TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: For now I'm going to pretend the GFS is onto something. 12Z GFS shows 99 degrees in Seattle next week. Won't happen but if that is your dream run then its a good sign for some warm weather at least. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Can I get some puke emojis for the 12z ECMWF? 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: You seem to be good at that This summer has been fine so far. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Hot team, hot weather. What could be better??? 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GFS shows 99 degrees in Seattle next week. Won't happen but if that is your dream run then its a good sign for some warm weather at least. I was looking at the stuff later on. Besides 99 means about 92. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 23 minutes ago, Phil said: Traps a wavenumber 6-8 pattern like last June. But the way it gets there is so different I continue to believe it’s wrong. Along with the majority of guidance. Not a single analog w/ CCKW departing the EPAC & E-Hem low pass that evolves into a heatwave pattern there. At least going back to the 1970s. There are a few cases with a strong ridge just offshore but no bonafide heatwaves. And every analogous case except one flipped cool immediately thereafter. Could easily be a case of brief heat followed by retrogression. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I was looking at the stuff later on. Besides 99 means about 92. Of course. And that is your dream run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 57F and cloudy/misty at 1 p.m. in mid July. Not something you see all the time although we'll probably pop up into the mid 60s by the end of the day. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 I think Jesse has lost it. Not sure how he thinks this summer has been terrible so far. Granted I didn't like some of June, but heat wise it's been quite good so far. 1 1 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 12z EPS has -PNA, weak NW trough, and 850s near normal for early August. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Walking around Poulsbo today... beautiful here. 9 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Noone said anything about a dream run and Jesse hasn't been complaining about this summer. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Stellar day! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: My guess is that a more active storm track (-ENSO) combined with a roided 4CH (natural variability/agw/whatever) allows for maintained vorticity and moisture advection over the inland PNW. Eastern WA through NW WY is in that sweet spot. probably, cause we seem to be right on the periphery of that where I sit just west of the ID border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 hours ago, FroYoBro said: It actually feels a little chilly with shorts and a t-shirt still at 11am. I understand people complaining about warm summers, but this will be the third cloudy/cool day in a row down here. Pretty good. Most comfortable summer we have had in a while down here. I’ve enjoyed it so far. Past the halfway point and obviously it’s different up here but only 3 hot days so far this year. Of course the euro at face value is probably 3-4 +90 days here later this month which sucks but just gotta enjoy the comfy weather like today while it’s here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Poor Andrew. 1 3 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: Going to be a hefty La Niña this winter. Westward moving +OLR/-VP200 low pass with descending +QBO and inclining solar cycle is the best possible setup to strengthen La Niña. The CFS doesn’t even simulate a QBO. It’s such a dinosaur. Larry Cosgrove continues to be against it for some reason.I guess my question is.Is he just being different just to be different or is he really seeing something that many do not.Strange that a great old school promet like Larry would be this far off the mark seeing wise 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Sunset last night was pretty good. Overcast and cloudy day today so far. Currently 62F degrees with a projected high of 70F. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: Stellar day! Much too cold. We have hit the 60 mark though so it’s a start! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said: Noone said anything about a dream run and Jesse hasn't been complaining about this summer. I was just wondering why he posted a laugh emoji when I said this summer has been fine from a heat perspective. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, MossMan said: Much too cold. We have hit the 60 mark though so it’s a start! This pattern has really been cold for your area. That cold blast coming down the strait every day. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 67 and partly cloudy very nice day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 74 and Partly Cloudy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherfan2012 said: Larry Cosgrove continues to be against it for some reason.I guess my question is.Is he just being different just to be different or is he really seeing something that many do not.Strange that a great old school promet like Larry would be this far off the mark seeing wise No way he is going to be right IMO. There is absolutely no historical precedent for a Nino to come out of thin air this late. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 108 now. 45 days since it last rained at DFW. 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: 67 and partly cloudy very nice day. Give today to the ECMWF. The 12z GFS was spitting out an absurd 80. There is no way it would have gotten that warm regardless. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: 108 now. 45 days since it last rained at DFW. Seems extremely dry for there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Phil said: Traps a wavenumber 6-8 pattern like last June. But the way it gets there is so different I continue to believe it’s wrong. Along with the majority of guidance. Not a single analog w/ CCKW departing the EPAC & E-Hem low pass that evolves into a heatwave pattern there. At least going back to the 1970s. There are a few cases with a strong ridge just offshore but no bonafide heatwaves. And every analogous case except one flipped cool immediately thereafter. It's almost as if, brace yourself, our summer climate has fundamentally changed in recent years. Torching is inevetable. Analogs don't work anymore. 2 1 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 109 now 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: No way he is going to be right IMO. There is absolutely no historical precedent for a Nino to come out of thin air this late. I remembered back in the day Jim when Dave Tolleris and Larry Cosgrove got into it all the time those two could never agree on much of anything.I tend to agree with you but I still find it interesting that Cosgrove sees it so differently wish And I'm sure many knew what exackly it is that he seeing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Trust me, I hope to god I am wrong, and that Phil's Kold August of the Century© verifies brilliantly. But intuition and recent summer climo have proved different. In recent years -ENSO would mean a genuinely chilly summer. Now it doesn't matter... It feels like there are feedback loops present now that weren't there before which precede -ENSO climo and promote incessant ridging, no matter what. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Give today to the ECMWF. The 12z GFS was spitting out an absurd 80. There is no way it would have gotten that warm regardless. If the day starts out socked in during the morning... the GFS will usually be wrong during the summer. It overestimates mixing. If the day starts out sunny... the GFS will usually be closer than the ECMWF which seems to assume the water of the Puget Sound is much colder than reality. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Anyways, it's running much cooler than I expected today. Clouds are much more stubborn. Sometimes ridging aloft can prevent sufficient mixing for marine layer erosion. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, administrator said: Nice day. I know that place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It's almost as if, brace yourself, our summer climate has fundamentally changed in recent years. Torching is inevetable. Analogs don't work anymore. You’d have to show that the pattern would somehow respond differently now to the same stimuli than it did even a few years ago. I don’t see any reason that would be the case. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Oh death. 1 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 108 now. 45 days since it last rained at DFW. Now that’s Tim weather. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 18, 2022 Report Share Posted July 18, 2022 Full sun and 69 here right now. Incredibly pleasant day. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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