Doinko Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I wouldn't take the Hillsboro snow numbers at face value. Their data set is choppy at best and full of missing and/or inaccurate snow data, particularly by the 1960s. A lot of the old COOP stations have been pretty terrible at recording snow, unfortunately. Oh okay, that's unfortunate but makes sense. Some of them also have unclear location data, like the Portland Elk-Point station only is located in Elk Point from 1969-1972, while it's locked in Bethany from 1967-1969 and I don't know where it's located from 1957-58. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 13 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Should be crisp tonight though. Oh I hope we get frost! 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Another GFS run showing 100 degrees next week. Crisp in a different way. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Lol goofus… Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Another GFS showing 100 degrees next week. Crisp in a different way. I'm getting worried. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Another GFS run showing 100 degrees next week. Crisp in a different way. Where is it showing 100F degrees at? Which metro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Another GFS run showing 100 degrees next week. Crisp in a different way. Shows a long stretch of 90s for Portland, and even 101 on one day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Looking like July is going to end with a scorching. Right on cue. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Day 6 and 7 on this model shows no 100s in Seattle or Portland. Not sure what is beyond that. Day 7 also shows eastern Tennessee and and part of Virginia ceasing to exist. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Day 6 and 7 on this model shows no 100s in Seattle or Portland. Not sure what is beyond that. Day 7 also shows eastern Tennessee and and part of Virginia ceasing to exist. I was hoping we could avoid more 90s in Portland but that doesn't seem likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 36 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: I'm getting worried. The 500mb progs don't match the ridiculous surface temp numbers the GFS is spitting out. A lot of robust onshore flow days in there too. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, Doiinko said: I was hoping we could avoid more 90s but that doesn't seem likely. Sorry to see that. If you don't like heat, Portland seems like it isn't the place to live anymore. It seems like the heat moves further north over time. It's not good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The 500mb progs don't match the ridiculous surface temp numbers the GFS is spitting out. A lot of robust onshore flow days in there too. You always know how to calm us alarmists down. ;D I'm not sure what your track-record is on all this, but I accept the calming effect you have on these readings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 The GFS must be smoking the really good stuff tonight. 86 tomorrow? Yeah right. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, NWbyNW said: You always know how to calm us alarmists down. ;D I'm not sure what your track-record is on all this, but I accept the calming effect you have on these readings. I think there will be some warm to modestly hot days mixed in over the next couple of weeks, but nothing that bad IMO. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said: There's those people who set their thermostat to 68 or lower during the summer, so I imagine mid 60s would be ideal outdoor weather for them. Imagine how much electricity that wastes in a hot climate. Then there's some people who set their thermostats higher in the winter than the summer. Do they like to be inside in shorts and T-shirts during the winter and sweaters and jeans in the summer? Finally there's this ridiculous advice: Those temps are spot on for me. If it's above 68 I don't sleep nearly as well as when its below. We have our thermostat set to 64 during sleep hours at night in the winter. For the summer, now that we have A/C, we run the A/C at 70, then shut it off when the outside temp=inside temp, then we turn it off and crank up the whole house fan. I'm about to go to sleep, and the temp is 67 inside. Perfect. We except for at night, we pretty much keep the thermostat set to 70. 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Sorry to see that. If you don't like heat, Portland seems like it isn't the place to live anymore. It seems like the heat moves further north over time. It's not good. It seems like Portland can hit 90 without even trying these days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The GFS must be smoking the really good stuff tonight. 86 tomorrow? Yeah right. EPS show 78... which means around 81. Side note... even the EPS showed highs into the low 90s next week on the 12Z run. It almost never shows temps that warm at that range. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Sorry to see that. If you don't like heat, Portland seems like it isn't the place to live anymore. It seems like the heat moves further north over time. It's not good. PDX is turning into Phoenix 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The GFS must be smoking the really good stuff tonight. 86 tomorrow? Yeah right. Pretty different from its ensemble mean at 500mb as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 One thing for sure is it's going to be VERY dry for the foreseeable future. Massive surface high complex dominates the NE Pacific. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: Pretty different from its ensemble mean at 500mb as well. I just saw that. Ridge axis remains well to our NW pretty consistently. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Pretty different from its ensemble mean at 500mb as well. The GEFS is obviously muted... but the warm signal is in the same spot as the operational run. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It seems like Portland can hit 90 without even trying these days. Should be pushing 100 there early next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 GEFS at day 10. Onshore flow and very dry. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Should be pushing 100 there early next week. There's a couple of days in there it could happen. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Operational GFS definitely warmer than its ensemble mean. Also a HUGE outlier over the Plains. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: GEFS at day 10. Onshore flow and very dry. And its probably going to be in the 90s with that weak onshore flow. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Shows a long stretch of 90s for Portland, and even 101 on one day Looks like a perfect temp up in my area! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 At this point the models hint at a PNA drop by early August. The warmest stuff may peak this month. I would almost be willing to pay for a cool August just because we haven't had one for 20 years. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Operational GFS definitely warmer than its ensemble mean. Also a HUGE outlier over the Plains. Could the GFS actually be wrong? 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: At this point the models hint at a PNA drop by early August. The warmest stuff may peak this month. I would almost be willing to pay for a cool August just because we haven't had one for 20 years. In August 1968 looks like we pulled off 72/40 days and 84/41 days with no precip in my area. My area isn't that urbanized either, a pattern like that would be nice now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Could the GFS actually be wrong? 00Z ECMWF shows 102 in Portland one week from tomorrow... with its cool bias. GFS only shows a pedestrian 97 there that day. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z ECMWF shows 102 in Portland one week from tomorrow... with its cool bias. GFS only shows a pedestrian 97 there that day. If that verified we'd probably get closer to 105 or so. I thought we could manage to go this summer without an extreme heatwave but maybe not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 From a statistical standpoint wouldn’t surprise me if it ended up being close to the July 2006 heatwave. I know Jim’s trying to downplay it but it’s looking pretty hot. Factoring in the cool bias on the euro that’s 3 +90s showing up on tonight’s run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Doiinko said: Shows a long stretch of 90s for Portland, and even 101 on one day Watershed weekend at The Gorge near that 112. Please god no. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 If we're looking for a positive next week during our heat, the SW is going to enter a very active phase of the monsoon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 7 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said: PDX is turning into Phoenix It has a long way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Anyone else craving winter? The smell of woodsmoke, the soft pitter-patter of snowflakes hitting the ground as the landscape is bathed in a sea of white, the dull roar of the wind blowing through the trees. Aahhhh, I need it. 4 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Phil said: Anyone else craving winter? The smell of woodsmoke, the soft pitter-patter of snowflakes hitting the ground as the landscape is bathed in a sea of white, the dull roar of the wind blowing through the trees. Aahhhh, I need it. Would like to enjoy a few weeks of summer... otherwise the entire year would be basically the same here. Looks pretty decent for us... and I don't think it will get too hot next week. Models will water it down. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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