On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Deweydog]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A nuclear war between two countries would be enough to plunge the world into a “Little Ice Age”, scientists have warned.

Researchers found that even nations not involved in the dispute would suffer crop failures and plummeting temperatures, as the soot and smoke from nuclear firestorms thousands of miles away would block out the sun.

In the first month following nuclear detonation, average global temperatures would plunge by about 13F - a larger temperature change than in the last Ice Age, warned experts from Louisiana State and Rutgers universities.

CFS has been hinting at this for the last forever.

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A nuclear war between two countries would be enough to plunge the world into a “Little Ice Age”, scientists have warned.

Researchers found that even nations not involved in the dispute would suffer crop failures and plummeting temperatures, as the soot and smoke from nuclear firestorms thousands of miles away would block out the sun.

In the first month following nuclear detonation, average global temperatures would plunge by about 13F - a larger temperature change than in the last Ice Age, warned experts from Louisiana State and Rutgers universities.

Not sure about the ice age comparison. In some regions the last ice age dropped temperatures by 40°F+, while other regions warmed slightly.

Totally different processes. And different climatic manifestations.

[Deweydog]

Mother Nature was played by Bette Midler on the Earth Day Special in 1990. Don’t get much whiter than that. I, for one, think we’ve come a long way since then and I hope Hollywood will come together soon for another bite at that PC apple.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Apparently Portland had the second longest streak without a subfreezing high from Jan 17th, 2017 to Feb 11th, 2021. The first by a long shot was Dec 24th, 1998 to Jan 4th, 2004.

Hold my beer...

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hold my beer...

Next winter I hope you manage a few

[Cascadia_Wx]

79/56 day here. Some scattered clouds early then mostly clear and sunny. Another great summer day.

Looking forward to a 1-2 day spell of 90s starting tomorrow before things cool back into the 70s and 80s for the foreseeable future 

[Doinko]

Looks like a COOP station ~5 miles SW of me dropped to 3 degrees in December 1972! The monthly data is sadly password protected on the WRCC... but it's still interesting!

[Doinko]

Actually I was able to find the official records on the NCDC page. The location from January 1972 to July 1985 is here 1 mile NW of Beaverton (Around 4.5-5 miles away from me), but then it got moved 2 miles SSW of Beaverton in July 1985. 

Here's data from December 1972. 9 straight subfreezing highs in a row!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Actually I was able to find the official records on the NCDC page. The location from January 1972 to July 1985 is here 1 mile NW of Beaverton (Around 4.5-5 miles away from me), but then it got moved 2 miles SSW of Beaverton in July 1985. 

Here's data from December 1972. 9 straight subfreezing highs in a row!

And the average temp from the winter of 1978-79 was 35.87°F

[Doinko]

It also shows a temp of 0 degrees during the Dec 1983 blast, but that doesn't seem right. The WRCC doesn't count it at least. Hillsboro also only dropped to 10 and it is usually colder.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the EPS and the GEFS both look pretty warm in a couple weeks.   

Not that it matters... but I would prefer something similar to the last few days.   It does not get much better in the summer in my opinion.

 

[TT-SEA]

The Wednesday cool down looks like it will be mostly sunny now... the ECMWF shows only scattered marine layer clouds in the morning that day.    This entire work week should be pretty much wall-to-wall sun which will be quite different than last week.    Right now the upcoming weekend looks like a repeat of yesterday.

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the EPS and the GEFS both look pretty warm in a couple weeks.   

Not that it matters... but I would prefer something similar to the last few days.   It does not get much better in the summer in my opinion.

 

Take that with a grain of salt. There’s clearly a trough either missing or smoothed over on that 500mb mean.

[Phil]

Amazing how out-to-lunch the operational GFS can be.

06z vs it’s ensemble mean. Wtf?

[Meatyorologist]

Got down to 56F at my place. Probably the boiling point of water at KSEA, idk.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Got down to 56F at my place. Probably the boiling point of water at KSEA, idk.

Lmao. Speaking of boiling water:

 

[Meatyorologist]

Did some cleanup. Lost maybe a quarter of my braincells... Would have been better off chugging consecutive shots of drain cleaner and sniffing glue.

This is stuff I was guilty of yesterday, and I apologize. @TacomaWaWx called me out and he was right... It's driving potential members away, particularly the very civil, bright, valuable minds in the education and govt sectors of meteorology. Figures like Jay only show up so often and to lose someone with experience like that again would be quite sad.

[Meatyorologist]

In other news, @Doiinko has been on a tear with the awesome recaps.

Let's post more like them! 🌨

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Take that with a grain of salt.

As always.

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

In other news, @Doiinko has been on a tear with the awesome recaps.

Let's post more like them! 🌨

Thank you! I enjoy looking into events like that, though I'm not an expert at all haha.

[Doinko]

This site is really fun to play with. A lot of people probably know about it, but I thought that I would share: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/

You can go back and see past AFDs, Public Information Statements (Rainfall, Wind reports, snow reports) and warnings, and plot a lot of data like consecutive days at a certain temperature, days per year with precip and a lot of other options. You can also compare months/seasons from different years, like as an example December 2013 vs 2008 across the region: (Red means Dec 2013 was colder, Blue means 2008 was colder)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December 1972 is one of the greatest in Western Oregon. A slightly juicier version of December 2013.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December 1972 is one of the greatest in Western Oregon. A slightly juicier version of December 2013.

That one has to be a top 5 event for here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

This site is really fun to play with. A lot of people probably know about it, but I thought that I would share: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/

You can go back and see past AFDs, Public Information Statements (Rainfall, Wind reports, snow reports) and warnings, and plot a lot of data like consecutive days at a certain temperature, days per year with precip and a lot of other options. You can also compare months/seasons from different years, like as an example December 2013 vs 2008 across the region: (Red means Dec 2013 was colder, Blue means 2008 was colder)

I needed to be productive at work today. Not sure its gonna happen now!

 

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

It also shows a temp of 0 degrees during the Dec 1983 blast, but that doesn't seem right. The WRCC doesn't count it at least. Hillsboro also only dropped to 10 and it is usually colder.

Vancouver (78th St. area) got down to 1 with that, so I think there were a few parts of the metro area that touched 0 with that one.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Vancouver (78th St. area) got down to 1 with that, so I think there were a few parts of the metro area that touched 0 with that one.

I guess it could make sense, the WRCC shows the coolest temp as 3 degrees (Dec 1972) though. My area isn't typically the coldest spot in the Metro area at night, I think we were actually warmer than PDX on Jan 13th, 2017, but maybe we got luckier those times.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

I guess it could make sense, the WRCC shows the coolest temp as 3 degrees (Dec 1972) though. My area isn't typically the coldest spot in the Metro area at night, I think we were actually warmer than PDX on Jan 13th, 2017, but maybe we got luckier those times.

Then again the station is also 5 miles SSE from me, farther away from the West Hills, so they could have colder lows because of less wind.

[T-Town]

47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December 1972 is one of the greatest in Western Oregon. A slightly juicier version of December 2013.

My first winter weather memory is from around this time. Woke up to no power, arctic cold and big snow drifts. Not sure of the year but it would make sense that it was December 1972 if that blast produced a decent snowstorm in Tacoma. 

[T-Town]

66 here already with a nice breeze. Nws says 87 today in tacoma so hopefully the breeze keeps going. 

[Doinko]

Unrelated but I kind of forgot about the August heatwave of last year, since the big one obviously overshadowed it. 103 at PDX without much offshore flow as well I think.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the entire state of WA is cloud free at the moment.   Might be the first time this year that has happened.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

Beautiful morning here. 64 and sunny after a low of 57. Should be heading for low to mid 90s today but we are heading for the coast anyway.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Did some cleanup. Lost maybe a quarter of my braincells... Would have been better off chugging consecutive shots of drain cleaner and sniffing glue.

This is stuff I was guilty of yesterday, and I apologize. @TacomaWaWx called me out and he was right... It's driving potential members away, particularly the very civil, bright, valuable minds in the education and govt sectors of meteorology. Figures like Jay only show up so often and to lose someone with experience like that again would be quite sad.

I was guilty of it too. Usually try to steer clear of those topics but failed at that yesterday.

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

My first winter weather memory is from around this time. Woke up to no power, arctic cold and big snow drifts. Not sure of the year but it would make sense that it was December 1972 if that blast produced a decent snowstorm in Tacoma. 

Sea tac had around 5" of snow towards the end of the blast

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

This site is really fun to play with. A lot of people probably know about it, but I thought that I would share: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/

You can go back and see past AFDs, Public Information Statements (Rainfall, Wind reports, snow reports) and warnings, and plot a lot of data like consecutive days at a certain temperature, days per year with precip and a lot of other options. You can also compare months/seasons from different years, like as an example December 2013 vs 2008 across the region: (Red means Dec 2013 was colder, Blue means 2008 was colder)

One of my top bookmarks for local climatology. Such an amazing resource. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

00z EPs looks pretty good following this mini heatwave 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It will be in the upper 60s in my office today. 

[TT-SEA]

New 12Z GFS is definitely more robust with the trough on Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

67/55°F yesterday at my home*, with plenty of cloud cover lingering over Rattlesnake Mountain for most of the afternoon. Baby ducks must have been enjoying the cloud cover, because they were quite active at our little neighborhood lake. The lake level is much higher at this point in summer than the last few years.  Cloud cover was not the case down in town, where the sun shone bright and we endured riding Thomas the Train with our kids in the AM.  

*yes, there was probably a very minor temperature difference than at TT-SEA's location, does not require comment.

We had to make a trip up to Bellingham so we were not here in the afternoon.   It was mostly sunny and 70 at our house when we left late morning.   The station nearest to my house just down the road recorded 75 for a high yesterday and North Bend came in at 77.

[Phil]

Already an impressive thermocline response. And this trade surge will continue for several weeks at least. In fact another major “surge within the surge” seems likely in mid-August.

Niño 3.4 SSTAs should begin dropping within a week.