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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. More original name title?

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    • Preferance Wars
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On an additional note, I have to say I'm very happy with how this forum has been all week. Seven days. One whole week. No drama! Even with a large heatwave coming into view! And not being weird about it either!! I appreciate you all listening, the quality of this place has improved tremendously.

There are a few members that have really stepped it up and they know who they are. Can't thank y'all enough.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

BC031135-0AE0-4948-8214-D2A5C9F0F14A.jpeg

9EFD3BE7-B2A7-4B87-8F78-BD77E017A288.jpeg

Cheers friends, had a great 21st (birthday, not just day of month!) today. Hope y'all are well. View at Ivar's was spectacular; and ordered my first drink. Lime basil cocktail. It was pretty good!

Happy Birthday ! Cheers 🍻 

83/56 and currently 70*

Sunset was nice but really no fun clouds to compliment it, looking west anyhow 

 

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On 7/17/2022 at 9:26 AM, Phil said:

That back-digging near the Aleutians is complete bulls**t.

My eyes bleed looking at it. Doesn’t make a lick of sense.

40907B50-E3AF-4987-BB29-D6B7235D8792.gif

Have to follow up on this... now that its actually happening.   

This is next 3.5 days per the 18Z ECMWF.    Goofy GFS was showing 'back digging' and its actually going to happen.    

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1658426400-1658426400-1658750400-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

BC031135-0AE0-4948-8214-D2A5C9F0F14A.jpeg

9EFD3BE7-B2A7-4B87-8F78-BD77E017A288.jpeg

Cheers friends, had a great 21st (birthday, not just day of month!) today. Hope y'all are well. View at Ivar's was spectacular; and ordered my first drink. Lime basil cocktail. It was pretty good!

I thought you were older lol…just turned 23 a couple months ago. Enjoy 21 while it lasts it just flys right by. 

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26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

D2771793-AD00-4059-A6FF-FC414A823F2E.png

I'll just take my 71 and sit quietly here in the back of the room.  Granted it will probably be in the upper 70's a few miles inland IMBY but that's a d*mn sight better than that upper 90's/triple digit bullsh*t taking aim at a lot of the forum members.

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I'll just take my 71 and sit quietly here in the back of the room.  Granted it will probably be in the upper 70's a few miles inland IMBY but that's a d*mn sight better than that upper 90's/triple digit bullsh*t taking aim at a lot of the forum members.

Pretty sure if its 100 degrees in Seattle then it will be at least 90 degrees in your area based on past history.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

I do have to wonder if Hunga Tonga is contributing to the unusual heat across the midlatitude NH. If it contributed to the unusual cold in April and May…

Are there any aggregate temp measures for the NH or midlatitudes yet? For recent months? Obviously its not causing the extreme heat events on its own but it would show up on an aggregation measure i'd think. that much water vapor into the air immediately should have some impact fairly quickly. I just havent seen anything posted about it anywhere. 

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7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I do have to wonder if Hunga Tonga is contributing to the unusual heat across the midlatitude NH. If it contributed to the unusual cold in April and May…

Phil says no way.   

My personal feeling is that it shifted the pattern and caused a resurgence of the Nina which had an immediate impact in the PNW with cold and wet weather.    But overall its going to lead to warming and it might last a few years based on what I have read.   Pretty much uncharted territory right now in terms of stratospheric water vapor.    

And this is a 3rd year Nina summer?   I can't imagine what the next Nino summer will be like.      

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I've got bad news... after all the progress shown in earlier runs, GFS decided to make a new PEAK hot day.  Now it's Friday.... and Tacoma is showing a high of 101F as is Portland.

So the original peak days of Tuesday and Wednesday are no more... now it's Thursday Friday. :(  Let's hope this changes. Horrible heat for the Columbia Basin with Twi-Cities at 114, Omak around 104, Spokane 102, Clarkston 104, The Dalles 111, Medford in a week long trend of 100 + degrees.  Gosh darn, what is happening?  Please just end all this. 

Still though, as I said before, cool spots are the coast. Oregon coast is 70s to as low as 60s.  Washington's coast is cooler in the mid 70s and north of Seattle between Everett and Bellingham is cooler, low 80s to 70s. Port Townsend is supposed to be in the 60s.  

Screen Shot 2022-07-21 at 9.53.30 PM.png

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The GFS is very decent after next Thursday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z runs are gross.

GFS looks OK.  A lot of strong onshore flow and minor troughing over us for week two.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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31 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I thought you were older lol…just turned 23 a couple months ago. Enjoy 21 while it lasts it just flys right by. 

Same here… Meatyorologist has a $hit ton of weather knowledge, more than I’ll ever have, so I thought he was actually an experienced met lol

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Meanwhile tomorrow is looking pretty cool.  SEA is running several degrees below last night at this time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS is very decent after next Thursday.

It still shows upper 90s on Friday and mid 90s on Saturday.

And doesn't show any real troughs making it solidly into WA and OR through the end of the run.    Lots of moderately warmer than normal weather after the heat wave.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I think he’s talking about the semi realistic range

The retrogression and increasing onshore flow are well advertised on all the models after next week.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Meanwhile tomorrow is looking pretty cool.  SEA is running several degrees below last night at this time.

ECMWF shows around 75 and GFS around 80... should be in the mid to upper 70s which is pretty much normal.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

GFS looks OK.  A lot of strong onshore flow and minor troughing over us for week two.

Your standards have changed for the 00Z GFS to be considered OK.   Even subtracting 5 degrees every day... this is still a warm run.    Also no big crash.

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-8448000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It still shows upper 90s on Friday and mid 90s on Saturday.

And doesn't show any real troughs making it solidly into WA and OR through the end of the run.    Lots of moderately warmer than normal weather after the heat wave.

I don't buy that.  We all know it has a terrible warm bias for surface temps anyway.  A good marine cloud day is pretty likely somewhere in the next Saturday through Monday time frame.  The 500mb pattern and surface gradients just don't scream abnormal warmth after next Friday or Saturday.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows around 75 and GFS around 80... should be in the mid to upper 70s which is pretty much normal.   

 

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It still shows upper 90s on Friday and mid 90s on Saturday.

And doesn't show any real troughs making it solidly into WA and OR through the end of the run.    Lots of moderately warmer than normal weather after the heat wave.

Thank you for calling it how it actually is. 

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