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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I just hit the 3 inch mark with more rain still to come.  I'll have to do some checking but this is the largest 24 hour rainfall I've had in at least 2 years.  These are the rainfall totals as of 9:52 this morning, the 5.9 is right over my father in laws farm.  Needless to say his corn and beans are no longer thirsty.  What's surprising about this is that there arn't any river flood warning issued yet.

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How about sharing? 😎

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 minutes ago, Andie said:

How about sharing? 😎

I'll try!  I believe the front next weekend might be strong enough to produce some rain for ya.  The ridge should get shoved west.

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3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Finally caught a close one on video. The flash was a lot brighter than how it was captured (kinda behind where I aimed this). 

 

I love that popping sound from a close strike.

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We have been missed so many times since last October with large precipitation amounts, that you take all forecasts with some skepticism. The Drought has continued on with slight worsening recently. It is hard to chip away at a drought around here in July, August, and September. Hope this forecast verifies for rainfall. 

 

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Waiting for convection to develop here. So far I’m not impressed.

Not much of a CU field over the upstream terrain and it’s almost 4pm. Either something is gonna break the cap east of the terrain and go crazy, or we’re getting nada.

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33 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Latest drought monitor. Not good. 

Technically not in drought anymore in this corner state, but hate to see the majority still in D1-D3. And it hasn't been exactly wet around here lately either, just a few brief showers since June 17th. OAX now saying 101 Tuesday, though they've been aggressive at times with heat this year they might be right with this one. Rough start to summer back at my parents in the Memphis area is well, only 0.88" fell in June (10th driest on record). 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

I'll try!  I believe the front next weekend might be strong enough to produce some rain for ya.  The ridge should get shoved west.

That’s encouraging.  We have some rain off to the SE but that’s going east.  
The tropics are really revving their engines and the Texas coast will see rain.  It’s a matter of time before the Gulf cooks up one of its hurricanes. The water is warm and there have been a number of systems off of Africa trying to spin up. 
It’s just now getting interesting. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Noctilucent clouds will be visible in Northern US.   
Keep your eyes peeled.  
It is said they will be the brightest in the last 15 yrs. 
 

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2022/jul/01/rare-clouds-that-glow-in-the-dark-are-the-most-vib/

 

1BFA7D3B-706B-453A-8256-EDBFFAABF7D6.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Waiting for convection to develop here. So far I’m not impressed.

Not much of a CU field over the upstream terrain and it’s almost 4pm. Either something is gonna break the cap east of the terrain and go crazy, or we’re getting nada.

Looked pretty bad west of Frederick?  Spots  of 3 to 4 inches?

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29 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Looked pretty bad west of Frederick?  Spots  of 3 to 4 inches?

Barely a drop of rain here. Good stuff missed north again.

Plenty of dry lightning though. A couple bolts hit within a few hundred yards or so.

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It was a nasty day. 90°F with a dewpoint of 78°F.

Thunderstorm outflow saved the day, though. Knocked dewpoints down by roughly 10°F. Much less oppressive now.

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We’re at 89*
72 dew pt

We hit 100’s tomorrow for 10 days. 
if the power generator fails like they did in winter, a lot of people will die. 
Cross your fingers we make it to Fall ok 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Wow, now up to 4.18” of rain since sunset! Radar estimates much higher, closer to 5”.

Fireplace outcove is flooding, and now there’s water in the basement as the sump pump seems to the croaking.

WTF happened. There was nothing on radar then a stray cumulus moved over the Potomac River and exploded upwards. Since then it’s been a relentless torrent.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Wow, now up to 4.18” of rain since sunset! Radar estimates much higher, closer to 5”.

Fireplace outcove is flooding, and now there’s water in the basement as the sump pump seems to the croaking.

WTF happened. There was nothing on radar then a stray cumulus moved over the Potomac River and exploded upwards. Since then it’s been a relentless torrent.

Some major close lighting strikes as well with some of the storms

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Wow, now up to 4.18” of rain since sunset! Radar estimates much higher, closer to 5”.

Fireplace outcove is flooding, and now there’s water in the basement as the sump pump seems to the croaking.

WTF happened. There was nothing on radar then a stray cumulus moved over the Potomac River and exploded upwards. Since then it’s been a relentless torrent.

When it rains, its pours!  Glad to hear the Heavens have opened up for you...but it appears it may have been too much of a good thing?  I noticed the radar was lighting up last night around dinner time and I was thinking to myself "I hope Phil gets some action."

Edit: Did you get any flood damage?

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The spotty nature of Summer-Time storms is pretty evident on the map below...both KS and IL have done quite well...

image.png

 

The attention now turns for us up north as the quintessential "Ring of Fire" pattern fires up right around the peak season for Derecho season...

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I'm starting to see a big signal for a nocturnal jet to fire up later Mon pm into Tues am....then again Wed-Thu...

0z FV3 starting to "see" it and the RGEM...

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Once we get past next weekend, all the globals are starting to recognize the amplified North American 500mb pattern and laying out a major eastern CONUS trough.  Relief will be on the way but does it penetrate deep down into Texas?  Gosh, it's like they have this imaginary dome.

image.gif

 

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On a side note, wrt to the storm action locally, Izzi touched on the idea I had earlier that storms tend to fire up farther south than modeled...

Quote
Tuesday afternoon and beyond, there does look to be potentially
several more convectively enhanced vort traversing the general
region. Timing and placement details of these features will have
huge impacts on precip chances and amounts as well as temperatures
as MCS activity will undoubtedly play a big role in the location
of the effective boundary. Near and south of the boundary, air
mass will be very humid and hot, with heat indices over 100F a
good bet. That boundary could easily lift north into or even north
of our CWA at times, bringing heat and humidity to the region.
Typically, the effective boundary ends up being farther south than
model guidance suggests in active ring of fire regimes as
convective cold pools shove the effective boundary southward.

 

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07/03/2022

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 84/56 there was no rain fall and there was 83% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY the overnight low was 59 and that is the current temperature with clear skies. The low so far at GRR was 60. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 97 happened in 1921,1949, and 1966 the record low of 43 was in 1968. The next few days look to continue to have very typical summer like conditions with warm days and mild nights. The only change is that there looks to be a better chance of some much-needed rain on Monday night. Not sure of the timing of the rain but there is a chance that some fireworks events could be impacted.

Also of note is that at 3:10 AM tomorrow morning the Earth will be at Aphelion. At aphelion the Earth is the farthest from the sun. This year the distance is 94,509,598 miles. Come January 4th 2023 the Earth will be the closest to the sun at 91,403,039 miles.

 

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I'm so thankful for the rain I received Saturday morning I ended up with 3.1 inches.  With the upcoming forecast being ridiculously hot we would have been in big trouble without it.  Some areas just to my NE missed out and they are very dry and will likely move into the D2 category in the next drought monitor.  Looks like some serious sweat weather ahead.

@NWSKansasCity

 
The good news is that it looks dry for most folks today. A few storms can't be ruled out south of I-70. The bad news is that it gets hot and humid this week. We're talking mid and upper 90 degree highs with heat index values in the 100-110 range through much of the work week.
 
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5 hours ago, Tom said:

When it rains, its pours!  Glad to hear the Heavens have opened up for you...but it appears it may have been too much of a good thing?  I noticed the radar was lighting up last night around dinner time and I was thinking to myself "I hope Phil gets some action."

Edit: Did you get any flood damage?

Yeah we had a leak in the family room firewood outcove and water in the basement. No bueno. Luckily this particular location doesn’t flood (we’ve had more rain than this before, haha).

Nearby areas flooded badly though. Local creeks rose something like 7-10ft in 45 mins, some roads were washed out a few miles upcounty.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Once we get past next weekend, all the globals are starting to recognize the amplified North American 500mb pattern and laying out a major eastern CONUS trough.  Relief will be on the way but does it penetrate deep down into Texas?  Gosh, it's like they have this imaginary dome.

image.gif

 

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It ain’t imaginary Tom!   
This heat dome is real and has attitude.  Everything is just surviving.   
The Texas border is a death trap and the flood doesn’t stop.  
Will no one do something!?  Affects us all. 
A week of this ahead.  Deadly humid heat.  It’s at the right time but it hurts just the same.  
 

86* at 9:30      Dew at 72. 
High of 100* today

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Temps started off in the 50s this morning, but humidity and heat will be on the rise later today and especially tomorrow.

 

Nice refreshing cool down next weekend w/ highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

 

 

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Wow there was a crapload of large debris on the way to the grocery store this AM. Big stuff like full sized logs and dumpsters+boulders from a construction site. Haven’t seen anything like this since that huge morning rainstorm and flash flood in 2019.

Looks like 5-7” fell in just a few hours. That’s a lot of water.

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3 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I planted this corn  may 9th. My first time ever planting  corn since i was on my gramps farm in Maryland  in the 1980s. Its about 2 acres for the deer and animals, some sweet corn  as well. Im amazed  at iowa soil. That corn had only .26 rain for 26 days! 

Resized_20220701_191444(1).jpeg

Must be the GMO’s!

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Boy, the Euro has come back south and become very wet.

It's very difficult to predict, though.  Each day's storms will affect where the next day's storms will form.  The Euro, more than other models, tends to want to sag lines of storms south into the warm air.  If any one of its predicted lines fails to develop and drop south through Iowa, Iowa could end up hot and capped while the storms pop up in MN/WI.

image.thumb.png.51f47cbd5b6f6d9f51aee3cfd92693d6.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Cloudy.  
The rain is all north of DFW area …..

and it’s headed north. 
 

☹️ …..Bummer.  
 

Edit

2 hrs later.   100*. 
Rain STILL north. 😠

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Folks before ya'll know it, we will be heading into Meteorological Autumn. Just think, that once we are finish w/ July, then, August will be just a countdown. Crazy how time flies. Also, looking forward next month to some of our first "Winter Outlooks."

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Must be the GMO’s!

Its funny you should say that!!! Its actually  non gmo corn!   I dont know if it is true organic  but a farmer friend said it was leftover from a  farm that he couldn't  use roundup on.   I applies urea to eat twice right before a rain and looks awesome!

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It was a warm muggy day today but an outflow boundary just pushed in from the south and dropped temps a few degrees.  A complex of storms in Eastern Kansas is slowly moving this way but may fizzle out after the sun goes down.

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Today is our last 50s-dewpoint day for a while.  It should be in the 70s for the rest of the week.  I hope some good rain will come with it.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looked like quite the storms rolling through eastern Montana this evening.

87/67 today here. Wunderground shows 5 days in a row of t'storms starting 7/5. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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21 hours ago, Phil said:

Wow, now up to 4.18” of rain since sunset! Radar estimates much higher, closer to 5”.

Fireplace outcove is flooding, and now there’s water in the basement as the sump pump seems to the croaking.

WTF happened. There was nothing on radar then a stray cumulus moved over the Potomac River and exploded upwards. Since then it’s been a relentless torrent.

So your place is like, several of Kentucky's storms happen in one storm in Maryland. 😇

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Happy 4th of July! We have now reached aphelion and will now start moving closer to the sun. Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 88/59 there was once again no rain fall. There was 95% of possible sunshine. The overnight low in MBY was 65 at the current time it is clear and 67. For today the average H/L remains at 83/62 the record high of 100 was set in 1897 and 1911. A high of 99 was recorded in 2012. The low for the date is 45 in 1972 the coolest maximum for any July 4th is 64 in 1970 there have been 5 times when the high failed to reach 70 the last time was in 1997. The warmest minimum was a warm 79 in 2012.

 

 

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8 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Much needed rainfall is a gift from heaven in the ongoing drought. Church service prayed for rain this morning. Awesome. 

 

Answered prayer!!   
Throw one our way!  We are very much in need.  
We will see 100* with no problem over the next week.  
I noticed yesterday even the young lizards are coming to the back door for water. Put out a large bowl just for them.  Crazy dry!!

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Happy 4th of July!  The weather was perfection for outdoor activities yesterday.  The lake breeze blew just enough inland to drop temps into low 80’s and ideal conditions for fireworks.  We had a Blast, literally, lighting up the night skies! 
 

The video below is a taste of what we had last night…not to mention, all the wonderful food we ate!  ‘MERICA 🇺🇸   

 

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17 hours ago, Andie said:

Cloudy.  
The rain is all north of DFW area …..

and it’s headed north. 
 

☹️ …..Bummer.  
 

Edit

2 hrs later.   100*. 
Rain STILL north. 😠

To make matters worse the rain fizzled out before it got to me, But at least increased cloud cover for fireworks last night, it was epic. KFOR has relief next week, but before that I am having highs up to 104°F. :(

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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12 minutes ago, Tom said:

Happy 4th of July!  The weather was perfection for outdoor activities yesterday.  The lake breeze blew just enough inland to drop temps into low 80’s and ideal conditions for fireworks.  We had a Blast, literally, lighting up the night skies! 
 

The video below is a taste of what we had last night…not to mention, all the wonderful food we ate!  ‘MERICA   IMG_1912.MOV 23.42 MB · 1 download  

 

Nature may deliver fireworks to you the next 3 nights.  Illinois and Iowa look ripe for a derecho.

day1otlk_1300.gif

day2otlk_0600.gif

day3otlk_0730.gif

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nature may deliver fireworks to you the next 3 nights.  Illinois and Iowa look ripe for a derecho.

day1otlk_1300.gif

day2otlk_0600.gif

day3otlk_0730.gif

Certainly looks like a fun pattern setting up...I was up north at my brother's place and the open fields look a bit parched.  Lot's of beneficial rains are cometh!  Hope you have a wonderful day today bud.  Keep it cool!  👊

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9 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Much needed rainfall is a gift from heaven in the ongoing drought. Church service prayed for rain this morning. Awesome. 

IMG_0625.MOV 20.51 MB · 2 downloads  

 

It's like nature wants to fill in the holes to those who have been missed over the last 7 days...the radar loop from last night into this morning is basically providing rains from I-80 on north...

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