Phil Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Not sure... control run looks similar though. Well I’m pretty sure. EPS mean certainly looks more reasonable. Not many members look like the Operational/Control run. Probably an outlier. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 I'm in the dark green!!! Phil's in the yellow!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: I'm in the dark green!!! Phil's in the yellow!!! I’m not impressed with the setup here. Should be marginal risk. Good chance I end up with nothing but lots of unrealized CAPE. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, Phil said: Well I’m pretty sure. EPS mean certainly looks more reasonable. Not many members look like the Operational/Control run. Probably an outlier. 12Z EPS is just lovely.... 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 63 and cloudy. Had a low of 48! ️ 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 67F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant day so far! 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 38 minutes ago, Phil said: I’m not impressed with the setup here. Should be marginal risk. Good chance I end up with nothing but lots of unrealized CAPE. Those guys have to do a map for the entire country. Impossible for them to know every nuance of any given area. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 67F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant day so far! How many 90+ days this year, and what was last year up to this point? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, MossMan said: 63 and cloudy. Had a low of 48! ️ I'm really impressed you managed 48 last night. It only dropped to 56 here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 Some much needed summer relief down in northern CA. This is usually a column of 90s and 100s this time of year. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 Big shower here in Sunriver. Enormous raindrops. Heading SE now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post snow_wizard Posted July 2, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 Apparently there was quite an aurora last night. This is from Mount Rainer National Park. 12 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Some much needed summer relief down in northern CA. This is usually a column of 90s and 100s this time of year. Eureka is 56, but they are at the coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 4 hours ago, RentonHillTC said: Totally forgot to post a pic of the campsite area. Didn’t get very good shot but there’s 5 dugouts for 6-8 person tents and then we put up a few big wall tents on platforms that could hold 8-10 people if needed. For anyone ballsy enough there’s a campsite in the lower orchard away from the house and shop. Nobody wanted it last weekend after we saw two bears and a cougar in the valley And finally here is a picture of my son cheering me down the slip n slide that was too good not to share. It looks like it could be an ad for it or something./social media post That slip n slide looks slick! 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 Been away for a bit. What's the latest on the storm threat tomorrow? Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM. All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific. And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August. Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? 2 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 67F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant day so far! Not if you want to do this. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 Struggling to hit 60 today. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 63 here…looks like there’s some decent convection over central Oregon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 IMG_4644.MOV Just stopped by Fort Rock. Bad picture but I found these red ants everywhere. Turns out these are Harvester Ants… all over the Great Basin and have a painful sting. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 48 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Day Night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: How many 90+ days this year, and what was last year up to this point? 3 so far and Springfield had 11 by this point last year. We're doing much better. 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 Gfs continues to insist it’ll end up wetter than the euro. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM. All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific. And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August. Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? On 5/4/2022 at 1:38 PM, Kayla said: I saw you mention a warm August is possible. A lot of the analog years for this summer point to a below average June with a warm July and a much below average August. What makes you think August will be the warm month? That 1975 analog is still working out pretty well so far! 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Kayla said: That 1975 analog is still working out pretty well so far! Haha, well done. I might’ve fallen victim to recency bias in assuming late summer would be warm by default. Gonna be an interesting case study either way. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 Dewpoint of 78°F and we can’t even buy a raindrop. Plenty of dry lightning, though! FullSizeRender.MOV 2 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 1 hour ago, TacomaWx said: Gfs continues to insist it’ll end up wetter than the euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 Some impressive storms firing up over the Central WA Cascades in the last couple hours. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said: Some impressive storms firing up over the Central WA Cascades in the last couple hours. Yeah looks very impressive on the radar. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Phil said: Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM. All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific. And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August. Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? I'm pretty sure when I looked at that a few months ago we haven't had a cool August since 2001 or thereabouts. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 Had some PM sub breaks and hit 65 today. Looks like most valley locations were low 70s. Cooler than any day in July last year. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 A cool 66/55 today with some sunshine in the evening. Ended up being pretty nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Had some PM sub breaks and hit 65 today. Looks like most valley locations were low 70s. Cooler than any day in July last year. Yeah looked back at my records and the coldest day last July was 69/55. Just one sub 70 day last year and we should have 3 in a row by the 4th of this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 Really hoping we can atleast get a decent thunderstorm west of the crest at some point tonight or tomorrow…even if it’s to the east of here aways would love some lightning photos. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 Saw a lot of lightning yesterday in Chennai, no rain though, with some impressive cloud to cloud and cloud to ground strikes. I guess the hot/humid weather is almost worth it for the thunderstorms. PNW summers would be amazing right now though, compared to heat index values of 118° 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Featured Comment Popular Post DareDuck Posted July 3, 2022 Featured Comment Popular Post Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 Amazing storm in Bend today. Over .5-.75” across a lot of town. Near quarter size hail, tons of CG, and even hail fog. Going on almost two hours of hearing thunder. 17 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Saw a lot of lightning yesterday in Chennai, no rain though, with some impressive cloud to cloud and cloud to ground strikes. I guess the hot/humid weather is almost worth it for the thunderstorms. PNW summers would be amazing right now though, compared to heat index values of 118° Yeah I’ll stomach the oppressive swamp conditions if it means we get nailed by convection. Problem is 75% of the time it misses and we’re left with truckloads of wasted CAPE. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Yeah I’ll stomach the oppressive swamp conditions if it means we get nailed by convection. Problem is 75% of the time it misses and we’re left with truckloads of wasted CAPE. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2022 Report Share Posted July 3, 2022 Praise the lord for this life-giving blessing. #WaterIsLife #H2OisTheWayToGo #NorthBendStyle FullSizeRender.MOV Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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