'm looking forward to an impressive STJ next Autumn through Winter.

 

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0z EPS...continuing to cool Texas and the southern U.S...

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Yesterday was yet another very nice summer day with the official H/L at Grand Rapids of 79/63. There was a trace of rain fall yesterday morning. But there also was 65% of possible sunshine.  So far this morning the official overnight low at GRR has been 61 but here in MBY the low was a cooler 57. And with clear skies it is now 58 here. For today the record high of 103 was set in 1916 and the record low of 47 was set in 1971. Today and into the weekend it looks to be mostly dry and once again very nice late July weather. There looks to be a warm up later next week but we shall see how that plays out.

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

It's a gorgeous morning with the birds singing and temps near 60F and very comfy DP's.  Many of us are waking up to some wonderful temps this morning and it will continue through this weekend.  

image.png

It is a gorgeous morning, currently 63 with a DP of 60.  I finishes the week with 2 inches of rain which has everything nice and green again.  Can't draw up a better weekend around here than what I'll have this weekend. 

image.png.59daa25d66c3945f2cd65d9f741f5736.png

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So good to see rain in Oklahoma.   
Every morning I remind myself that the day is shorter by 1 minute. Fall is coming. 

Heat is still on and in Tx/Okla we are all weary and sick of it. But we soldier on because we love it down here.  

We could use a TD or TS but that likely isn’t in the cards this year.  We will have to wait for the northern realms to send use a stronger front. 
The next 5 days a bit more reasonable at 100-102.  

I stll don’t think this will truly break till mid/late September.  I’ve seen 100’s in October so I won’t get worked up on the cool temps yet.  

A warm 83* morning.  But then what’s new?! 😎

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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DVN has 105º in the forecast for Cedar Rapids next Wednesday.  I'm not sure why they would even put that in because there is very little chance it'll verify.  It hasn't been that hot since the 1930s dust bowl.  Cedar Rapids hasn't even hit 100º since 2012.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

DVN has 105º in the forecast for Cedar Rapids next Wednesday.  I'm not sure why they would even put that in because there is very little chance it'll verify.  It hasn't been that hot since the 1930s dust bowl.  Cedar Rapids hasn't even hit 100º since 2012.

I've noticed that OAX follows closely with the national model blend (which is still usually a few degrees too warm during the summer). The NMB only has up to 99 for Cedar Rapids and even the GFS is only getting up to around 110, so yeah not sure where that 105 is coming from 😂

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Time to throw in the towel and turn off the sprinklers and let the yard burn up completely I guess... Mother Nature, you win again in 2022.

Another brutally hot and dry stretch upcoming for a lot of us... it would have been nice if my backyard could have gotten more than 0.20" of rain over the past 3 weeks before the "August death ridge" arrives. Winter can't get here soon enough. 

 

Screenshot 2022-07-29 121748.png

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Hmm... the latest Euro has lowered our big heatwave to only two days above 90º.... 94º Wednesday (NWS has 105º and locals all have 100º) and 91º Friday.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Hmm... the latest Euro has lowered our big heatwave to only two days above 90º.... 94º Wednesday (NWS has 105º and locals all have 100º) and 91º Friday.

Sounds about like how the last heat wave turned out. 

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26 minutes ago, BMT said:

Sounds about like how the last heat wave turned out. 

Fingers crossed, I won't be disappointed at all if we can't crack 100 again next week. With how dry it's been lately in the region, it won't be hard for the heat to crank up during the day though. 

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

@Iceresistance @OKwx2k4Did you guys get hit good last night??  The radar loop from yesterday showed severe storms that erupted near OKC and then moved East.

Screen Shot 2022-07-29 at 4.59.23 AM.png

 

I only had a trace of rain, I did have a lightning jump scare from that storm. (Landed around .5 mile to the SE)There was also a confirmed tornado near Broken Arrow. 

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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104* today.  

Feels like 109*.  Getting real dam* sick of this. Frankly, not feeling great today. Heat and steady pressure beats me up.  

Many are not feeling well   It’s like the flu but not the flu   Hits us sometimes with long hot spells.

I have had a mild migraine for about 3 weeks.  First good rain we get, I’m going to go out & dance in it! 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Rain going NE, however at least the atmosphere can manage it.  
101* now.  Partly cloudy. 
 

light rain.  Temp dropped to 73! at 7:30 pm
Rain moving into Western Okla.  They’ll be seriously happy!

 

61F2D79F-0B45-46B6-87CB-A0060470CD16.jpeg
 

Edit:  Rain 😆….well,  light rain. 
At least it will wash the dust and pollen off of things. Maybe my 3 week old headache will vanish?
 

50B71B3F-8FCE-4099-B9C9-94304A597091.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Another swampy day. Not hot, but oppressive.

Had 80°F (and 80°F dewpoint) with fog midday, then a brief downpour in the late afternoon. A bit more comfortable outside now.

All the windows in the house were fogged up today, and have been for the last several days, thanks to the high humidity. Nastiest time of year here..never fails.

604CBD0C-7097-4456-995B-79CF1C8DD2FA.jpeg

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9 hours ago, Phil said:

Another swampy day. Not hot, but oppressive.

Had 80°F (and 80°F dewpoint) with fog midday, then a brief downpour in the late afternoon. A bit more comfortable outside now.

All the windows in the house were fogged up today, and have been for the last several days, thanks to the high humidity. Nastiest time of year here..never fails.

604CBD0C-7097-4456-995B-79CF1C8DD2FA.jpeg

Woah, that's really incredible...I didn't know the DP's were that bad in parts of the D.C. area.  That's just down right nasty.  No wonder folks like yourself can't wait till the first signs of Autumn after a long summer!  It appears its coming sooner than later this year.  Hang in there!

 

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9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Wonderful evening with a temp of 71.  It's not often in late July that it's to cool to get in the pool so we decided to go with a wiennie roast and movie night outside.  A little Octoberish this weekend.

 

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That shot right there is the epitome of the Nations "heartland"...gorgeous sunset and beautiful back drop of the rolling landscape!

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With 92% of possible sunshine the official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 78/60 there was no rain fall. So far the overnight low both here in MBY and at GRR is 58 and with clear skies that is the current temperature. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 101 was in 1916 and the record low of 50 was in 1956, 1965 and 2013. The weather looks to continue to be mostly clear and dry with just a slight chance of a few showers for the next week or so. All in all great late July early August weather.

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Having members here from Canada to Texas makes for an interesting summer.  
I wonder what’s ahead?

87 at 10 am.  
Headed for 98
40% chance of rain but it’s north and moving NE.  We’ll enjoy while we can.  

Tomorrow  100* 

August and September still ahead.  
If we’re lucky we’ll get a few more breaks like this.   

Anyone care to weigh in on that?  

Phil?
 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Finally a comfortable day!

Mid-80s with mid-60s dewpoints and full sunshine. Hasn’t felt this nice in a month at least?

Too bad I fly to Sarasota FL tomorrow AM, looks like another splendid day here. 

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