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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think there is generally more atmospheric moisture with global warming. I was wondering the other day if there was a way to show some sort of trend with the peak DPs at PDX during heat waves over the years. Seems like they have gotten higher in at least the last few decades that I have been observing but that is fairly anecdotal.

That probably has a great deal to do with why summers are now so endogenously warm... Even our cool patterns are stunted by 4-6F due to roided DP's.

And while it is a global problem, our normally dry summer environment leaves us particularly susceptible to moistening. A place like DC for instance definitely has gotten more moist, but it can only get so saturated, like an already sopping sponge. Extra moisture in the tropics and places like DC (SE Asia too) is shunted north and absorbed by the parch midlatitudes (made more parched by the uneven warming targeting the poles and midlatitudes more than the subtropics and tropics!)

Another factor may be the recent roiding of the 4CH and the northward displacement of the descending hadley cell. It leaves us under the crossfire of increasingly prevelant SW'lies, potentially forcing even more localized warming and moistening over the western US. One of the hallmarks of the cold summers of the 50s and even 90s and early 2000s was deep troughing and persistent NW flow. Now we can't sustain NW'lies for more than a few days at a time, and deep troughing is incredibly transient, more so than normal summer climo. How much of that is due to AGW is unclear but it sure has put a dampener on our summer cooling abilities.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This makes sense. It's interesting looking at the Silver Falls data, they used to have single digit lows fairly regularly. At least once every 2-3 years, and in 1955-56 they had one every month November-February. They've only had single digit lows recorded in 2009 and 2013 this century. It has to be more than happenstance. 

The big thing I notice about the lows is in the fall, when I moved up here the average first freeze date was September 23rd. We haven't had a frost before that date since I've lived here, and have only had freezes in September once or twice. Off the top of my head I would say our average first freeze since 2011 has been probably around October 20th. 

I’ve looked into this. It seems like 1998-99 is when a major shift happened and Western cold just drastically dropped in frequency. Before 1998 Government Camp would get subzero lows about once-twice a year on average. Since 1999 it’s only happened a couple times, about once every 4-5 years. I think it’s a system state / circulation change of some sort.

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I’ve looked into this. It seems like 1998-99 is when a major shift happened and Western cold just drastically dropped in frequency. Before 1998 Government Camp would get subzero lows about once-twice a year on average. Since 1999 it’s only happened a couple times, about once every 4-5 years. I think it’s a system state / circulation change of some sort.

That and the unthinkable amount of excess energy in the atmosphere compared to then.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Gunning for the 2071-2100 normal of 88F today

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Here are some graphs I've made comparing my Vancouver and Battle Ground stations to Portland. 

Note I've only had my BG station since 2011, so that's as far as those graphs go.

Last year was the first 60+ average for the entire summer at PDX.

The top line in all graphs is PDX, then my Vancouver station followed by BG.

Average Lows Long Term.jpg

60+ Long Term.jpg

Coldest.jpg

Average Lows.jpg

60+.jpg

Edited by Tyler Mode
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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 95/57 day yesterday. Pretty much in line with what seemed to be expected at least up here.

Clear with a low of 62 this morning. Kind of crazy to see PDX struggle to fall below 70. It used to take an exceptional event for lows like that there, now it seems to happen just about every other heat event.

Last night wasn’t a fluke, though. The thermal trough was parked right over the valley which never mixed out fully yesterday which allowed dew points to remain elevated and kept an ever so slight subsidence inversion in place. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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20 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Here are some graphs I've made comparing my Vancouver and Battle Ground stations to Portland. 

Note I've only had my BG station since 2011, so that's as far as those graphs go.

Last year was the first 60+ average for the entire summer at PDX.

The top line in all graphs is PDX, then my Vancouver station followed by BG.

Average Lows Long Term.jpg

60+ Long Term.jpg

Coldest.jpg

Average Lows.jpg

60+.jpg

Good stuff, we can clearly see the trend is less apparent on the more "rural" BG station. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s extremely clear out there can confirm0CC04355-041D-40D6-AE52-B4F47365CE98.thumb.jpeg.a594686118a322ae4d1979c76388935e.jpeg

What are those weird floating things. ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z ECMWF is significantly less troughy in the long range compared to its 00Z run.      Massive vortex up in Alaska at the end of the run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The way I sees it is the longer we can run out the clock on summer without a major heatwave the better. I’m sure August will August like usual but at that point we only have a month, month and a half left where things can get really terrible.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The way I sees it is the longer we can run out the clock on summer without a major heatwave the better. I’m sure August will August like usual but at that point we only have a month, month and a half left where things can get really terrible.

The first half won’t end up bad at all just a couple warm days. 

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14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The way I sees it is the longer we can run out the clock on summer without a major heatwave the better. I’m sure August will August like usual but at that point we only have a month, month and a half left where things can get really terrible.

Thats how i'm looking at it too. Clock is ticking...looking for any signs of longer range heat bombs to show up. Plus we have @Phil on our side for the intermediate/long term. What could go wrong? 

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16 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Salem got to 100. Pretty impressive overperformance.

 

14 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How on earth did that happen? My car thermometer said 100 this afternoon but that usually runs a few degrees high. Silverton was only 95. We hit 90 here, so a 10 degree difference.

 

12 hours ago, Doiinko said:

PDX only hit 95, but Salem got hotter than they did during the heatwave in June!

I'm not surprised. Salem was also the hottest location in the Willamette Valley during the 2 hottest days of the June heatwave last year.

highs-today-dma-4.thumb.png.298d3c80bb6f786c5399215e08da0c18.png

highs-monday-28th-northwest.thumb.png.52ba41bc7247481eb3c29cc3e2732183.png

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

 

I'm not surprised. Salem was also the hottest location during the 2 hottest days of the June heatwave last year.

highs-today-dma-4.thumb.png.298d3c80bb6f786c5399215e08da0c18.png

highs-monday-28th-northwest.thumb.png.52ba41bc7247481eb3c29cc3e2732183.png

Salem often is the warmest location in the summer since they're mid-valley and pretty removed from any coastal gaps.

Their 100 yesterday was fairly ridiculous, though. 

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26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The way I sees it is the longer we can run out the clock on summer without a major heatwave the better. I’m sure August will August like usual but at that point we only have a month, month and a half left where things can get really terrible.

Totally agree. By the time we get into late August, TRADITIONALLY the big heatwaves only roast us for a couple days and we get some decent cooling at night. 

Personally I would be absolutely stunned if we don't see a significant heatwave in August. Something along the lines of 2016 later in the month seems about right. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA is doing SEA things today. Already up to 81 and running a couple degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. 

BFI is 75 and right on pace as yesterday. 

65F here currently. Might not crack 70F. This is going to end up a pretty wimpy "heat wave" for the north sound if we end up having only one day that was about 4 degrees above normal.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Salem often is the warmest location in the summer since they're mid-valley and pretty removed from any coastal gaps.

Their 100 yesterday was fairly ridiculous, though. 

Yeah, SLE can really bake compared to a lot of other spots in the valley. EUG gets more marine influence as the gap in the coast range is a lot lower down that way and they are often on the vanguard of southerly marine pushes. I really don't know what to think of the 100 at SLE yesterday, my car was reading 100 when I left work, but I was still stunned to find that the airport had hit 100, by the time I got to Silverton around 5:30, which was the exact time SLE hit the century mark, the thermometer was reading 95, and then by the time I got home 20 minutes later it was 84 up here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

65F here currently. Might not crack 70F. This is going to end up a pretty wimpy "heat wave" for the north sound if we end up having only one day that was about 4 degrees above normal.

Didn't think it was going to make it that far north based on the models. The GFS had shown most of the heat was concentrated around the Puget Sound areas. I'm definitely okay with these short burst heatwaves. 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, SLE can really bake compared to a lot of other spots in the valley. EUG gets more marine influence as the gap in the coast range is a lot lower down that way and they are often on the vanguard of southerly marine pushes. I really don't know what to think of the 100 at SLE yesterday, my car was reading 100 when I left work, but I was still stunned to find that the airport had hit 100, by the time I got to Silverton around 5:30, which was the exact time SLE hit the century mark, the thermometer was reading 95, and then by the time I got home 20 minutes later it was 84 up here. 

Next closest station to that was MMV at 97. A +3 over the rest of the valley is a little sketchy but at least on the fringes of believability. Not sure if it's a trend or not but if it keeps happening then it could mean an overexposure issue. 

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25 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA is doing SEA things today. Already up to 81 and running a couple degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. 

BFI is 75 and right on pace as yesterday. 

SEA is at 79 and BFI is at 78.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Didn't think it was going to make it that far north based on the models. The GFS had shown most of the heat was concentrated around the Puget Sound areas. I'm definitely okay with these short burst heatwaves. 

Yeah, today was never shown to be particularly warm on any of the models (or yesterday even), but it's still amazing to me that places in a somewhat similar climate set-up (Salem) but just a couple hundred miles south can hit 100F.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Next closest station to that was MMV at 97. A +3 over the rest of the valley is a little sketchy but at least on the fringes of believability. Not sure if it's a trend or not but if it keeps happening then it could mean an overexposure issue. 

Generally if we are at 90 as we were yesterday, SLE would be in the 95-98 range. So it does seem a little off. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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