On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

You have been telling me for a month that it would probably be 120 degrees in Minnesota when I am there and everyone will die. 

But the reality is we will be home for an extended heat wave (during our supposedly cold second half of July) and then we have to deal with troughing and wet weather in Minnesota on vacation?   Dude.   

B*tch you’ve been moaning about clouds this entire spring/summer, even as recently as last weekend.  Your narratives flip like quicksilver.

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Four months from now the lights will be up.

Why wait?

Beat @MossMan to the punch.

[Jbolin]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 71 in North Bend now.

Thank you Jeff Renner

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

B*tch you’ve been moaning about clouds this entire spring/summer, even as recently as last weekend.  Your narratives flip like quicksilver.

No idea what you are saying.

You have been telling me it will be ungodly hot in MN.    Now it might be chilly and wet?    That sure changed.    So did the forecast for the second half of July here at home.

Side note... I don't like clouds/cool weather in the summer and I also don't like scorching heat.   Not sure how many times I have mentioned that!    I prefer our usual goldilocks weather.   Today is a perfect example of goldilocks weather.     I will never be happy with either extreme.... or anything that detracts from enjoying pleasant summer weather.   I am complicated.   

 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea what you are saying.

You have been telling me it will be ungodly hot in MN.    Now it might be chilly and wet?    That sure changed.    So did the forecast for the second half of July here at home.

Side note... I don't like clouds/cool weather in the summer and I also don't like scorching heat.   Not sure how many times I have mentioned that!    I prefer our usual goldilocks weather.   Today is a perfect example of goldilocks weather.     I will never be happy with either extreme.... or anything that detracts from enjoying pleasant summer weather.   I am complicated.   

 

Haha what? Dude that was tongue in cheek. I didn’t even know when specifically you were gonna be there, other than it was sometime earlyish in August.

You thought I made an actual prediction for your trip?  

[Deweydog]

Spectacular day!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Haha what? Dude that was tongue in cheek. I didn’t even know when specifically you were gonna be there, other than it was sometime earlyish in August.

You thought I made an actual prediction for your trip?  

Yeah... you have posted a few maps showing MN in dark red and implying we all might die!  

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Oh I agree there will be a relaxation at some point in August, and like you said it will probably be similar to last year.

Even though last August was certainly tolerable after the 15th, it was by no means a standout in historic terms. Which seemed almost astounding when you consider how anomalously ridgy the first half of last summer was. We never really did see any strong atmospheric counter-response to that, we just got a pleasant and milquetoast relatively mild period after two months of historic ridging. Kind of sad if you compare that to something like August 1977, when we could still see legitimately dynamic summer 500mb responses following a historic stretch of ridging. Just doesn't feel possible these days.

It was just slightly below normal in the final half by 1991-2020 averages. Felt pretty good after the hot few weeks we went through atleast. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... you have posted a few maps showing MN in dark red and implying we all might die!  

Well it’s a guarantee we all *will* die. Just hopefully not from a death ridge.

[TT-SEA]

72 out here now... barely a cloud in the sky.    So pleasant to be outside in the sun.    Really need to get out there and enjoy the next couple of days.  

[TacomaWx]

68 here nice day. 

[smerfylicious]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well it’s a guarantee we all *will* die. Just hopefully not from a death ridge.

Too late 

[Meatyorologist]

Reveling in the sunshine right now. A very comfortable 72F.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Oh I agree there will be a relaxation at some point in August, and like you said it will probably be similar to last year.

Even though last August was certainly tolerable after the 15th, it was by no means a standout in historic terms. Which seemed almost astounding when you consider how anomalously ridgy the first half of last summer was. We never really did see any strong atmospheric counter-response to that, we just got a pleasant and milquetoast relatively mild period after two months of historic ridging. Kind of sad if you compare that to something like August 1977, when we could still see legitimately dynamic summer 500mb responses following a historic stretch of ridging. Just doesn't feel possible these days.

Should be noted that the pattern in 1977 was extreme even by 20th century standards. That month was dominated by about as close to a truly winter-like meridional pattern as you can possibly get during the height of the warm season followed by an equally cold season style undercut of westerlies.

[Phil]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Reveling in the sunshine right now. A very comfortable 72F.

Very few people get to enjoy sunny and 72°F in July. You’re in an elite class, brother. 

i’ve got 95 and swampy haze.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Should be noted that the pattern in 1977 was extreme even by 20th century standards. That month was dominated by about as close to a truly winter-like meridional pattern as you can possibly get during the height of the warm season followed by an equally cold season style undercut of westerlies.

August 1977? Or did you mean July?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

August 1977? Or did you mean July?

August.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Very few people get to enjoy sunny and 72°F in July. You’re in an elite class, brother. 

i’ve got 95 and swampy haze.

There are about 6 million people just in western WA who can routinely enjoy that kind of weather.   

[Meatyorologist]

Some may be shocked to learn I am not a vampire, and that I do in fact enjoy brilliant sunshine from time to time.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Some may be shocked to learn I am not a vampire, and that I do in fact enjoy brilliant sunshine from time to time.

Hard to beat the weather today... and most of us probably agree on that!  

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hard to beat the weather today... and most of us probably agree on that!  

I wish it was raining 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There are about 6 million people just in western WA who can routinely enjoy that kind of weather.   

6 million out of how many million in the US?

Throw in northern New England and parts of the Midwest/Northern Interior West and you’ve got maybe 2% of the US population? At most?

A privileged class indeed.

[Phil]

Next trade burst is even farther west in the Pacific.

Will help prevent any future downwelling waves, and probably establish a west-based La Niña signature as we head later into the summer.

[BLI snowman]

30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Should be noted that the pattern in 1977 was extreme even by 20th century standards. That month was dominated by about as close to a truly winter-like meridional pattern as you can possibly get during the height of the warm season followed by an equally cold season style undercut of westerlies.

Sure, but last year's mammoth summer ridging pattern was decidedly meridional at times as well. The reality is that that sort of thing has become an overwhelmingly one way street in the summer nowadays. And again, not just for here but for the mid-latitudes as a whole.

Maybe Phil can help me out here but I'm wracking my brain trying to think of any legit examples of dynamic mid-summer troughing patterns in North America (or Europe/Asia) after 2014, which was quite troughy for the Midwest/East and ironically also featured one of our last impressive mid-summer troughs as well in spite of all the torching that surrounded it here that summer.

Just seems like the system baseline state for this stretch of calendar truly did shift a bit in the mid 2010s with the mega Nino and hasn't really looked back since.

Edited July 22, 2022 by BLI snowman

[NWbyNW]

NOAA Forecast discussions for Seattle and Portland about the upcoming... event.

 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 75 in North Bend now... might get close to 80.     The GFS did pretty good out here today.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Sure, but last year's mammoth summer ridging pattern was decidedly meridional at times as well. The reality is that that sort of thing has become an overwhelmingly one way street in the summer nowadays. And again, not just for here but for the mid-latitudes as a whole.

Maybe Phil can help me out here but I'm wracking my brain trying to think of any legit examples of dynamic mid-summer troughing patterns in North America (or Europe/Asia) after 2014, which was quite troughy for the Midwest/East and ironically also featured one of our last impressive mid-summer troughs as well in spite of all the torching that surrounded it here that summer.

Just seems like the system baseline state for this stretch of calendar truly did shift a bit in the mid 2010s with the mega Nino and hasn't really looked back since.

It’s been quite a run. And after next week it’ll have a little something to add to it, assuming the valley pulls off at least a seven day stretch which is pretty much the cutoff for what I’d consider midsummer noteworthiness without any ridiculous triple digit stuff. 

Long term climo though dictates that getting longwave troughing in here during the peak of the warm season is usually a long shot. The shot just recently has become longer.

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Maybe Phil can help me out here but I'm wracking my brain trying to think of any legit examples of dynamic mid-summer troughing patterns in North America (or Europe/Asia) after 2014, which was quite troughy for the Midwest/East and ironically also featured one of our last impressive mid-summer troughs as well in spite of all the torching that surrounded it here that summer.

Just seems like the system baseline state for this stretch of calendar truly did shift a bit in the mid 2010s with the mega Nino and hasn't really looked back since.

The answer is there haven’t been any. At least none that are notable. The few mediocre examples (later on in the summers of 2017 and 2018) benefited the Midwest and East, but screwed the West.

That 2015/16 niño probably did alter the background state to some degree, as most do. Probably need another one for a similarly substantial change away from this mess.

Does seem most super Niños do mark the beginning of some kind of climate shift.

2015/16: Big shift towards +TNH/+NAO, also further building on the 4CH expansion that began after 1997/98.

1997/98: The big kahuna. Radical step change in the NH subtropical Pacific/Indian Ocean z-cells and seasonality, marking the inception of the 4CH era.

1982/83: Shifted the system into a more -NPO state, which added a more continental flavor to the CONUS climate.

1972/73: Terminated the deep -NAO/-NAM background state that had dominated since the 1957/58 super niño.

1957/58: Marked the inception of the -NAO era and subsequent cooling of the NATL/Arctic, and the expansion of the Arctic sea ice pack.

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

Its a 90s party until August. 

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s been quite a run. And after next week it’ll have a little something to add to it, assuming the valley pulls off at least a seven day stretch which is pretty much the cutoff for what I’d consider midsummer noteworthiness without any ridiculous triple digit stuff. 

Long term climo though dictates that getting longwave troughing in here during the peak of the warm season is usually a long shot. The shot just recently has become longer.

It is, but it simply wasn't that long ago that it was still a relatively normal occurrence. Even in an otherwise unspectacular and warmish summer like a 1996

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0717.php

a 2002

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2002/us0804.php

or a 2014

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014/us0724.php

I legitimately almost can't even picture a pattern like that happening in July or August nowadays.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

As someone who is experiencing their first whole summer outside of the PNW, I can attest to the fact that PNW-ers are very privileged on the summer weather front.

I always knew that we had comfortable summers out there but lemme tell ya... After many 90+ degree days with 70+ degree DPs, I didn't realize just how good we had it in the PNW. I definitely miss it already.

I hate leaving here in the summer.  

[Deweydog]

18z continues to defy the persistence-peddling king is off its rocker.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

18z continues to defy the persistence-peddling king is off its rocker.

Strong HCS potential on Thursday there.

[GobBluth]

Retrogression!

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It is, but it simply wasn't that long ago that it was still a relatively normal occurrence. Even in an otherwise unspectacular and warmish summer like a 1996

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0717.php

a 2002

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2002/us0804.php

or a 2014

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014/us0724.php

I legitimately almost can't even picture a pattern like that happening in July or August nowadays.

Does 2016 fit the narrative?

7/19/16, 8/2/16, 8/7/16… All quite comparable in intensity and scope.

[Requiem]

Some good hour 200 improvements on the druncle at least

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Strong HCS potential on Thursday there.

Definitely. I left that out of my forecast but that little guy offshore could easily tap into some mid level scud.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely. I left that out of my forecast but that little guy offshore could easily tap into some mid level scud.

HCS?

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Does 2016 fit the narrative?

7/19/16, 8/2/16, 8/7/16… All quite comparable in intensity and scope.

The 8/7/16 trough may have been, otherwise I would say no.