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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Cold second half of July still on the table?

Anything is possible!

Unfortunately guidance has been pushing back the switch up in the tropics. Want to see that move up in timing before making definitive predictions now.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A 2021 repeat would be preferable for you to a 1954 repeat though. Okay to admit it. 

July and August 2021 were decent enough up here.    Late June 2021 was my least favorite weather event in my life.   That is truth... don't care if you believe it or not.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's hard for me to believe you because I hate heat and I don't even think 3 super hot days necessarily "ruin" summer. 

It ruins summer in the sense that everything burns up and looks terrible.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

July and August 2021 were decent enough up here.    Late June 2021 was my least favorite weather event in my life.   That is truth... don't care if you believe it or not.  

Not saying you enjoyed that week per se, but given the amount of energy you put in annually towards wishing away a 1954 type summer that never comes, I do find it pretty hard to believe that your levels of disgust really even out. 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

It ruins summer in the sense that everything burns up and looks terrible.  

Okay, that is kind of what happens down here in the summer every year, even back in the 90s when things were closer to the historical norm. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Least favorite weather events of my life. 

Winter 2014-15

Winter 2004-05

Winter 2002-03

Winter 1991-92

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay, that is kind of what happens down here in the summer every year, even back in the 90s when things were closer to the historical norm. 

The scorching event last June was unlike anything I have ever witnessed here.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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While operational Euro is an outlier in the EPS mean, it’s still a f**king ugly look. Lots of very hot members. Still a large cluster of CMC-like solutions, though.

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The scorching event last June was unlike anything I have ever witnessed here.

I have been surprised by how little lasting damage it did in this area (And I include the valley floor between here and Salem in that.). I think the previous hot summers had already gotten much of the more sensitive vegetation.  

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Cloud said:

Looks like the Euro is gonna have quite a few people on edge with this one. 

If it was the GFS I’d laugh it off. Always take the Euro seriously, though. Can’t count how many times it has humiliated all of the other guidance.

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The last 4 winters in my location have had at least one top tier major winter weather event, that has been an amazing stretch which out performs any other multi year in a row for great winters in my lifetime…So I say let’s just keep doing what we are doing to bring about a #5 in a row major winter event! If that means heatwaves in the summer then let’s do it!! C’MON!!!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The last 4 winters in my location have had at least one top tier major winter weather event, that has been an amazing stretch which out performs any other multi year in a row for great winters in my lifetime…So I say let’s just keep doing what we are doing to bring about a #5 in a row major winter event! If that means heatwaves in the summer then let’s do it!! C’MON!!!

I would rate this as half true...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Not saying you enjoyed that week per se, but given the amount of energy you put in annually towards wishing away a 1954 type summer that never comes, I do find it pretty hard to believe that your levels of disgust really even out. 

There is a time factor.   Energy spent over months.    Late June 2021 was relatively quick and pure evil in my opinion.  If you are asking me about a 1954 summer or a summer full of late June 2021?    Summer of 1954 all the way.   Not even a question.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interestingly, the EPS members with the hottest outcomes tend to break down the the ridge the fastest, with a good number of troughy solutions by D12, where-as the more muted members kind of just hang the pattern there.

Not sure why that would be.

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3 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Only had half of that in the West Metro sadly. Beaverton/Tigard had even less I think. Surprisingly according to the NWS public information statements Beaverton was one of the snowiest places with the big storm in December 2008 (16"), which I wouldn't have guessed.

Some parts of Western Washington county out near the Coast Range had huge snow totals from what I remember. Even more so than parts of the east side. 

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Well I was hoping to escape the Plains heat when I head on my business trip to Seattle next week but looks like I might not be so lucky. No comfy 70s and 80s for me, just a continuation of the same weather I've been experiencing already. Lame.

Can you still go if you have COVID?

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I would trade a 112 degree high at SLE for a cool August. But we know it doesn't work that way. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As I frequently explain to IBR Chris. It's not really an extreme or interesting if it happens 2-3 times a year. If we had "historic" arctic outbreaks 2-3 times every winter at some point they would become less exciting. 

That’s fair.

But the 2-3 times a season analysis is pretty hyperbolic from a protracted standpoint. By a slightly subjective analysis we’ve seen five “historic” heat events in the last 20 years. Yes, two were in the last 13 months and in mid range worry mode about a third, but that’s a pretty short term test for establishing long term frequency. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There is a time factor.   Energy spent over months.    Late June 2021 was relatively quick and pure evil in my opinion.  If you are asking me about a 1954 summer or a summer full of late June 2021?    Summer of 1954 all the way.   Not even a question.  

Nah, just actual full summer of 2021 (including having to relive late June) versus actual full summer of 1954 (having to live some showery 65 degree days). I think you would definitely still prefer 2021, even if you hated those 3 days. 

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25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There hasn't been anything really approaching last June from a winter weather perspective since probably January 1950. So it's not even remotely equitable. 

Nothing in modern recorded history has approached last June. It rewrote the book and truly changed our climate identity. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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There are a couple of outrageous EPS members, as in literally a repeat of June 2021. Let’s hope those are wrong. 😬 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hint of a retrogression signal on the 12z EPS.

Hopefully we can build on this.

D8EB6E5E-72C8-4ABC-95CA-0AA450F1F3D0.gif

A frigid August to remember? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nothing in modern recorded history has approached last June. It rewrote the book and truly changed our climate identity. 

Right, so I'm not sure that some decadal cold in the NW part of the region last winter is as much of a balancing act as your post seemed to imply.

The extremes are, have been, and will continue to be overwhelmingly on one side of the spectrum. It is what it is. And with that, the goalposts will continue to move and our sense of what even constitutes "extreme" will continue to be skewed ever  upwards. 

Edited by BLI snowman
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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nothing in modern recorded history has approached last June. It rewrote the book and truly changed our climate identity. 

The setup is somewhat different but a July 2009 type of outcome seems like a decent bet. Long duration heat event with a few days in the mid 100s.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Right, so I'm not sure that some decadal cold in the NW part of the region last winter is as much of a balancing act as your post seemed to imply.

The extremes are, have been, and will continue to be overwhelmingly on one side of the spectrum. It is what it is. And with that, the goalposts will continue to move and our sense of what even constitutes "extreme" will continue to be skewed ever  upwards. 

Sure, everything is relative. We’re living in a warming world and that isn’t likely to change in the long term.

But if Omak can score a 2/-2 day in the same month they hit the mid 70’s, I’ll unapologetically find that quite interesting and enjoyable.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, James Jones said:

The setup is somewhat different but a July 2009 type of outcome seems like a decent bet. Long duration heat event with a few days in the mid 100s.

Right about the same time too. I’m fully expecting 1 or 2 days here to hit 100 even right near the Puget sound. I thought we would be waiting another 10 years for something like July 2009 or June 2021 level to occur but I guess not. Hopefully something changes here in the next couple days on the models. 

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3 minutes ago, James Jones said:

The setup is somewhat different but a July 2009 type of outcome seems like a decent bet. Long duration heat event with a few days in the mid 100s.

I was kind of thinking the same thing.

Despite all the heat the last decade of summers, July ‘09 still holds the record for consecutive 90+ days at PDX, with ten.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, James Jones said:

The setup is somewhat different but a July 2009 type of outcome seems like a decent bet. Long duration heat event with a few days in the mid 100s.

Does have some hints of it in the wave train with the kind of wintry amplified look. 

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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My phone forecast usually updates at noon and reflects the latest ECMWF run.   Not today.   Refuses to bite on extreme heat.   Wish this was going to be the reality.   

Screenshot_20220719-125952_Google.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I wonder if the region’s vegetation will be able to handle another widespread scorching event a second year in a row. Feels like a nightmare.

feels like fire/smoke season is about to explode onto the scene here shortly. oof

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