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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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44 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Anyways, it's running much cooler than I expected today. Clouds are much more stubborn. Sometimes ridging aloft can prevent sufficient mixing for marine layer erosion.

ECMWF has insisted for several days that the clearing would take place around 3 or 4 p.m. today in the Seattle area.   My son is going out with friends on the boat this evening and has been pestering for precise timing since about Friday.     He texted me at noon telling me it was not going to happen and I was wrong and I said it will be totally different by 4.    And it is.  😃

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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31 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’d have to show that the pattern would somehow respond differently now to the same stimuli than it did even a few years ago.

I don’t see any reason that would be the case.

For us I think it's nothing more than the 4CH has been more dominant in recent years.  I have a feeling that's a cyclical thing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For us I think it's nothing more than the 4CH has been more dominant in recent years.  I have a feeling that's a cyclical thing.

In that case, the drought erupting across the southern plains won’t help with the 4CH situation.

2019 was the last summer with a weak 4CH. Might need a niño to change things up again.

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has insisted for several days that the clearing would take place around 3 or 4 p.m. today in the Seattle area.   My son is going out with friends on the boat this evening and has been pestering for precise timing since about Friday.     He texted me at noon telling me it was not going to happen and I was wrong and I said it will be totally different by 4.    And it is.  😃

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It’s coming!
Oh and the In-Laws just arrived from Arizona to break in the brand new RV parking spot I added. Oh and I’m buying a new (18yr old) to me jetski later this week, that should seal the deal for a hot rest of the summer!! 

060C1B7E-9435-42AE-8DC0-7C16AEB3290D.jpeg

785EF1EB-0216-4C43-BA47-EEAF8E224A33.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Well... IBR Chris thinks we'll see 100-105 to close out June. He's riding the hideous 12z EPS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... IBR Chris thinks we'll see 100-105 to close out June. He's riding the hideous 12z EPS. 

That’s a gutsy call for 11 months out.

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July

  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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32 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Nice evening. 72F now.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has insisted for several days that the clearing would take place around 3 or 4 p.m. today in the Seattle area.   My son is going out with friends on the boat this evening and has been pestering for precise timing since about Friday.     He texted me at noon telling me it was not going to happen and I was wrong and I said it will be totally different by 4.    And it is.  😃

Conventionally I've found that timing is usually brought back by a bit, and mixing usually occurs earlier than forecast. Sometimes it goes the other way, like today and Saturday. Euro verified well indeed.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I was laying down by the pool in the 109 degree heat. Probably caused me to confuse June with July. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Some hot temperatures are starting to appear on Everett's long range forecasts.  Over a week out, but still, never like seeing that.  A few 80s. The PNW is a cool spot in a country that is hot.

Screen Shot 2022-07-18 at 6.03.01 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-18 at 6.05.50 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-18 at 6.06.14 PM.png

The northern PNW for sure. Comparing the northern and southern PNW is kind of like comparing northern and southern France. Particularly in the summer, they are basically two completely different regions.

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For those of you like me who enjoy sunny and cool weather in the summer, Victoria by the water would be tough to beat. It’s supposed to be highs in upper 60s to low 70s with full sun at our campsite on the Saanich Peninsula the remainder of the week.

For some reason marine layer formation seems difficult here. At home, we have the Chehalis Gap to thank for the low clouds, but what stops low clouds from forming on southern VI? Seems like they would just come in through the Strait since nothing is blocking them.

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2 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

For those of you like me who enjoy sunny and cool weather in the summer, Victoria by the water would be tough to beat. It’s supposed to be highs in upper 60s to low 70s with full sun at our campsite on the Saanich Peninsula the remainder of the week.

For some reason marine layer formation seems difficult here. At home, we have the Chehalis Gap to thank for the low clouds, but what stops low clouds from forming on southern VI? Seems like they would just come in through the Strait since nothing is blocking them.

The significant mountain ranges to the south and west probably have something to do with it.

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The significant mountain ranges to the south and west probably have something to do with it.

They are totally open from the West.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Incredible 72/54 day here today.  Tonight will be crisp with the clear skies.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Julio putting on a show in LA. 63 homers in the first two rounds and he’s onto the finals. Feels like a superstar’s coming out party.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

For those of you like me who enjoy sunny and cool weather in the summer, Victoria by the water would be tough to beat. It’s supposed to be highs in upper 60s to low 70s with full sun at our campsite on the Saanich Peninsula the remainder of the week.

For some reason marine layer formation seems difficult here. At home, we have the Chehalis Gap to thank for the low clouds, but what stops low clouds from forming on southern VI? Seems like they would just come in through the Strait since nothing is blocking them.

The south end of Vancouver Island gets extreme inversions due to how cold the Strait of Juan de Fuca is.  No low clouds needed to keep that going when within a few miles of the water.  It might the wind that prevents low clouds from forming as easily.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They are totally open from the West.

Yeah, that’s what I don’t get. Do marine layers travel SW to NE or something? Could see them being blocked by the Olympics in that case, but what about straight west?

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19 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

For those of you like me who enjoy sunny and cool weather in the summer, Victoria by the water would be tough to beat. It’s supposed to be highs in upper 60s to low 70s with full sun at our campsite on the Saanich Peninsula the remainder of the week.

For some reason marine layer formation seems difficult here. At home, we have the Chehalis Gap to thank for the low clouds, but what stops low clouds from forming on southern VI? Seems like they would just come in through the Strait since nothing is blocking them.

Poulsbo/Bainbridge is similar in terms of clearing out quickly even during troughing and staying pleasant.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nome setting long standing records with this mammoth trough, not even sitting in its center.

Not to sound like Bastardi but this is kind of an equal and opposite phenomena to the European heat wave right now. Fleeting, though, and I'm sure there will be plenty more unanswered all time record heat waves all across the globe to come...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nome setting long standing records with this mammoth trough, not even sitting in its center.

Not to sound like Bastardi but this is kind of an equal and opposite phenomena to the European heat wave right now. Fleeting, though, and I'm sure there will be plenty more unanswered all time record heat waves all across the globe to come...

I get the feeling we will hit 4 consecutive +90 days later this month…definitely atleast 3. 

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