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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

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11 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Oh right.  The second half of July will be cold and wet. 🙂

 

 

4DECE2FF-8B17-42F2-A100-918EC7C4112B.gif

A summer without huffing wildfire smoke will do you good. 😊

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10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

More so than Minneapolis?

Definitely... Minneapolis has never seen snow in June and it is extraordinarily rare in September.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

More so than Minneapolis?

Minneapolis doesn't normally see snow in May or September and averages 50" of snowfall compared to 91" in Bozeman. Not really any comparison.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yikes.

8E2FBB0C-1F56-438C-BC97-54AA6F53D814.png

Dislike! Although, the 12z models show a bit more NW flow and more 4CH suppression than earlier runs so maybe we'll be spared!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Strange pattern on the 12Z ECMWF... good for putting out the fires in Alaska though.   

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8599200.png

They're just entering their wet season up there so pretty on par.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

They're just entering their wet season up there so pretty on par.

True... but that is quite an anomalous trough up there.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... but that is quite an anomalous trough up there.  

Yeah, they were due.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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75 out here now...  not a cloud in the sky.

12Z EPS and control run look increasingly warm as we move through next week and beyond.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1657800000-1657800000-1659096000-10.gif

If this is the case, July will end up warmer than normal. I believe as of yesterday July's already running 0.2 warmer than normal. 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1657800000-1657800000-1659096000-10.gif

I thought it was going to get cooler after the 20th!? End of July is sure looking like it wants to torch right now!😈

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I thought it was going to get cooler after the 20th!? End of July is sure looking like it wants to torch right now!😈

Phil's timing might be off.     Or maybe the models are wrong.

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Dislike! Although, the 12z models show a bit more NW flow and more 4CH suppression than earlier runs so maybe we'll be spared!

Yeah and I think that map is relative too.

IE: No “excessive heat” risk in Phoenix, when it’s obviously gonna be hot as hell there like always.

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51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1657800000-1657800000-1659096000-10.gif

I suspect there’ll be pretty substantial changes in the coming days. The MJO re-emerging over the IO isn’t a warm west signal. Guidance often over-emphasizes the westward extent of the 4CH in such cases, producing a warm result.

Seen this countless times before.

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This is what the EPS weeklies from 1 month ago were projecting for today, versus what actually happened. Cringe.

Have to account for known systemic biases (such as the overheating of the western high terrain) otherwise the information is useless for you.

 

E91FF7C1-2814-45DF-A2CB-3B7C7D157888.gif

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EPS weeklies initialized on 6/30 for 7/14-7/21 (upcoming week) versus the current run. Same error, easy to spot.

A03BC4FC-A11B-41B4-BF4F-7228182DD528.gif

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Idk maybe Phil’s prediction will be right but me personally I don’t feel like late July is gonna be cool. Would love to be wrong tho. 

Well “cool” is subjective, lol.

It’s true the more favorable tropical forcing (for a cool pattern ) has been pushed back by ~ 4-5 days. For awhile it looked like 7/20 but now it’s more like 7/25, verbatim.

A17168D2-95E7-485F-9D4E-932B8F6C6A7B.png

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well “cool” is subjective, lol.

It’s true the more favorable tropical forcing (for a cool pattern ) has been pushed back by ~ 4-5 days. For awhile it looked like 7/20 but now it’s more like 7/25, verbatim.

A17168D2-95E7-485F-9D4E-932B8F6C6A7B.png

Is the trade wind burst still going strong and will it continue?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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79 out here and only 72 at SEA.   Its usually warmer out here on weak onshore flow summer days.   This was the prevalent set up for most of July and August last year.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Severe clear and upper 70s. I've already stocked the house with supplies in anticipation of this upcoming trade burst.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Severe clear and upper 70s. I've already stocked the house with supplies in anticipation of this upcoming trade burst.

Looks like most of Seattle is warmer than SEA right now.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looks like most of Seattle is warmer than SEA right now.

 

Not uncommon when there are weak westerlies. KSEA is often in the crossfire of the Des Moines notch Sound breeze during days like this.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is the trade wind burst still going strong and will it continue?  

Yes, this is actually the strongest trade burst ever recorded for this time of year.

Another big burst seems likely in early/mid August, too. I firmly believe we have a strong La Niña on the way this winter. Or at the very least a high end moderate.

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Just now, Phil said:

Yes, this is actually the strongest trade burst ever recorded for this time of year.

Another big burst seems likely in early/mid August, too. I firmly believe we have a strong La Niña on the way this winter. Or at the very least a high end moderate.

I am just going to trust you on this one.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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