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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton
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Today was most likely the coolest day in July, 74/67!

Good run on precip, pretty sure July is already up to average, with 22 more days left. But remind mother nature that does not mean I don't want it to storm anymore.. :P

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 53 (as of 12/3)
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - 0.50"
First freeze: Oct 9th
Measurable snows: 1
Coldest low: -3 (12/23)

Thunders
1/3, 1/12

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Today was most likely the coolest day in July, 74/67!

Good run on precip, pretty sure July is already up to average, with 22 more days left. But remind mother nature that does not mean I don't want it to storm anymore.. :P

I’ve had 8” of rain already this month. Trees are happy.

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20 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I talked to my uncle in Mt airy Md yesterday  and hes had less than .90 this month. He eeked out .65 yesterday, his crops are suffering  how far in that from you @Phil?

That’s about 40 miles north of here. Love that area. A much cooler climate than here, with more snowfall and more wind. When it’s 90°F here it’s often ~ 85°F up there.

In the summer we get the lee-trough induced afternoon wind switch to S/SE most days, which draws in the bay/river breeze front and pumps humidity right in here.

Where-as Mt. Airy usually keeps the westerly winds and is better mixed w/ lower humidity.

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7 hours ago, Niko said:

Having this splendid weather almost at mid July is amazing. Right now, dew is at 44F w a temp of 68F and not a cloud to be found. Just phenomenal.

What a gift from nature, right?  Just amazing wx to be had in the middle of Summer.  Had a high of 76F and deep blue skies along with a nice stiff NE wind off the lake.  Great bon fire weather.  The way I see it for the rest of summer is our region will escape much of the prolong heat waves that will form.  I'm sure we'll see more 90's but transient wx and a return to a more active stretch the following week as a NW Flow pattern arrives...the return of the "Ring of Fire".  

In terms of the Monsoon, it will fire right back up later this week as tropical moisture gets infused into the pattern.  Both GEFS/EPS showing the mean ridge to meander right over the S Plains which allows the southerly flow to return on the backside of this long term long wave feature.  

What about our Sub???  IMHO, those of us N of say, the I-80 corridor and points east into the GL's will be experiencing a NW Flow aloft allowing for several fronts to pass through starting later next weekend into the following week.  I see a more active pattern developing.  Models will eventually pick up on this as we get closer in time.

 

image.gif

 

 

image.gif

 

The big clue why I see the NW Flow returning Week 3 & 4 of the month is a flip back towards a -EPO and +PNA.  Surprisingly, all the models are in agreement.

 

image.png

 

image.png

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6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit...

I experienced 114 degree heat last year with the historic heatwave in the PNW. I do not care to experience it again. 

gfs_T2m_ncus_65.png

The Euro seems more realistic with temp though it's still hot also.  It does look like we will see triple digit heat which sucks.  

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Good Sunday Morning!

Another sunny day in Texas. 
Heading for 103.  I’ve lost track of how many days we’ve had over 100*.  It’s just a blur of heat rays off the ground.  

Heat index around 112*

2 More Weeks of 100-104 forecasted for No Texas  

Yup!

First rain I get I’m going to go dance in it!!  🤠🎸🎼🎶

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday was another great summer day with an official H/L of 80/55. There was once again no rain fall and 99% of possible sunshine. While the sunshine has been great it continues to be rather dry. For today the average H/L has reached the highest for the 30 year average with an average H/L of 83/63 and it will stay at that 83/63 until July 31st for the new 15 year average the average is now at 84/64 and that will stay the same until July 27th so this is on average the warmest days of the year at Grand Rapids. The overnight low in MBY was 52 and at the current time with clear skies it is 60. While there is a chance of some showers on Monday night there also may not be any. The rest of the week looks very dry and as is the case with dry conditions there can be some very warm to hot days with highs in the 80’s and lows ranging from the upper 50’s to the upper 60’s

 

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Not only has it been rather dry there continues to be a thunderstorm drought. At Grand Rapids there were only 4 thunderstorms in June (remember the term thunderstorm for this purpose can mean only one detected lightning flash in the area) and there has only been one reported "thunderstorm" so far in July at Grand Rapids. That one did indeed have some moderate lightning with it.

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Had a cold front earlier this week, the high today expected to be 96°F.

 

There was really big storms over Central Oklahoma that day. A microburst over Oklahoma City, and parts of the city got up to 3.5 inches of rain

Me? I got absolutely nothing. :(

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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As of 1:30 pm, 98 degrees with a heat index of 108 and a 70 dew. On our way to 104 with heat index possibly 110 or higher. Absolutely disgusting outside. My wife was going to take a walk, went outside and said not today. Days like this is, are why I love fall and winter. I can’t imagine living in this for a lot of the year as many in the south experience. 

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Currently 91 with a DP of 77. Topped out at 98 with a heat index of an eye-wattering 119 degrees. Not a fan.

As CentralNeb said, you can't do anything in this weather. It's one of those days where you quickly walk from the AC house to the AC car to the AC store and back. 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Currently 91 with a DP of 77. Topped out at 98 with a heat index of an eye-wattering 119 degrees. Not a fan.

As CentralNeb said, you can't do anything in this weather. It's one of those days where you quickly walk from the AC house to the AC car to the AC store and back. 

The Comeback Hot Weather GIF

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 53 (as of 12/3)
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - 0.50"
First freeze: Oct 9th
Measurable snows: 1
Coldest low: -3 (12/23)

Thunders
1/3, 1/12

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

As of 1:30 pm, 98 degrees with a heat index of 108 and a 70 dew. On our way to 104 with heat index possibly 110 or higher. Absolutely disgusting outside. My wife was going to take a walk, went outside and said not today. Days like this is, are why I love fall and winter. I can’t imagine living in this for a lot of the year as many in the south experience. 

Nebraska summers are definitely hot and humid, but the south is on a completely different level. 93/74 is no fun here, but that's just a regular summer day in Memphis. And when it's in the upper 90s/triple digits there, dews will usually be above 75. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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4 hours ago, Andie said:


103*
 

Again

 

 

I really hate to say this, but the models are being worryingly consistent for EXTREME temperatures by the end of July, it could reach up to 110*F in Northern Texas by that time.
 

College Station, TX reached 111*F today. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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surprise severe thunderstorm warning here. Storms are starting to weaken though. nice gust front should move through in about 15 minutes or so

 

Quote

NEC021-023-037-039-053-141-155-167-177-110730-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0234.000000T0000Z-220711T0730Z/
Burt NE-Cuming NE-Colfax NE-Platte NE-Washington NE-Dodge NE-
Butler NE-Saunders NE-Stanton NE-
158 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN BURT...SOUTHERN CUMING...COLFAX...EAST CENTRAL PLATTE...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...DODGE...NORTHEASTERN BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN
SAUNDERS AND SOUTHEASTERN STANTON COUNTIES...

At 158 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles south of Wisner to 5 miles south of Snyder to
near Octavia, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.
 

 

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3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

surprise severe thunderstorm warning here. Storms are starting to weaken though. nice gust front should move through in about 15 minutes or so

 

 

Quote

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
213 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Pottawattamie County in southwestern Iowa...
  Western Harrison County in southwestern Iowa...
  Northwestern Sarpy County in east central Nebraska...
  Southern Burt County in east central Nebraska...
  Southeastern Cuming County in northeastern Nebraska...
  Washington County in east central Nebraska...
  Central Dodge County in east central Nebraska...
  Douglas County in east central Nebraska...
  Northern Saunders County in east central Nebraska...

* Until 300 AM CDT.

* At 212 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles west of Oakland to 2 miles northwest of
  Nickerson to 4 miles northwest of Colon, moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

omaha in the action also 

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I'm really digging the latest model trends for the this coming Fri-Sun over the Upper MW/GL's as the models suddenly are picking up on the NW flow around the periphery of the Heat Dome across the C/S Plains.  0z EPS showing a short wave diving down south out of the prairies of S Canada into the Upper MW on Fri.  Interestingly, this is happening right when the +PNA pops, usually suggesting an amplified flow for the CONUS.  You can see the trends off the GEFS over the past 6 runs driving the NW Flow pattern into the MW/GL's instead of the "flatter" pattern it was suggesting a couple days ago.

 

image.gif

 

The result is a chance for precip this coming weekend and more seasonal temps instead of the Heat pushing east....another note is the signal for a stalled frontal boundary right over the ag belt KS/NE/MO/IA during the Sun/Mon period.

 

image.gif

 

0z EPS cooling the 16th-21st period near the eastern Sub...not as blow torch as in recent runs...prob seeing the wetter pattern??

Current run...

image.png

 

24 hours ago...

image.png

 

 

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I woke up to a line of severe storms on my doorstep, but the line faded quickly as it moved into Cedar Rapids.  The airport, south of the city, got heavier stuff.  It's pretty tame here.

The same area, from the CR airport down to Iowa City, has been hit hard repeatedly since late June.  It's even backbuilding down there again.  I wish the luck could be spread out a bit.

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season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A severe thunderstorm warning was issued here. Heavy rain and gusty winds rolled through. Its still coming down.  I forgot to empty my gauge, so I won’t be able to accurately tell how much though. Nice surprise this morning though. Especially considering the forecast is mostly hot and dry this week. 

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Season Snowfall: ~ 6.00"

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13 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Currently 91 with a DP of 77. Topped out at 98 with a heat index of an eye-wattering 119 degrees. Not a fan.

As CentralNeb said, you can't do anything in this weather. It's one of those days where you quickly walk from the AC house to the AC car to the AC store and back. 

The NWS for Sioux Falls showed a max heat index value of 104° yesterday. Just curious where you saw a reading of 119° as obviously that is a huge disparity. 
 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFSD.html

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Season Snowfall: ~ 6.00"

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53 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The NWS for Sioux Falls showed a max heat index value of 104° yesterday. Just curious where you saw a reading of 119° as obviously that is a huge disparity. 
 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFSD.html

The 119 was off my personal weather station HI calculations so I would assume FSD to be a bit more accurate. Either way, it was hotter than Hades. 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Can’t escape the “hound of hell” heat.
Husband must work through this. As a major city fleet manager, he keeps city emergency services able and ready in this state of emergency.  
My neighbors are escaping to New Mexico mountains.  But they haven’t heard the late July blowtorch news yet.  They may regret leaving quite so soon. They return to the real rough stuff.  
 

I’ve lived through 111* before.  
It’s really tough.  That’s Needles, Calif heat.  As long as the A/C holds out I can do this. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

But wait. I thought the governor said this was all solved after the last winter mass casualty event.🙄🙄

63C198D3-9E8B-44E2-A464-4AA514F42ACA.jpeg

Texas has said the same that we’re ok.  
If we lose power people will die by the boatload.  They know it.  
We’re all praying.  
 

AE36A011-0239-4528-BDC2-2794130CE987.jpeg

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Currently 103*.  Feels like 106*. 
Just put a large glass of ice in the birds water.  Too much for these guys to take.   I see so few birds.  Saw a hawk this morning hauling it 1/4 mi toward the lake.  Should have followed him! 
More mañana!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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They’re calling for 103 tomorrow.  That means it will be at least 105 with a higher index.   
I mean, who did we all piss off?  This is just crazy.  And a long way to go.  
Im concerned on several levels.  Usually we may get 2 weeks max of this insanity.  
 

Edit:       Our wind has finally moved off of 0.   We had 10 mph winds which increased our wind power generation.  Power Auth was warning us of failures as the wind generators were flat.  

Citizens raised their thermostats and conserved. We dodged the bullet.   If this continues they may restrict industrial usage.  
Its getting rough.  But this heat could kill so we’d best cooperate.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Hot is the word today, currently 98 with a Heat Index of 106.  Very small chance of thunderstorms tonight behind a nice cold front that will drop temps into the mid 80s tomorrow.

Yup prolly the front that just blew through here. It's a nice one!

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