Meatyorologist Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: 12z Euro sure is stubborn with dropping us below 90 for highs. It shows us in the low to mid 90s over next weekend into Monday which is much more tolerable than 100, but still way slower with the cool down than other runs. Would get us close to a record for consecutive days above 90 at face value. I feel as if the biosphere is better equipped to deal with prolonged 90s vs going well into the 100s again for a slightly shorter amount of time. Unfortunately neither is good. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Yeah the ensembles seem to crash this weekend while the latest control run keeps us hot through Sunday. Hopefully we can get into a troughy pattern in early august. Would be great if we can avoid a warm pattern at all again or delay it until the second half of august so the sun angles can start taking the edge off of another heatwave if it comes. A cool August would be a huge prize at this point. At least it's possible the way things currently look. CPC has equal chances for that month. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Still about 5 or 6 off I'm guessing. I’d guess the gfs is 3-4 too high and the euros 3-4 too low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A cool August would be a huge prize at this point. At least it's possible the way things currently look. CPC has equal chances for that month. I think we will get another warm period sometime between 8/10-8/20 but nothing like this. Best case scenario probably a +1 or +2 month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: And now Jim is posting about it so it definitely won’t happen. You have gotten mean dude. This climate can do it to you if you don't watch out. I think the point where I realized I had to let it go (just a tiny bit) was in the early 2000s. The lameness of the 1998 - 2001 La Nina damn near drove me over the edge. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 73F, a slight breeze, and brilliantly sunny. I do miss the clouds but sometimes on days like these I see where Tim's weather preferences come from. Too bad we'll be choking on 90F smoke come Thursday. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: I think we will get another warm period sometime between 8/10-8/20 but nothing like this. Best case scenario probably a +1 or +2 month. You have to go with persistence after 21 warm ones, but the possible very cool start might give us a chance. I would call an average below 65.0 for SEA a win. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 73F, a slight breeze, and brilliantly sunny. I do miss the clouds but sometimes on days like these I see where Tim's weather preferences come from. Too bad we'll be choking on 90F smoke come Thursday. I think days like yesterday and Friday are pretty much unbeatable unless we manage a day with full sun and temps something like 72/48. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 The ECMWF gets there, but still way slower than other models. Not sure what to make of the delay compared to the EPS. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Already hotter than ** in a biscuit in twisp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Pretty incredible when the GFS and ECMWF ensembles both have heights approaching 6000 over the GOA over a week out. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Already hotter than ** in a biscuit in twisp It could get REALLY hot on the east side with this pattern. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: 12z Euro sure is stubborn with dropping us below 90 for highs. It shows us in the low to mid 90s over next weekend into Monday which is much more tolerable than 100, but still way slower with the cool down than other runs. Would get us close to a record for consecutive days above 90 at face value. Operational Euro looks like a massive outlier on the EPS mean, thankfully. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Euro and EPS are juuust a bit different. Lol 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Pretty incredible when the GFS and ECMWF ensembles both have heights approaching 6000 over the GOA over a week out. Positive height anomalies well into the 590’s out around 40N aren’t too uncommon. Plus it’s stretch to consider that the GOA seeing as though it’s at the same latitude as Northern CA. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 28 minutes ago, Phil said: Euro and EPS are juuust a bit different. Lol Red is better than blue for jetsking! 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: Red is better than blue for jetsking! You’d rather the water be red than blue? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Sometimes I go on baseball streaks. This is one of them. When the tix are cheap, why not right? 5 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Sometimes I go on baseball streaks. This is one of them. When the tix are cheap, why not right? Those guys posing for your picture suck at posing for pictures. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Already up to 75 in North Bend. 80 here now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 75 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 minute ago, rsktkr said: Those guys posing for your picture suck at posing for pictures. 20+ year playoff droughts are far better than rate hikes for battling inflation. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 59 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I feel as if the biosphere is better equipped to deal with prolonged 90s vs going well into the 100s again for a slightly shorter amount of time. Unfortunately neither is good. At least heat waves peaking in the low 100s have been happening here the last 80 years or so. July 1941 was the first “modern” type heatwave in lots of ways. This one could end up similar if not a little lower on the top end. Similar from a humidity aspect too. July 1941 in many ways represented a step change as far as what our climate is capable of with respect to heat, and we never really looked back. Got to wonder if June 2021 represented a similar step change. 1 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 EPS looks way better than the operational for breaking down the hot pattern by next weekend. Looks like the control run is in good agreement with the operational though so who knows. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the 90s hold through next Monday or so. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Heading down to southern Oregon and the coast with the herd. Nice day. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 EPS looks nice and faster than the operational. can't wait to see if the trough ends up as sharp as some models are showing. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: Euro and EPS are juuust a bit different. Lol Not sure what's up with the operational. The model is far from perfect, although better than the GFS of course. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Nice to see the dew points already creeping up. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 77 DP 62. Decent breeze so it doesn’t feel too bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 The hottest temperature the past three days has been 72F and we are almost at that high temperature today. Currently 71F in Everett. Clear, sunny skies. I've noticed this dry, sunny streak of weather has made all the plants explode in size. Garden is overflowing with big green leaves. For the most part, grass is still green almost everywhere I go in the north sound. That will be changing soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Meaty, we all took a vote and you’re banned from T-Mobile Park UFN. 1 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: The hottest temperature the past three days has been 72F and we are almost at that high temperature today. Currently 71F in Everett. Clear, sunny skies. I've noticed this dry, sunny streak of weather has made all the plants explode in size. Garden is overflowing with big green leaves. For the most part, grass is still green almost everywhere I go in the north sound. That will be changing soon. Pretty soon all the plants will be brown and dead. RIP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said: Pretty soon all the plants will be brown and dead. RIP Then snow will arrive? Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Haven’t had any rain since 7/6. Hopefully the potential troughing gets us something in august but we will see. The grass is mostly brown here but everything overall looks better than it did last summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 1 hour ago, rsktkr said: Those guys posing for your picture suck at posing for pictures. Can't be as bad as the Mariners in the first half of this game lol. Up to 91F. 73F inside currently. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 24 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: Pretty soon all the plants will be brown and dead. RIP Yearly occurrence in Southern California. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Yearly occurrence in Southern California. Also here in EWA. Everything was green until about a week ago. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Took a walk. Saw a bald eagle. 82 here. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Pretty notable how quickly most valley locations are warming on a NW breeze today. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 Cut my grass to short and now it’s dying #whereistherain 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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