July 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Timmy Supercell]

Today was most likely the coolest day in July, 74/67!

Good run on precip, pretty sure July is already up to average, with 22 more days left. But remind mother nature that does not mean I don't want it to storm anymore..

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Today was most likely the coolest day in July, 74/67!

Good run on precip, pretty sure July is already up to average, with 22 more days left. But remind mother nature that does not mean I don't want it to storm anymore..

I’ve had 8” of rain already this month. Trees are happy.

[Phil]

@TT-SEA Ur trip to MN be lookin’ toasty.

Need to start looking for real estate in Greenland.

[hawkstwelve]

I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit...

I experienced 114 degree heat last year with the historic heatwave in the PNW. I do not care to experience it again. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I’ve had 8” of rain already this month. Trees are happy.

I talked to my uncle in Mt airy Md yesterday  and hes had less than .90 this month. He eeked out .65 yesterday, his crops are suffering  how far in that from you @Phil?

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I talked to my uncle in Mt airy Md yesterday  and hes had less than .90 this month. He eeked out .65 yesterday, his crops are suffering  how far in that from you @Phil?

That’s about 40 miles north of here. Love that area. A much cooler climate than here, with more snowfall and more wind. When it’s 90°F here it’s often ~ 85°F up there.

In the summer we get the lee-trough induced afternoon wind switch to S/SE most days, which draws in the bay/river breeze front and pumps humidity right in here.

Where-as Mt. Airy usually keeps the westerly winds and is better mixed w/ lower humidity.

[Tom]

7 hours ago, Niko said:

Having this splendid weather almost at mid July is amazing. Right now, dew is at 44F w a temp of 68F and not a cloud to be found. Just phenomenal.

What a gift from nature, right?  Just amazing wx to be had in the middle of Summer.  Had a high of 76F and deep blue skies along with a nice stiff NE wind off the lake.  Great bon fire weather.  The way I see it for the rest of summer is our region will escape much of the prolong heat waves that will form.  I'm sure we'll see more 90's but transient wx and a return to a more active stretch the following week as a NW Flow pattern arrives...the return of the "Ring of Fire".  

In terms of the Monsoon, it will fire right back up later this week as tropical moisture gets infused into the pattern.  Both GEFS/EPS showing the mean ridge to meander right over the S Plains which allows the southerly flow to return on the backside of this long term long wave feature.  

What about our Sub???  IMHO, those of us N of say, the I-80 corridor and points east into the GL's will be experiencing a NW Flow aloft allowing for several fronts to pass through starting later next weekend into the following week.  I see a more active pattern developing.  Models will eventually pick up on this as we get closer in time.

 

 

 

 

The big clue why I see the NW Flow returning Week 3 & 4 of the month is a flip back towards a -EPO and +PNA.  Surprisingly, all the models are in agreement.

 

 

[Tom]

It's a cool and comfy morning and the windows have been open all night allowing the fresh air spill inside....58F/56F...I love that smell of the fresh summer air!  Happy Sunday.

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit...

I experienced 114 degree heat last year with the historic heatwave in the PNW. I do not care to experience it again. 

The Euro seems more realistic with temp though it's still hot also.  It does look like we will see triple digit heat which sucks.  

[Andie]

Good Sunday Morning!

Another sunny day in Texas. 
Heading for 103.  I’ve lost track of how many days we’ve had over 100*.  It’s just a blur of heat rays off the ground.  

Heat index around 112*

2 More Weeks of 100-104 forecasted for No Texas  

Yup!

First rain I get I’m going to go dance in it!!  

[westMJim]

Yesterday was another great summer day with an official H/L of 80/55. There was once again no rain fall and 99% of possible sunshine. While the sunshine has been great it continues to be rather dry. For today the average H/L has reached the highest for the 30 year average with an average H/L of 83/63 and it will stay at that 83/63 until July 31^st for the new 15 year average the average is now at 84/64 and that will stay the same until July 27^th so this is on average the warmest days of the year at Grand Rapids. The overnight low in MBY was 52 and at the current time with clear skies it is 60. While there is a chance of some showers on Monday night there also may not be any. The rest of the week looks very dry and as is the case with dry conditions there can be some very warm to hot days with highs in the 80’s and lows ranging from the upper 50’s to the upper 60’s

 

[westMJim]

Not only has it been rather dry there continues to be a thunderstorm drought. At Grand Rapids there were only 4 thunderstorms in June (remember the term thunderstorm for this purpose can mean only one detected lightning flash in the area) and there has only been one reported "thunderstorm" so far in July at Grand Rapids. That one did indeed have some moderate lightning with it.

[Iceresistance]

Had a cold front earlier this week, the high today expected to be 96°F.

 

There was really big storms over Central Oklahoma that day. A microburst over Oklahoma City, and parts of the city got up to 3.5 inches of rain

Me? I got absolutely nothing.

[CentralNebWeather]

As of 1:30 pm, 98 degrees with a heat index of 108 and a 70 dew. On our way to 104 with heat index possibly 110 or higher. Absolutely disgusting outside. My wife was going to take a walk, went outside and said not today. Days like this is, are why I love fall and winter. I can’t imagine living in this for a lot of the year as many in the south experience. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[CentralNebWeather]

My goodness. 

[Andie]

103*
 

Again

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Currently 91 with a DP of 77. Topped out at 98 with a heat index of an eye-wattering 119 degrees. Not a fan.

As CentralNeb said, you can't do anything in this weather. It's one of those days where you quickly walk from the AC house to the AC car to the AC store and back. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Probably topped out here at 103 with 112 the highest heat index. Some places to my south and west had temps of 105-112. Storms to my west, but NWS Hastings not optimistic that much will make it to Central Nebraska. 

[Timmy Supercell]

18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Currently 91 with a DP of 77. Topped out at 98 with a heat index of an eye-wattering 119 degrees. Not a fan.

As CentralNeb said, you can't do anything in this weather. It's one of those days where you quickly walk from the AC house to the AC car to the AC store and back. 

[snowstorm83]

4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

As of 1:30 pm, 98 degrees with a heat index of 108 and a 70 dew. On our way to 104 with heat index possibly 110 or higher. Absolutely disgusting outside. My wife was going to take a walk, went outside and said not today. Days like this is, are why I love fall and winter. I can’t imagine living in this for a lot of the year as many in the south experience. 

Nebraska summers are definitely hot and humid, but the south is on a completely different level. 93/74 is no fun here, but that's just a regular summer day in Memphis. And when it's in the upper 90s/triple digits there, dews will usually be above 75. 

[snowstorm83]

McCook hit 111 today. It seems like that southwestern area of the state always gets crazy high temps. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, snowstorm83 said:

McCook hit 111 today. It seems like that southwestern area of the state always gets crazy high temps. 

Much lower dews out there usually. Landscape is much hillier (canyons)with not the best of soils, so very little corn or soybeans grown in that area. 

[Iceresistance]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

103*
 

Again

 

 

I really hate to say this, but the models are being worryingly consistent for EXTREME temperatures by the end of July, it could reach up to 110*F in Northern Texas by that time.
 

College Station, TX reached 111*F today. 

[Thunder98]

The high was an insane 111F in College Station and Huntsville TX!

[Thunder98]

5 hours ago, Andie said:

103*
 

Again

 

 

You should probably plan a trip to the U.P of Michigan for a few weeks to escape the insane heat.

[CentralNebWeather]

Still 91 degrees at 10:45 pm. Very unusual around here. Though the dew has dropped to 53. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

But wait. I thought the governor said this was all solved after the last winter mass casualty event.

[jcwxguy]

surprise severe thunderstorm warning here. Storms are starting to weaken though. nice gust front should move through in about 15 minutes or so

 

Quote

NEC021-023-037-039-053-141-155-167-177-110730-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0234.000000T0000Z-220711T0730Z/
Burt NE-Cuming NE-Colfax NE-Platte NE-Washington NE-Dodge NE-
Butler NE-Saunders NE-Stanton NE-
158 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN BURT...SOUTHERN CUMING...COLFAX...EAST CENTRAL PLATTE...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...DODGE...NORTHEASTERN BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN
SAUNDERS AND SOUTHEASTERN STANTON COUNTIES...

At 158 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles south of Wisner to 5 miles south of Snyder to
near Octavia, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.
 

 

[jcwxguy]

3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

surprise severe thunderstorm warning here. Storms are starting to weaken though. nice gust front should move through in about 15 minutes or so

 

 

Quote

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
213 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Pottawattamie County in southwestern Iowa...
  Western Harrison County in southwestern Iowa...
  Northwestern Sarpy County in east central Nebraska...
  Southern Burt County in east central Nebraska...
  Southeastern Cuming County in northeastern Nebraska...
  Washington County in east central Nebraska...
  Central Dodge County in east central Nebraska...
  Douglas County in east central Nebraska...
  Northern Saunders County in east central Nebraska...

* Until 300 AM CDT.

* At 212 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles west of Oakland to 2 miles northwest of
  Nickerson to 4 miles northwest of Colon, moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

omaha in the action also 

[Tom]

I'm really digging the latest model trends for the this coming Fri-Sun over the Upper MW/GL's as the models suddenly are picking up on the NW flow around the periphery of the Heat Dome across the C/S Plains.  0z EPS showing a short wave diving down south out of the prairies of S Canada into the Upper MW on Fri.  Interestingly, this is happening right when the +PNA pops, usually suggesting an amplified flow for the CONUS.  You can see the trends off the GEFS over the past 6 runs driving the NW Flow pattern into the MW/GL's instead of the "flatter" pattern it was suggesting a couple days ago.

 

 

The result is a chance for precip this coming weekend and more seasonal temps instead of the Heat pushing east....another note is the signal for a stalled frontal boundary right over the ag belt KS/NE/MO/IA during the Sun/Mon period.

 

 

0z EPS cooling the 16th-21st period near the eastern Sub...not as blow torch as in recent runs...prob seeing the wetter pattern??

Current run...

 

24 hours ago...

 

 

[Tom]

Nice double rainbow last evening when a brief shower traversed the N burbs and the city right around sunset.  #nature

[Tom]

Northside of DSM getting rocked and if it holds together it could give @james1976some thunder...

[Clinton]

I'm going to start the week off hot with highs in the upper 90s today.  A front tonight will drop temps into the mid 80s tomorrow, the rest of the week looks dry with temps in the low to mid 90s.

[Hawkeye]

I woke up to a line of severe storms on my doorstep, but the line faded quickly as it moved into Cedar Rapids.  The airport, south of the city, got heavier stuff.  It's pretty tame here.

The same area, from the CR airport down to Iowa City, has been hit hard repeatedly since late June.  It's even backbuilding down there again.  I wish the luck could be spread out a bit.

[bud2380]

A severe thunderstorm warning was issued here. Heavy rain and gusty winds rolled through. Its still coming down.  I forgot to empty my gauge, so I won’t be able to accurately tell how much though. Nice surprise this morning though. Especially considering the forecast is mostly hot and dry this week. 

[bud2380]

13 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Currently 91 with a DP of 77. Topped out at 98 with a heat index of an eye-wattering 119 degrees. Not a fan.

As CentralNeb said, you can't do anything in this weather. It's one of those days where you quickly walk from the AC house to the AC car to the AC store and back. 

The NWS for Sioux Falls showed a max heat index value of 104° yesterday. Just curious where you saw a reading of 119° as obviously that is a huge disparity. 
 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFSD.html

[james1976]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Northside of DSM getting rocked and if it holds together it could give @james1976some thunder...

Im in MN but the radar looks pretty good down there. It's been dry up here. A lot of brown lawns around the TC. Had some thunder yesterday but only dropped 0.03". 

[hawkstwelve]

53 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The NWS for Sioux Falls showed a max heat index value of 104° yesterday. Just curious where you saw a reading of 119° as obviously that is a huge disparity. 
 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFSD.html

The 119 was off my personal weather station HI calculations so I would assume FSD to be a bit more accurate. Either way, it was hotter than Hades. 

[Andie]

Can’t escape the “hound of hell” heat.
Husband must work through this. As a major city fleet manager, he keeps city emergency services able and ready in this state of emergency.  
My neighbors are escaping to New Mexico mountains.  But they haven’t heard the late July blowtorch news yet.  They may regret leaving quite so soon. They return to the real rough stuff.  
 

I’ve lived through 111* before.  
It’s really tough.  That’s Needles, Calif heat.  As long as the A/C holds out I can do this. 

[Andie]

9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

But wait. I thought the governor said this was all solved after the last winter mass casualty event.

Texas has said the same that we’re ok.  
If we lose power people will die by the boatload.  They know it.  
We’re all praying.  
 

[Hawkeye]

I only received 0.23" from this morning's fading storms.

[westMJim]

Had a garden variety  thunderstorm came thru here not a whole lot of rain with it as just 0.11" of rain has fallen so far. At the current time with light rain still falling it is 73 here in MBY.

[westMJim]

The rain has now ended here and just 0.11" of total rain fall with today thundershower.

[westMJim]

My wife just called and said that in the East Paris and Cascade area (SE Grand Rapids) the roads were flooded. She is now on Plainfield (The NE side of GR) and it is not raining as hard there. I told her the rain is now done here at the house.

[Clinton]

Hot is the word today, currently 98 with a Heat Index of 106.  Very small chance of thunderstorms tonight behind a nice cold front that will drop temps into the mid 80s tomorrow.

[Andie]

Currently 103*.  Feels like 106*. 
Just put a large glass of ice in the birds water.  Too much for these guys to take.   I see so few birds.  Saw a hawk this morning hauling it 1/4 mi toward the lake.  Should have followed him! 
More mañana!

[Andie]

They’re calling for 103 tomorrow.  That means it will be at least 105 with a higher index.   
I mean, who did we all piss off?  This is just crazy.  And a long way to go.  
Im concerned on several levels.  Usually we may get 2 weeks max of this insanity.  
 

Edit:       Our wind has finally moved off of 0.   We had 10 mph winds which increased our wind power generation.  Power Auth was warning us of failures as the wind generators were flat.  

Citizens raised their thermostats and conserved. We dodged the bullet.   If this continues they may restrict industrial usage.  
Its getting rough.  But this heat could kill so we’d best cooperate.  

[james1976]

Up at the MN residence. Cold front blew through a while ago. Quick shower only dropped 0.02". Now it's a nice NW breeze and temp has dropped to 72. Bit of fall vibes!

[james1976]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Hot is the word today, currently 98 with a Heat Index of 106.  Very small chance of thunderstorms tonight behind a nice cold front that will drop temps into the mid 80s tomorrow.

Yup prolly the front that just blew through here. It's a nice one!