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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

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  1. 1. More original name title?

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Today is so nice. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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35 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The 8/7/16 trough may have been, otherwise I would say no. 

Dunno… those were all at least comparable on a 500mb level and occurred within a three and a half week span as opposed to 18 years.

1996 however was a beast and gets mentioned in isolation quite a bit. It was anomalous even during the LIA of the pre-2015 world.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Marine layer really cleared out well except for along the WA coast.     And does not look too solid offshore so I am guessing tomorrow will be the same before the heat wave starts ramping up.   

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20220722.233617-over=map-bars=.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Very sunny and warm here in Everett.  72F is the current high for the day, ocean breeze.  Looking towards the Cascade's it looks like there is a lot of clouds forming up in dem' hills. Thunderstorms?  

Live view here near the Cascades... no thunderstorms.   

20220722_171053.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Dunno… those were all at least comparable on a 500mb level and occurred within a three and a half week span as opposed to 18 years.

1996 however was a beast and gets mentioned in isolation quite a bit. It was anomalous even during the LIA of the pre-2015 world.

It was certainly anomalous, but you have to remember that it really was a different landscape with summer troughing back then by a comfortable margin. I don't think that's hyperbolic at all. 

1996 was only 1 year removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us0807.php

3 years removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0729.php

7 years removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0801.php

9 years removed from this (produced a 47 degree high in Bend)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1987/us0718.php

And 10 years removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us0716.php

Whereas now we're having to wrack our brains to go back 6-8 years to find something that's maybe even 75% as impressive.

Edited by BLI snowman
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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It was certainly anomalous, but you have to remember that it really was a different landscape with summer troughing back then by a comfortable margin. I don't think that's hyperbolic at all. 

1996 was only 1 year removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us0807.php

3 years removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0729.php

7 years removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0801.php

9 years removed from this (produced a 47 degree high in Bend)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1987/us0718.php

And 10 years removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us0716.php

Whereas now we're having to wrack our brains to go back 6-8 years to find something that's maybe even 75% as impressive.

What about this beast in July 2019...

compday.QqL3UR8_oj.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It was certainly anomalous, but you have to remember that it really was a different landscape with summer troughing then by a comfortable margin. I don't think that's hyperbolic at all. 

1996 was only 1 year removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us0807.php

3 years removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0729.php

7 years removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0801.php

9 years removed from this (produced a 47 degree high in Bend)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1987/us0718.php

And 10 years removed from this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us0716.php

Whereas now we're having to wrack our brains to go back 6-8 years to find something that's even 75% as impressive.

You made it sound like pretty much any kind of even quasi-impressive vort infiltration at this point has essentially become an impossibility in the post-2015 world. I don’t think that’s the case.

I do think it could easily be argued that the ferocity and frequency have both decreased. It’s a similar logic regarding our top tier cold season air masses. Possible in the hypothetical but it’s never been a better bet to bet against them.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What about this beast in July 2019...

compday.QqL3UR8_oj.gif

Definitely not on the level of any of the troughs mentioned above. Also born out by the unimpressive temperatures that brought with it. Eugene barely scored a sub-80 day with that.

This is a little further back and also a little more early summer, but a prime example of what we simply don't come close to seeing anymore. This brought snow down to Government Camp. And just a month before the huge heat wave, mind you.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1981/us0707.php

For as much as it feels like our ability to see impressive cold anomalies or troughing in the winter has been neutered, the difference with summer is clearly much more stark.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You made it sound like pretty much any kind of even quasi-impressive vort infiltration at this point has essentially become an impossibility in the post-2015 world. I don’t think that’s the case.

I do think it could easily be argued that the ferocity and frequency have both decreased. It’s a similar logic regarding our top tier cold season air masses. Possible in the hypothetical but it’s never been a better bet to bet against them.

I actually don't think it could even remotely be argued otherwise, for our region at least. It's pretty much an established fact.

And "quasi-impressive vort infiltration" is obviously highly subjective but the complete dearth of prominent examples recently across a broad swath of the mid-latitudes certainly demonstrates that it's effectively on life support. Whether that remains the case going forward is anyone's guess.

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17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I actually don't think it could even remotely be argued otherwise, for our region at least. It's pretty much an established fact.

And "quasi-impressive vort infiltration" is obviously highly subjective but the complete dearth of prominent examples recently across a broad swath of the mid-latitudes certainly demonstrates that it's effectively on life support. Whether that remains the case going forward is anyone's guess.

I’d suspect at least on a regional level the SW drought and it’s feedback effects are significant piece of the puzzle. It’s just too easy during the zenith of the warm season for Pacific energy to phase with the ridiculous subsidence factory down there.

That said, synoptics are still a thing and I think it’s way too far reaching make declarations about the end of impactful troughing within the mid summer bubble. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’d suspect at least on a regional level the SW drought and it’s feedback effects are significant piece of the puzzle. It’s just too easy during the zenith of the warm season for Pacific energy to phase with the ridiculous subsidence factory down there.

That said, synoptics are still a thing and I think it’s way too far reaching make declarations about the end of impactful troughing within the mid summer bubble. 

Ninas forever!  We need our lowland snow chances.   Screw the SW.    Their problems can't possibly have any impact on us.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ninas forever!  We need our lowland snow chances.   Screw the SW.    Their problems can't possibly have any impact on us.

Watch the next niño be like 1957/58 and result in a cool western summer. Soon enough you’ll be cheering on niñas and dreading niños. 

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20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’d suspect at least on a regional level the SW drought and it’s feedback effects are significant piece of the puzzle. It’s just too easy during the zenith of the warm season for Pacific energy to phase with the ridiculous subsidence factory down there.

That said, synoptics are still a thing and I think it’s way too far reaching make declarations about the end of impactful troughing within the mid summer bubble. 

Certainly possible. The 4CH expansion is a pretty noticeable fly in the ointment in recent years and has had impacts in all directions. Another example being on its eastern flank where it seems to be a factor in really cutting into severe weather/tornado climo on the High Plains and Southern Plains.

As far as what we'll see in the future, I'll leave that up to Kevin Martin, Ed Berry, and Chris Durkin.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Watch the next niño be like 1957/58 and result in a cool western summer. Soon enough you’ll be cheering on niñas and dreading niños. 

Doesn't matter... the SW could really use a couple years of Nino.   Gives them a fighting chance at least.    

And 2019 was ENSO positive all year... it was the most consistently wet summer I have experienced here.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

What about this beast in July 2019...

compday.QqL3UR8_oj.gif

2019 is the closest we've come to a real cold summer this last decade. Just got trapped in the SW'lies way too often and it never cooled off at night.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Certainly possible. The 4CH expansion is a pretty noticeable fly in the ointment in recent years and has had impacts in all directions. Another example being on its eastern flank where it seems to be a factor in really cutting into severe weather/tornado climo on the High Plains and Southern Plains.

As far as what we'll see in the future, I'll leave that up to Kevin Martin, Ed Berry, and Chris Durkin.

Definitely, and that has actually increased our severe weather climo as a result.

We’re having another strong year locally. In fact we’ve had the 3rd most severe thunderstorm warnings of any WFO in the country. 

Very reminiscent of 2021. Both driven by the 4CH.

C3D58915-1684-4438-A43E-79D6F9F17A25.png

 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sky has that yeah-it-might-be-cool-right-now-but-the-models-say-it-is-gonna-get-hot-as-f*ck-and-it-is-gonna-snow-next-January-and-Epstein-didn’t-kill-himself look to it right now.

Weird. Simba’s father actually appeared to me in the night sky last night and also told me that Epstein didn’t kill himself. The skies don’t lie. 

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13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You call it wimpy. I call it perfection! The skies are beautifully blue. 

It was beautiful... just wimpy compared to how much warmer it was out here.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2019 is the closest we've come to a real cold summer this last decade. Just got trapped in the SW'lies way too often and it never cooled off at night.

Honestly I think a 2019 type summer is probably the best we can do from a cool summer lover’s perspective in this day and age. 

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31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2019 is the closest we've come to a real cold summer this last decade. Just got trapped in the SW'lies way too often and it never cooled off at night.

Ironically the +ENSO/narrow Hadley Cell going into that summer is the reason it turned out that way.

I think what would help is a more +SPMM (at least relative to NPMM). For whatever reason, that -SPMM feature seems to be present in a lot of the hottest, nastiest summers in the West (and CONUS overall). And it’s been a staple of the past decade, particularly.

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Marine layer really cleared out well except for along the WA coast.     And does not look too solid offshore so I am guessing tomorrow will be the same before the heat wave starts ramping up.   

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20220722.233617-over=map-bars=.gif

Marine layer paid off huge for me this morning!!! 

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