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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


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It’s pretty crazy we are going to see another hot summer this year. I really though this one would at least be 1991-2020 average, with the “late” (historically normal) start, wet June and very Niña esque April-Jun.

Seems like ENSO forcing hasn’t been quite right for a few years now though.  Similar type of thing with Feb/March 2019.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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55 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not sure where to go from here. Hoping the EPS is at least a notch or two more reasonable. If not might just need a break.

Misery loves company. Believe me, I can empathize.

E9344BA3-8E58-4104-924E-1E271B59709F.png

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

There are a couple of outrageous EPS members, as in literally a repeat of June 2021. Let’s hope those are wrong. 😬 

one thing in our favor is sun angles are slightly less than they were during the heatwave last june.  not much but some

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

one thing in our favor is sun angles are slightly less than they were during the heatwave last june.  not much but some

That’s not going to be a huge factor at this point. Doesn’t really make a dent in anything until mid-August 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was kind of thinking the same thing.

Despite all the heat the last decade of summers, July ‘09 still holds the record for consecutive 90+ days at PDX, with ten.

And the record for consecutive 100+ was all the way back in 1941. Really hoping we don't match that one.

I'm hoping the cool and wet spring will help the vegetation, though if mega heatwaves start to become a near annual occurrence it could get ugly. 

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s not going to be a huge factor at this point. Doesn’t really make a dent in anything until mid-August 

This heatwave might end up being worse just based on it being longer duration. Might not hit those 6/28/21 temps but it could be worse having close to that heat for a longer time. 

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s not going to be a huge factor at this point. Doesn’t really make a dent in anything until mid-August 

I guess I was thinking last year was literally right after the equinox.  but yeah you're right 

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Checks the forecast:

1828416588_OhPleaseGodNo.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s pretty crazy we are going to see another hot summer this year. I really though this one would at least be 1991-2020 average, with the “late” (historically normal) start, wet June and very Niña esque April-Jun.

Seems like ENSO forcing hasn’t been quite right for a few years now though.  Similar type of thing with Feb/March 2019.

I've seen some mets on twitter and other forums talk about how ENSO forcing and other teleconnections aren't producing traditional outcomes as reliably as they used to. No idea if that's confirmation bias or what, but you're definitely not the only one to make that observation. 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This heatwave might end up being worse just based on it being longer duration. Might not hit those 6/28/21 temps but it could be worse having close to that heat for a longer time. 

My AC didn't make a lick of difference w/ the 108 stuff. It was only tolerable during the night. 

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16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s pretty crazy we are going to see another hot summer this year. I really though this one would at least be 1991-2020 average, with the “late” (historically normal) start, wet June and very Niña esque April-Jun.

Seems like ENSO forcing hasn’t been quite right for a few years now though.  Similar type of thing with Feb/March 2019.

ENSO seems to mean less and less these days, for better and (usually) for worse.

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12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I guess I was thinking last year was literally right after the equinox.  but yeah you're right 

This is just for Seattle alone but compared to the 28th of last June vs. this upcoming heatwave... you're still looking at 15+ hours of daylight. 

15h56m on June 28 vs 15h06m on July 28. 

50 minutes more of nighttime isn't going to put a dent in anything. And sun angles during this time of year is moot. 

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11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

My AC didn't make a lick of difference w/ the 108 stuff. It was only tolerable during the night. 

mine didn't here either at 113 last year, house was in the mid 80s.  but apparently had a coolant leak and just got that fixed and recharged so I'm interested to see what happens this time around. 

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15 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I've seen some mets on twitter and other forums talk about how ENSO forcing and other teleconnections aren't producing traditional outcomes as reliably as they used to. No idea if that's confirmation bias or what, but you're definitely not the only one to make that observation. 

More like recency bias. “ENSO teleconnections” are extremely state dependent. Look father back and you’ll find plenty of cases where patterns did not match the canonical ENSO response as viewed through a late 20th/early 21st century lens.

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5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

mine didn't here either at 113 last year, house was in the mid 80s.  but apparently had a coolant leak and just got that fixed and recharged so I'm interested to see what happens this time around. 

My Geothermal system works amazingly well…However if something goes seriously wrong with it, it will be most likely more expensive to fix it than putting in a heat pump so that will be in our future I’m sure…Hopefully many years from now though. 
Pic from June of 2021, it was like walking into a Costco cooler with the difference between outside and inside! 

72C83FE2-E832-49BE-BB0C-01276727F2CD.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

More like recency bias. “ENSO teleconnections” are extremely state dependent. Look father back and you’ll find plenty of cases where patterns did not match the canonical ENSO response as viewed through a late 20th/early 21st century lens.

So a cool 🥶 last half of July still on the table?

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just went for a walk. 

F0366492-3D42-48AC-AD33-06588FC88D0D.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

D**n. Is that 18G36 wind helping at all? Even just a little?

Kind of feels like standing in front of a giant furnace. It is definitely a dry heat though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kind of feels like standing in front of a giant furnace. It is definitely a dry heat though. 

Are your kids excited to come to more 100 degree heat?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Right, so I'm not sure that some decadal cold in the NW part of the region last winter is as much of a balancing act as your post seemed to imply.

The extremes are, have been, and will continue to be overwhelmingly on one side of the spectrum. It is what it is. And with that, the goalposts will continue to move and our sense of what even constitutes "extreme" will continue to be skewed ever  upwards. 

Saw a Tweet last week that a city in Australia had set a new all time low temperature record. 

It was the only all time cold record in the world for this year, to go along with 140 (before the European heatwave) all time record High temps. So 140 to 1 currently for all time Heat versus all time cold this year. 

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2 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

This. There's no reason we can't get a record breaking anomalous ridge to develop around the Alaska Aleutian Islands this winter. 

That already happened last December and it resulted in a few days of slop at KPDX 🥰

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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How about those teleconnections? Those troughy analogs?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are your kids excited to come to more 100 degree heat?

Well we are going to be at the coast Monday-Wednesday next week... might see about extending the camping portion of the trip.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Should we go ahead and ban Phil now or wait until the heat verifies?

If you ban me it’s right back to 1999-2005 winters. 

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If there's any solace, it's that the ICON and CMC both show weak troughing overcutting and inhibiting height rises over the PNW. Still highs in the 80s but nowhere near June 2021 levels.

The fact that is even an analog in conversation is just so disheartening. Barely over a year. I just can't believe it.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That already happened last December and it resulted in a few days of slop at KPDX 🥰

Our snow on the night of the 27th was quite dry and powdery, thank you very much!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

If you ban me it’s right back to 1999-2005 winters. 

I would take 1999-2005 for another century if it meant our region wouldn't experience a mid level die off event every other year

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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