Phil Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 What was 1964/65 like up there? That winter followed the big Agung eruption. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: What was 1964/65 like up there? That winter followed the big Agung eruption. December had a quick but very cold intrusion of arctic air (December record low at PDX iirc) followed by record flooding for many parts of Oregon over Christmas. Not sure about the rest of the winter off the top of my head. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 29 minutes ago, Phil said: What was 1964/65 like up there? That winter followed the big Agung eruption. Wet. Major arctic blast in December. Big cold onshore flow early January. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 #one90july??? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wet. Major arctic blast in December. Big cold onshore flow early January. Kind of a rich man’s 1998-99 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Interestingly, 2000 and 2001 have been the closest 500mb matches over North America this summer. Obviously not nearly as extreme as those years, but it’s interesting to see a pattern like that (Plains ridging with troughs on the coasts) is still possible today. Also, 2000 and 2001 were the coolest Julys ever recorded at Reagan National Airport. Such a strange La Niña that was. Huge aberration in an otherwise disgusting trend. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Pheels like winter forecast mania is getting an early start! The only appropriate phorm at this stage is still vague month/year posts. 1 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 SSTs are over 90°F in the Gulf of Mexico right now. There are even a few 92-93°F readings in the shallows. If anything gets going there, look out. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: SSTs are over 90°F in the Gulf of Mexico right now. There are even a few 92-93°F readings in the shallows. If anything gets going there, look out. D**n! Shits almost boiling off at this point. Good for offsetting sea level rise? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Phil said: SSTs are over 90°F in the Gulf of Mexico right now. There are even a few 92-93°F readings in the shallows. If anything gets going there, look out. Oops 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 December/January 1964/65 had 42” of precip at silver falls. Lol 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Oops Lmao. Looks like that arises from a tiny cluster of thunderstorms on a decaying cold front. I’d discount it 95% of the time, but once water temperatures reach the low 90s, literally anything can go off. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: December/January 1964/65 had 42” of precip at silver falls. Lol Bet you’d love that. IMO it would be a top analog if the QBO wasn’t out of phase. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Deweydog said: #one90july??? 89 here tomorrow. PDX will probably flip that and go all 98 degrees on us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Hell yes 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Pretty solid euro run IMO some nice days and some rain mixed in after a fairly typical shortlived heatwave Monday and Tuesday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 1991/92 was a strong El Niño in the middle of a monster solar maximum in a record breaking +AO regime (partly brought on by O^3 depletion, a result of both anthropogenic CFCs and intense geomagnetic activity). And 1982/83 was a frickin super niño, also right in the middle of a massive geomagnetic maximum. Both of those winters were *uniquely* stacked against significant middle latitude cold. The fact they both followed significant volcanic eruptions is dumb luck. Look what happened in some of the follow-up winters that were setup more favorably for cold: 1983/84: Significant nationwide arctic outbreak in December. Weak Niña. 1984/85: One of the most prolific CONUS arctic blasts on record in January. DC dropped to -11°F. Weak Niña. 1993/94: Record breaking cold in parts of the US. ENSO neutral. 2022/23 looks like a deep La Niña, possibly bonafide strong. With a rapidly descending +QBO at the ideal time to maximize the NPAC high response. Don’t see any reason for a zonal outcome. At least not now. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Pretty solid euro run IMO some nice days and some rain mixed in after a fairly typical shortlived heatwave Monday and Tuesday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: You didn’t crop out D10? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Very nice…of course that’s on the cool side of reality too since it’s the euro Monday and Tuesday will be warmer than that but plenty of nice days and hopefully some rain early next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Phil said: You didn’t crop out D10? 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, Phil said: You didn’t crop out D10? July 20th is looking very cold. Good sign for the coming winter 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 30 minutes ago, Phil said: 1991/92 was a strong El Niño in the middle of a monster solar maximum in a record breaking +AO regime (partly brought on by O^3 depletion, a result of both anthropogenic CFCs and intense geomagnetic activity). And 1982/83 was a frickin super niño, also right in the middle of a massive geomagnetic maximum. Both of those winters were *uniquely* stacked against significant middle latitude cold. The fact they both followed significant volcanic eruptions is dumb luck. Look what happened in some of the follow-up winters that were setup more favorably for cold: 1983/84: Significant nationwide arctic outbreak in December. Weak Niña. 1984/85: One of the most prolific CONUS arctic blasts on record in January. DC dropped to -11°F. Weak Niña. 1993/94: Record breaking cold in parts of the US. ENSO neutral. 2022/23 looks like a deep La Niña, possibly bonafide strong. With a rapidly descending +QBO at the ideal time to maximize the NPAC high response. Don’t see any reason for a zonal outcome. At least not now. Not to mention 1992-93 is the best winter in the PNW since at least 1985. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Not to mention 1992-93 is the best winter in the PNW since at least 1985. And that winter’s setup wasn’t favorable for middle latitude cold either. Though Tonga is a bit different in that a large quantity of H2O was ejected in addition to various aerosols. So it’s an interesting test case. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Hope they brought a change of underwear. 4 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, T-Town said: Hope they brought a change of underwear. That's pretty wild. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Hmmm... Checking out November 1964, looks like Silver Falls recorded 10" of snow on the 13th that month. Not bad given we probably haven't had 10" total in November in the 11 years I've lived here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Offshore SSTs are looking relatively warm, the recent pattern has really suppressed coastal upwelling. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Been a stellar month so far. 10/10 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Clouds still hanging tough. Getting some filtered sunshine now after being cloudy for most of the morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 73 and partly sunny here great day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 1 hour ago, T-Town said: Hope they brought a change of underwear. Was wondering why they didn’t haul a$$ the minute they saw it was coming…. since it looked pretty open. Guess it was because they already decided to stay in an area that can be sheltered from the avalanche once they changed the camera angles. Had they hauled a** and being in a more opened area, it would be bad. pretty wild Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 1 hour ago, T-Town said: Hope they brought a change of underwear. As expected, it was already an area they decided to shelter. 10 people. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 43 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: Offshore SSTs are looking relatively warm, the recent pattern has really suppressed coastal upwelling. Maybe we can score another major die off event for marine life 4 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 5 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: We were living in Stevenson, WA at the time and it was one of the more epic storms I’ve experienced personally. Had a couple highs in the teens and over a foot of snow. All with very strong winds throuout. What brought you to Stevenson? Such an interesting small town with interesting Gorge weather. So quiet and rural but not far from Vancouver. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said: What brought you to Stevenson? Such an interesting small town with interesting Gorge weather. So quiet and rural but not far from Vancouver. I was an AmeriCorps reading tutor at Carson elementary. Worked there for three years! 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Maybe we can score another major die off event for marine life Don’t worry… the invasive European green crabs are doing that for us already between OR and WA. Some 5000% explosion in population. And they munch on our shellfish here. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 Another picture perfect day. Can we make it last all summer!?! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 57 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Maybe we can score another major die off event for marine life Cold kills too. Do you lie awake at night worrying about nature hurting itself with cold? How did the Earth make it billions of years without you around to worry about it. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: Another picture perfect day. Can we make it last all summer!?! Way nicer than I was expecting. I had pegged this day to be cloudy with late day clearing and a high struggling to 70. That is what the ECMWF had been showing. It's been sunny almost all day and it's just as warm out here as it was yesterday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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