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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

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  1. 1. More original name title?

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2 hours ago, James Jones said:

'03-'04 was my favorite winter ever, but from an objective standpoint '16-'17 is probably the best of my lifetime. Multiple snow events, consistently cold throughout including the first truly cold January in decades, and of course the heavy thundersnow event followed by a week of subfreezing highs. 

'03-'04 was magical though. It had been 6 years at that point since we had a major snow event, which as a 12 year old weenie might has well have been forever. 

Yeah, 2003-04 holds a special place in my heart as well. Lots of great memories during that period of my life in general, but as you said, it was such a departure from the absolute weenie hell of 1999-2003, it made it so much sweeter.

Renewed hope.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, 2003-04 holds a special place in my heart as well. Lots of great memories during that period of my life in general, but as you said, it was such a departure from the absolute weenie hell of 1999-2003, it made it so much sweeter.

Renewed hope.

Actually I think Jan 1999 through the winter of 2005-06 was the absolute worst on record for us.  2003-04 was the only break.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty interesting.  We had a brief shower come through and now clearing from the north.  Almost like a Candian cold front in the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

As of today we’re -0.7 for the month. Euro looks pretty hot later in the month though seems pretty likely we will end above average though. 

We'll see.  It seems the models have had a warm tendency for week 2 as of late.  Anyway...the ECMWF only shows a three day warm spell.  It ends with a trough and onshore flow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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BTW...Is Larry Cosgrove still calling for a Nino?  If so it's looking like a bust for him.  Nino 3.4 is almost down to -0.5 again.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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On the plus side, it looks like most guidance shows relief from the torching come Friday. A fairly stout marine push Thursday night with westerlies persisting into the following day. Highs in the low-mid 70s in the Sound. Not to dissimilar to just this Saturday, perhaps a bit warmer.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, 2003-04 holds a special place in my heart as well. Lots of great memories during that period of my life in general, but as you said, it was such a departure from the absolute weenie hell of 1999-2003, it made it so much sweeter.

Renewed hope.

Second snowiest winter in the 21st century for Portland, after 08/09. 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

On the plus side, it looks like most guidance shows relief from the torching come Friday. A fairly stout marine push Thursday night with westerlies persisting into the following day. Highs in the low-mid 70s in the Sound. Not to dissimilar to just this Saturday, perhaps a bit warmer.

What torching?

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51F under a starry sky. Beautiful night.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I got 10" with the Jan 10-11 snowstorm. I live in the SW part of Gresham with some elevation so was able to get in on some of the higher totals. Then not much melting for the next several days which made the event even more special. 

Didn't the Gresham area also do well the next winter? I did okay but not that great, with 5.5" that winter. Same with 2018/19 when I had about 4". At least my area in the West Metro hasn't done as bad as places like Beaverton/Tigard. Those areas seem to be screwed a lot.

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Surprise drizzle last night! Quite damp out there.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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KSEA recorded 0.02" of rain overnight. Still cloudy and damp now but it won't last long, with heights rapidly rising throughout the day and large scale descent drying out the column. Already seeing spotty drizzle disappear on radar.

Should be clearing up by noon, at the latest. Highs should remain on the cool side of normal, in the low 70s, amidst afternoon sun.

This week moderate ridging takes over with weak westerly flow persisting in the low levels. Expect sharp diurnal temperature swings with lows in the 40s and 50s, and highs on either side of 80F. Evening and overnight marine pushes with varying degrees of morning cloudcover should be on the table as well (the Euro is particularly agressive on this front.)

Looking ahead into this upcoming weekend, a minor cooldown Friday looks to potentially drop highs down to the low to mid 70s again alongside heavier morning cloudcover. After which models diverge, some firing up another ridge, while others maintaining a low level cool pattern with only minor upper level moderation.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA recorded 0.02" of rain overnight. Still cloudy and damp now but it won't last long, with heights rapidly rising throughout the day and large scale descent drying out the column. Already seeing spotty drizzle disappear on radar.

Should be clearing up by noon, at the latest. Highs should remain on the cool side of normal, in the low 70s, amidst afternoon sun.

This week moderate ridging takes over with weak westerly flow persisting in the low levels. Expect sharp diurnal temperature swings with lows in the 40s and 50s, and highs on either side of 80F. Evening and overnight marine pushes with varying degrees of morning cloudcover should be on the table as well (the Euro is particularly agressive on this front.)

Looking ahead into this upcoming weekend, a minor cooldown Friday looks to potentially drop highs down to the low to mid 70s again alongside heavier morning cloudcover. After which models diverge, some firing up another ridge, while others maintaining a low level cool pattern with only minor upper level moderation.

Practicing your AFDs?

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Practicing your AFDs?

Yeah he is giving actual awesome forecast information…Me on the other hand just came by to complain that I put my patio furniture back out prematurely last evening. 
Wet deck and patio furniture! 

7888E976-E3BF-4193-8618-820E56B09715.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Drizzly breezy cool fall morning out there this morning.  Actually had to put a coat on to take the puppy out for a walk.  Not complaining though, sounds like the heat will be back on tomorrow.

 

Currently 56

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ECMWF shows it will take until 3 or 4 p.m. to really clear in the Seattle area.

This little ULL resulted in generally cloudy conditions in the Seattle area for most of 3 days while delivering a whopping .02 of rain at SEA.    North and west of Seattle it will end up being 4 days since it was cloudy (and drizzly in places) in that direction on Friday as well.     Meanwhile... south of Portland all they got was partly cloudy skies on Saturday.     Big difference in term of sunshine.    There has been very little sun in Seattle since Friday afternoon.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows it will take until 3 or 4 p.m. to really clear in the Seattle area.

This little ULL resulted in generally cloudy conditions in the Seattle area for most of 3 days while delivering a whopping .02 of rain at SEA.    North and west of Seattle it will end up being 4 days since it was cloudy (and drizzly in places) in that direction on Friday as well.     Meanwhile... south of Portland all they got was partly cloudy skies on Saturday.     Big difference in term of sunshine.    There has been very little sun in Seattle since Friday afternoon.  

 

What about North Bend?

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The GFS is going for a high near 80 for SEA today. 🤣

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a relatively cool 72/56 day yesterday. Nice to have some days in the 70s before we enter the furnace in the long term.

I don't think it will get that bad.  Probably a couple of 5 day runs of warmth or so.  A late summer heat blast can't be ruled out with a Nina, but this being a multi year event it's less likely.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS is going for a high near 80 for SEA today. 🤣

Even the ECMWF shows 75 with mid-afternoon clearing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 hours ago, Phil said:

Portugal hitting 117°F is next level insane.

1,027 deaths in Portugal and Spain alone. These are direct heat related deaths, not excess mortality.

Kind of this year's version of what happened here last year.  No doubt the atmosphere is in a crazy perturbed state right now with this being answered by extreme low mins in other parts of the world.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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46 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Drizzly breezy cool fall morning out there this morning.  Actually had to put a coat on to take the puppy out for a walk.  Not complaining though, sounds like the heat will be back on tomorrow.

 

Currently 56

Should be crisp tonight though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even the ECMWF shows 75 with mid-afternoon clearing.

This is one where my money is on the ECMWF.  80 would be nearly impossible with the initial conditions today.  We also have much colder local SST conditions developing now which will make NW breezes chillier.

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is one where my money is on the ECMWF.  80 would be nearly impossible with the initial conditions today.  We also have much colder local SST conditions developing now which will make NW breezes chillier.

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

I agree with the initial conditions part for today.

But the water off the coast is not cold.    And probably won't make much of a difference.   

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Jginmartini coal creek got the best of me today where you at?? 

DB41465B-6C98-4CA9-8A7C-DC9C1D0555C4.jpeg

I’ve been on a hiking kick as of late but 5 days of golf with a group in Bend Or. upcoming in August! Also putting together my trip for down south to AZ for the storms and to see my friends.  Yesterdays storms looked pretty brutal down there.  Sedona surrounding hills on fire too :( 
Photos from last night

 

04917200-FD10-4E11-9B3A-FA42D99E5E1B.png

33BDDFC7-0763-4DA7-B14F-4244C0110133.png

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6 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

What torching?

Currently 56 and dripping wet from last nights showers.  Not that torchy.  Kinda nice start to the morning but some sun would be nice later.

 

I am not gonna b*tch about the coolish weather so far. I am enjoying it.  Covid prompted lockdowns and then a subsequent business closure drove an early retirement for me (57), so I am mostly outdoors during the day now.  The weather has been great.  I am currently refurbishing an old sailing yacht (not mine, side job) in Eagle Harbor on the island.  Best summer of my adult life so far.

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