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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I wouldn't take the Hillsboro snow numbers at face value. Their data set is choppy at best and full of missing and/or inaccurate snow data, particularly by the 1960s. A lot of the old COOP stations have been pretty terrible at recording snow, unfortunately.

Oh okay, that's unfortunate but makes sense. Some of them also have unclear location data, like the Portland Elk-Point station only is located in Elk Point from 1969-1972, while it's locked in Bethany from 1967-1969 and I don't know where it's located from 1957-58.

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3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Day 6 and 7 on this model shows no 100s in Seattle or Portland.  Not sure what is beyond that.  Day 7 also shows eastern Tennessee and and part of Virginia ceasing to exist.  ndfd_sfctmax6.conus.thumb.png.2dbd1d82f69089f5e580b6c8dd820c1d.pngndfd_sfctmax7.conus.thumb.png.d09d06ea4e552a54959bc4f853e00894.png

I was hoping we could avoid more 90s in Portland but that doesn't seem likely.

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36 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I'm getting worried. 

The 500mb progs don't match the ridiculous surface temp numbers the GFS is spitting out.  A lot of robust onshore flow days in there too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Doiinko said:

I was hoping we could avoid more 90s but that doesn't seem likely.

Sorry to see that.  If you don't like heat, Portland seems like it isn't the place to live anymore.  It seems like the heat moves further north over time. It's not good.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The 500mb progs don't match the ridiculous surface temp numbers the GFS is spitting out.  A lot of robust onshore flow days in there too.

You always know how to calm us alarmists down. ;D  I'm not sure what your track-record is on all this, but I accept the calming effect you have on these readings. :D 

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The GFS must be smoking the really good stuff tonight.  86 tomorrow?  Yeah right.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, NWbyNW said:

You always know how to calm us alarmists down. ;D  I'm not sure what your track-record is on all this, but I accept the calming effect you have on these readings. :D 

I think there will be some warm to modestly hot days mixed in over the next couple of weeks, but nothing that bad IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

There's those people who set their thermostat to 68 or lower during the summer, so I imagine mid 60s would be ideal outdoor weather for them. Imagine how much electricity that wastes in a hot climate.

Then there's some people who set their thermostats higher in the winter than the summer. Do they like to be inside in shorts and T-shirts during the winter and sweaters and jeans in the summer?

Finally there's this ridiculous advice:

 

Those temps are spot on for me.  If it's above 68 I don't sleep nearly as well as when its below.  We have our thermostat set to 64 during sleep hours at night in the winter.  For the summer, now that we have A/C, we run the A/C at 70, then shut it off when the outside temp=inside temp, then we turn it off and crank up the whole house fan.  I'm about to go to sleep, and the temp is 67 inside.  Perfect.

We except for at night, we pretty much keep the thermostat set to 70.

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3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Sorry to see that.  If you don't like heat, Portland seems like it isn't the place to live anymore.  It seems like the heat moves further north over time. It's not good.

It seems like Portland can hit 90 without even trying these days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS must be smoking the really good stuff tonight.  86 tomorrow?  Yeah right.

EPS show 78... which means around 81.  

Side note... even the EPS showed highs into the low 90s next week on the 12Z run.   It almost never shows temps that warm at that range.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS must be smoking the really good stuff tonight.  86 tomorrow?  Yeah right.

Pretty different from its ensemble mean at 500mb as well.

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One thing for sure is it's going to be VERY dry for the foreseeable future.  Massive surface high complex dominates the NE Pacific.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Pretty different from its ensemble mean at 500mb as well.

I just saw that.  Ridge axis remains well to our NW pretty consistently.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty different from its ensemble mean at 500mb as well.

The GEFS is obviously muted... but the warm signal is in the same spot as the operational run.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8966400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8966400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GEFS at day 10.  Onshore flow and very dry.

1659052800-0XXy3BNFWks.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Should be pushing 100 there early next week.  

There's a couple of days in there it could happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

GEFS at day 10.  Onshore flow and very dry.

1659052800-0XXy3BNFWks.png

And its probably going to be in the 90s with that weak onshore flow.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Shows a long stretch of 90s for Portland, and even 101 on one dayimage.thumb.png.a05e519037fefe74d00456891ce35cb7.png

Looks like a perfect temp up in my area! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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At this point the models hint at a PNA drop by early August.  The warmest stuff may peak this month.  I would almost be willing to pay for a cool August just because we haven't had one for 20 years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Operational GFS definitely warmer than its ensemble mean.

Also a HUGE outlier over the Plains.

E8F3A8C7-0DF2-47B0-8FB7-7E5DB5F554F4.gif

Could the GFS actually be wrong? 😮

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point the models hint at a PNA drop by early August.  The warmest stuff may peak this month.  I would almost be willing to pay for a cool August just because we haven't had one for 20 years.

In August 1968 looks like we pulled off 72/40 days and 84/41 days with no precip in my area. My area isn't that urbanized either, a pattern like that would be nice now. 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Could the GFS actually be wrong? 😮

00Z ECMWF shows 102 in Portland one week from tomorrow... with its cool bias.

GFS only shows a pedestrian 97 there that day.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF shows 102 in Portland one week from tomorrow... with its cool bias.

GFS only shows a pedestrian 97 there that day.   

If that verified we'd probably get closer to 105 or so. I thought we could manage to go this summer without an extreme heatwave but maybe not.

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2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Shows a long stretch of 90s for Portland, and even 101 on one dayimage.thumb.png.a05e519037fefe74d00456891ce35cb7.png

Watershed weekend at The Gorge near that 112. Please god no.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Anyone else craving winter?

The smell of woodsmoke, the soft pitter-patter of snowflakes hitting the ground as the landscape is bathed in a sea of white, the dull roar of the wind blowing through the trees.

Aahhhh, I need it.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Anyone else craving winter?

The smell of woodsmoke, the soft pitter-patter of snowflakes hitting the ground as the landscape is bathed in a sea of white, the dull roar of the wind blowing through the trees.

Aahhhh, I need it.

Would like to enjoy a few weeks of summer... otherwise the entire year would be basically the same here.    

Looks pretty decent for us... and I don't think it will get too hot next week.   Models will water it down.  

Screenshot_20220719-071239_Google.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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