MossMan Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 52! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different! I’ll be in Tampa FL so it won’t matter for me. 7 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 61. Some clouds building back from the Cascades on the IR loop now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Just now, Phil said: Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different! Cool August?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different! In agreement with its operational run at that same time... which then went right back to ridging. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different! I’ll be in Tampa FL so it won’t matter for me. Was just gonna post that it gives me a little bit of mental strength to get through this if we don’t see endless cuck bashing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: In agreement with its operational run at that same time... which then went right back to ridging. No 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: Was just gonna post that it gives me a little bit of mental strength to get through this if we don’t see endless cuck bashing I posted it earlier today... but the 12Z EPS looked similar around day 11 and 12. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: In agreement with its operational run at that same time... which then went right back to ridging. Operational is much warmer at the same time. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: No GFS at 276 hours on top... GEFS on the bottom. Good agreement. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I posted it earlier today... but the 12Z EPS looked similar around day 11 and 12. When are you in MN again? Models trending warmer again there in early August. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: GFS at 276 hours on top... GEFS on the bottom. Good agreement. Ensemble mean is cooler. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Just now, Phil said: When are you in MN again? Models trending warmer again there in early August. Good. Next week looks a little too chilly. Mid 80s is good for being on a lake in MN. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Cold Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Ensemble mean is cooler. Same general pattern. Its a clear ridge break down on both. EPS showed it too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 That’s actually pretty different. Operational GFS has 2 cutoff ULLs and 2 EPAC hurricanes doing a fujiwhara dance..seems unlikely but who knows. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Just now, Phil said: That’s actually pretty different. Operational GFS has 2 cutoff ULLs and 2 EPAC hurricanes doing a fujiwhara dance..seems unlikely but who knows. When you are analyzing the specific details of the GFS and GEFS at almost 300 hours out... you are probably wasting your time. The 12Z runs will likely be entirely different. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: When you are analyzing the specific details of the GFS and GEFS at almost 300 hours out... you are probably wasting your time. The 12Z runs will likely be entirely different. Lol, I’m just bored dude. Hot weather gives me insomnia. But in all seriousness that solution with the EPAC hurricanes is probably whack. As for the rest, I have no idea. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 CMC ensembles have the early August trough signal now as well. Interesting. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: GFS at 276 hours on top... GEFS on the bottom. Good agreement. I meant to say - no!!!! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: CMC ensembles have the early August trough signal now as well. Interesting. Not really that surprising... obviously it won't stay hot forever. Looks like more of a return to normal for awhile on the CMC ensembles. That would be nice. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: I meant to say - no!!!! Good news is that the GEFS does not go back to hot immediately afterwards like the GFS. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Euro still intent on melting the line. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Warm overnight lows have been absurd lately. Seemingly everywhere. Still can’t believe those 19th/early 20th century low temps were possible. Even with a coolish pattern (up until this week, at least), since June 29th it’s only dropped below 70°F twice at DCA. And one of the times was in the middle of a t-storm microburst, after which it rebounded into the 70s and warmed all night despite clears skies. I’d think it was UHI, but even awful summers like 2011 and 2012 had plenty of lows in the 60s, and UHI was already maxed by then. Something is just different now. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 I have a bad feeling the EC is going to be right. We almost always overperform like Peter North for high temps here. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: Warm overnight lows have been absurd lately. Seemingly everywhere. Still can’t believe those 19th/early 20th century low temps were possible. Even with a coolish pattern (up until this week, at least), since June 29th it’s only dropped below 70°F twice at DCA. And one of the times was in the middle of a t-storm microburst, after which it rebounded into the 70s and warmed all night despite clears skies. I’d think it was UHI, but even awful summers like 2011 and 2012 had plenty of lows in the 60s, and UHI was already maxed by then. Something is just different now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 41 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: No Yeah, I don’t know why those 500mb height anomaly maps are constantly posted. I prefer the spaghetti charts since they show more than just a cherry picked snapshot at a given frame. The operational GFS was obviously a huge outlier compared to the GEFS in he long range. There’s no argument there. Not saying that’s what will happen, just talking about tonight’s run of course. 6 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 So the onshore component is going to help with fire risk with this, right? Like it’s not gonna be a raging east wind atleast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: So the onshore component is going to help with fire risk with this, right? Like it’s not gonna be a raging east wind atleast? No offshore flow to speak of. Each day will have a diurnal component with minor reversals possible at the usual suspects like Kelso, Corvallis, Shelton… Dew points will probably drift well into the 60’s at some point. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: So the onshore component is going to help with fire risk with this, right? Like it’s not gonna be a raging east wind atleast? Yeah Mark Nelsen on his blog mentioned that the fire danger won't be that bad, but overnight temps will be warm because of humidity. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Uggghhh not a fan of the mugginess that’ll accompany the heat but atleast it’ll mitigate fire concerns in the short term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Euro looks toasty on Sunday too. Sucks how long it’ll be hot but hopefully this is the big summer heat event and the rest of the summer ends up being more pleasant. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Just now, TacomaWx said: Euro looks toasty on Sunday too. Sucks how long it’ll be hot but hopefully this is the big summer heat event and the rest of the summer ends up being more pleasant. I spy a retrogression. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Might be too hot for the Mermaid Parade next Saturday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Euro looks toasty on Sunday too. Sucks how long it’ll be hot but hopefully this is the big summer heat event and the rest of the summer ends up being more pleasant. This heatwave could set a record for 95+ days in a row at Portland. We could see two record setting heat waves in two years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: I spy a retrogression. I really hope so. Looks pretty toasty for a week straight by PNW standards after tomorrow. Just hoping the models start showing the cooldown sooner I’d like it to be over by this time next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Doiinko said: This heatwave could set a record for 95+ days in a row at Portland. We could see two record setting heat waves in two years. It could be a record up here too for consecutive +90s. It’s pretty hard to do more than 3 in a row so 5 would be pretty impressive statistically. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Nice day at the ball park. Too bad we lost but glad to hear Julio is okay. 5 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Featured Comment Guest administrator Posted July 23, 2022 Featured Comment Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Meet Cyrus, a future forum admin and extreme fog chaser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, administrator said: Meet Cyrus, a future forum admin and extreme fog chaser. Congrats Fred! Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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