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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

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  1. 1. More original name title?

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    • Preferance Wars
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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure... control run looks similar though.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500-7540800.png

Well I’m pretty sure.

EPS mean certainly looks more reasonable. Not many members look like the Operational/Control run. Probably an outlier.

277FA85B-E867-46B3-8D17-3D0F240B9C85.gif

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

image.gif.f0585a626be7ae23f4c7bdfe77342236.gif

 

I'm in the dark green!!!

Phil's in the yellow!!!

I’m not impressed with the setup here. Should be marginal risk.

Good chance I end up with nothing but lots of unrealized CAPE.

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well I’m pretty sure.

EPS mean certainly looks more reasonable. Not many members look like the Operational/Control run. Probably an outlier.

277FA85B-E867-46B3-8D17-3D0F240B9C85.gif

12Z EPS is just lovely.... 

103306950_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1656763200-1656763200-1658059200-10(1).gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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67F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant day so far!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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38 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not impressed with the setup here. Should be marginal risk.

Good chance I end up with nothing but lots of unrealized CAPE.

Those guys have to do a map for the entire country.  Impossible for them to know every nuance of any given area.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

67F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant day so far!

How many 90+ days this year, and what was last year up to this point?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

63 and cloudy. 
Had a low of 48! ⛄️ 

I'm really impressed you managed 48 last night.  It only dropped to 56 here. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Totally forgot to post a pic of the campsite area. Didn’t get very good shot but there’s 5 dugouts for 6-8 person tents and then we put up a few big wall tents on platforms that could hold 8-10 people if needed. C3183FB6-E48B-423A-9FF7-E80D7665A2D8.thumb.jpeg.0a66748fa586e846e0a3b50aa02593dd.jpeg
D41FD351-AF71-488F-9528-55D13128E642.thumb.jpeg.729c85c14ee0e57ea4e3e36430450ab7.jpeg

For anyone ballsy enough there’s a campsite in the lower orchard away from the house and shop. Nobody wanted it last weekend after we saw two bears and a cougar in the valley 🙃 24EC54ED-88D7-40C1-B390-62FA2C291085.thumb.jpeg.d5a4b1eeb4b17ce4fa06ba55ebf7102a.jpeg

And finally here is a picture of my son cheering me down the slip n slide that was too good not to share. It looks like it could be an ad for it or something.4FAABFA5-2EA1-4EC8-A640-D5A0918A24E2.thumb.jpeg.148d802ccd1de8d29fd011fdfda46150.jpeg/social media post

That slip n slide looks slick! 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Been away for a bit. What's the latest on the storm threat tomorrow?

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM.

All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific.

And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August.

Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? 😶

2344C44D-2AAE-4BC0-9167-A89B46AEA8DA.png

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Struggling to hit 60 today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

How many 90+ days this year, and what was last year up to this point?

3 so far and Springfield had 11 by this point last year. We're doing much better.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM.

All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific.

And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August.

Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? 😶

2344C44D-2AAE-4BC0-9167-A89B46AEA8DA.png

 

On 5/4/2022 at 1:38 PM, Kayla said:

I saw you mention a warm August is possible. A lot of the analog years for this summer point to a below average June with a warm July and a much below average August. What makes you think August will be the warm month?

That 1975 analog is still working out pretty well so far!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

That 1975 analog is still working out pretty well so far!

Haha, well done. I might’ve fallen victim to recency bias in assuming late summer would be warm by default.

Gonna be an interesting case study either way.

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Dewpoint of 78°F and we can’t even buy a raindrop. :lol: 

Plenty of dry lightning, though!

 

 

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Some impressive storms firing up over the Central WA Cascades in the last couple hours.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Some impressive storms firing up over the Central WA Cascades in the last couple hours.

Yeah looks very impressive on the radar. 

7C36D5DF-AA06-4C57-BA6C-9FE1B46A25B7.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM.

All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific.

And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August.

Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? 😶

2344C44D-2AAE-4BC0-9167-A89B46AEA8DA.png

I'm pretty sure when I looked at that a few months ago we haven't had a cool August since 2001 or thereabouts.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Had some PM sub breaks and hit 65 today. Looks like most valley locations were low 70s. Cooler than any day in July last year.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Had some PM sub breaks and hit 65 today. Looks like most valley locations were low 70s. Cooler than any day in July last year.

Yeah looked back at my records and the coldest day last July was 69/55. Just one sub 70 day last year and we should have 3 in a row by the 4th of this year. 

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Saw a lot of lightning yesterday in Chennai, no rain though, with some impressive cloud to cloud and cloud to ground strikes. I guess the hot/humid weather is almost worth it for the thunderstorms. PNW summers would be amazing right now though, compared to heat index values of 118°

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21 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Saw a lot of lightning yesterday in Chennai, no rain though, with some impressive cloud to cloud and cloud to ground strikes. I guess the hot/humid weather is almost worth it for the thunderstorms. PNW summers would be amazing right now though, compared to heat index values of 118°

Yeah I’ll stomach the oppressive swamp conditions if it means we get nailed by convection.

Problem is 75% of the time it misses and we’re left with truckloads of wasted CAPE.

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Praise the lord for this life-giving blessing.

#WaterIsLife #H2OisTheWayToGo #NorthBendStyle

 

 

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