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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I mean was anyone really expecting late July to be cool besides Phil? It’s almost always the warmest time of year. Pretty much a best case scenario nowdays seems to be an average or slightly warmer than normal July and august by 1991-2020 averages. I thought this year might be the year we actually have a normal summer but that looks unlikely for July atleast. August hasn’t been cool in 20 years and I bet it won’t be this year either. 

Also usually the peak in lightning activity in the PNW. Especially early August. 

Hard to have good setups for t'storms when temps are barely 70 or below in the summer.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I mean was anyone really expecting late July to be cool besides Phil? It’s almost always the warmest time of year. Pretty much a best case scenario nowdays seems to be an average or slightly warmer than normal July and august by 1991-2020 averages. I thought this year might be the year we actually have a normal summer but that looks unlikely for July atleast. August hasn’t been cool in 20 years and I bet it won’t be this year either. 

Well, I originally thought the first half of July would be warm, with a flip ~ 7/20.

But guidance did rush the return to E-Hem tropical forcing. So that change happens ~ 7/25 now, maybe a bit later. So that would skew the odds significantly warm, all else being equal.

But there’s nothing out there right now to suggest August will be anomalously warm. People talk about “persistence forecasting” but that persistence happens for reasons that can be pinpointed. It’s not purely random.

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Climate change is a reason. It’s just no longer possible to have a cool august by historical standards. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I mean was anyone really expecting late July to be cool besides Phil? It’s almost always the warmest time of year. Pretty much a best case scenario nowdays seems to be an average or slightly warmer than normal July and august by 1991-2020 averages. I thought this year might be the year we actually have a normal summer but that looks unlikely for July atleast. August hasn’t been cool in 20 years and I bet it won’t be this year either. 

Any time of year can be cool relative to normal.   Even the warmest time of the year statistically.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m also sure we will manage a couple cloudy cool weekends through the summer and hear tons of complaints despite almost every day being overwhelmingly nice and warmer than normal 😉

A couple?   Going back to Memorial Day weekend... there has only been one totally sunny weekend out of 8.    People notice the weather on the weekends.   Sorry.  

Hopefully next weekend will be sunny and we can get on run through Labor Day.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Time to start planting California species.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Time to start planting California species.

This one family has bought severa of the older run down homes in the neighborhood the last 12-18 months. They’ve planted several palm trees in each yard. I hate it. Looks awful and out of place. But the other ones that have been planted for a few years have been thriving. 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

If this year can’t do it for a cool summer, given the state of ENSO and the PDO, we probably never will.

It's pretty mind blowing how much our summers have warmed. I was fully expecting this one to be cool (at least by recent standards) but it looks very unlikely to finish below even the roided 1991-2020 averages at this point, at least for the Willamette Valley. It's like we've hit a tipping point where our midsummer weather is now mostly driven by an expanded four corners high.

Downtown Portland once had an average high of 69.1 in August! Even getting a sub 80 average high for that month seems like a huge longshot now.

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2 hours ago, T-Town said:

Actually looks a little convective here. 

B697D8D9-E457-4006-B322-40E57A694C1F.jpeg

It technically is, but only for a couple thousand feet or so ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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12 minutes ago, James Jones said:

It's pretty mind blowing how much our summers have warmed. I was fully expecting this one to be cool (at least by recent standards) but it looks very unlikely to finish below even the roided 1991-2020 averages at this point, at least for the Willamette Valley. It's like we've hit a tipping point where our midsummer weather is now mostly driven by an expanded four corners high.

Downtown Portland once had an average high of 69.1 in August! Even getting a sub 80 average high for that month seems like a huge longshot now.

Summers are front loaded seemingly too. June and July have been the hottest parts of the season on the east sides.

There have surprisingly been lots of average or marginally warm Augusts at KLMT, even following record territory Julys. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Right before there's going to be a t'storm and you hear someone starting their lawn mower.. 

80 and overcast. ;)

My neighbor does this every time and just commits to it. I've seen him on the riding lawn mower in a literal severe warned storm with rain pounding down, winds gusting to 60+mph, lightening everywhere and so dark that he needed the mower lights on in the middle of the afternoon...🤦‍♀️

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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We are watching global warming in real time. What else is there to say.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

🤮

976B7656-5EC7-4BBB-9C46-4B1E86FD22A2.png

The hell even is the point of that red line anymore.... That ensemble mean is basically following the real one lmao

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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13 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Summers are front loaded seemingly too. June and July have been the hottest parts of the season on the east sides.

There have surprisingly been lots of average or marginally warm Augusts at KLMT, even following record territory Julys. 

Hmm, I'm not sure that's true. August has seen comparable anomalies on both sides of the mountains in recent years for the most part. 

September has largely been reasonable though. Really haven't seen that month torch since 2014.

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

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Over 3000 deaths from the European heat wave now.

But at least it wasn’t raining. THAT would’ve been tragic. 

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21 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Hmm, I'm not sure that's true. August has seen comparable anomalies on both sides of the mountains in recent years for the most part. 

September has largely been reasonable though. Really haven't seen that month torch since 2014.

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

August has featured some good heat when I lived there but its like the 2nd halfs usually cool off and negate all those large anomalies. Maybe its just KLMT doing that I dunno. But I posted a while back that it has topped around +2.7 degrees (Mean from normal) whereas I had 3 Julys around +5 degrees in as little as 9 years time. The old July monthly record was broken twice. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Great winter in my location! I had 18" of snow!

I would have to put 16-17 on the top of my list. Best winter I've ever experienced. There were numerous snow/ice events, 7 in total I think, so many I lost count. And we can't forget about Jan. 10-11 not only for how much snow fell but also for the duration as the snow stuck around for a while giving us frigid low temperatures. I didn't sleep much that winter with all the model riding! ❄🥶

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Check out London. Unprecedented heat for them...

 

Cue the soliloquy from Tim about how the Earth was once molten rock and how alligators used to live in the arctic, which means everything is fine. 

Given the ridiculous heatwaves we're seeing around the midlatitudes it feels like it's only a matter of time before we see 110 degree heat again. If we're lucky maybe before the decade is even out!

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Welp, looks like we will be rolling through the QBs and receivers the next few weeks...

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Cue the soliloquy from Tim about how the Earth was once molten rock and how alligators used to live in the arctic, which means everything is fine. 

Given the ridiculous heatwaves we're seeing around the midlatitudes it feels like it's only a matter of time before we see 110 degree heat again. If we're lucky maybe before the decade is even out!

I agree with this take on the crazy heat around the northern hemisphere.   It's probably coming again for us too.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Cue the soliloquy from Tim about how the Earth was once molten rock and how alligators used to live in the arctic, which means everything is fine. 

Given the ridiculous heatwaves we're seeing around the midlatitudes it feels like it's only a matter of time before we see 110 degree heat again. If we're lucky maybe before the decade is even out!

Or by the end of July...😬

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Back when I saw my first one in 2016 and didn't know what they were until googling, I thought they resembled beavers. Just without the huge front teeth.

They're groundhogs technically but a lot of people don't know that. ;)

I thought as well, that they were some kind of beaver. Fun fact, they start their hibernation around the end of July and don't re-emerge until the following Feb/Mar. Did you see a lot of them around K-Falls?

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35 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Some folks here with a tendency to freak out the most seem to have a difficult time understanding that significant 500mb troughing in July/August just means historically average to slightly warmer than average weather now for the mid latitudes.

Flat 500mb patterns mean moderate torching.

And actual 500mb ridging means near record to all time record shattering heat.

Be careful what you root endlessly for....

Yeah but them clouds are a serious problem 

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Enjoying the pleasant 78F weather with sunshine right now. Not looking forward to the dog days furnace turning on soon...

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I thought as well, that they were some kind of beaver. Fun fact, they start their hibernation around the end of July and don't re-emerge until the following Feb/Mar. Did you see a lot of them around K-Falls?

A few, and it was pretty rare to see one. I bet towards Upper Klamath Lake you'd see more. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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