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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

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5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Remember when you told me a late July hot spell wasn’t happening this year. That was a good one. 😂 

Lmao, well it wouldn’t have happened if guidance had been even remotely correct with tropical forcing. 90% of the time tropical-ET disconnect resolves in the direction of the former. This time it didn’t. 🤷‍♂️ I haven’t figured out how to spot those unusual cases where the extratropics lead (more common during boreal winter).

That change that was scheduled for late July is now lined up for early August. But will it hold? Time will tell!

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Good way to demonstrate this.

Note the -dAAMt was that originally modeled for late July is now progged to begin in early/mid August. Huge miss across guidance with this one.

And it’s still getting delayed. Most of this is due to the model underestimating the La Niña circulation (rising AAM integral to fast/early), but that makes it more difficult to accurately determine the timing of the peak and subsequent negative tendency absent a coherent picture of the MJO/GWO at-range.

If this La Niña regime wasn’t such a beast the intraseasonal cycle might’ve been more coherent/accurate in the model.

69F5A6A7-72DC-45AB-B40F-0E1C2289CA5A.png

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17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Actually the last 2 triple dip niñas were followed by ENSO neutral.

1998-2000 followed by neutral in 2001/02. Then El Niño in 2002/03.

1974-1976 followed by neutral in 1976/77. In fact ENSO neutral continued until the super niño in 1982/83.

The 1954/55 to 1956/57 triple -ENSO was followed by a super El Niño in 1957/58, but ironically 1957 was a cool summer in the West.

Not trying to contradict you but.. are you saying a climate.gov analysis is wrong?  

Quote

As we’ve mentioned a few times here on the ENSO Blog, we’ve had La Niña for three winters in a row only twice before:1973–1976 and 1998–2001. Both of those periods followed very strong El Niño events

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not trying to contradict you but.. are you saying a climate.gov analysis is wrong?  

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake

Yes that is wrong/misleading. Their fault, not yours.

Neither event was followed by a “very strong” niño. 2001/02 was ENSO neutral, and 1976/77 was a weak event that barely met the threshold.

Here’s ENSO ONI back to 1950.

911A6771-26D9-4D0A-8F10-91C7662ACFBB.png

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes that is wrong/misleading. Their fault, not yours. “Followed by” leaves a lot of wiggle room.

The 1973/74 to 1975/76 event was most certainly not “followed by” a strong niño. Here’s ENSO ONI back to 1950.

911A6771-26D9-4D0A-8F10-91C7662ACFBB.png

Crap like this shouldn't even be allowed to publish on a .gov website then. It looked to me the next strong Nino event was 82/83 after the first triple dip events. 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

You had a 3 month winning streak that just ended a few weeks ago.    

 

...After a decade of no cold Springs. ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Crap like this shouldn't even be allowed to publish on a .gov website then. It looked to me the next strong Nino event was 82/83 after the first triple dip events. 

Actually reading it again they said the last two triple dip niñas *followed* strong Niños, not that they were *followed by* strong Niños.

In other words, those cases were strong Niños *followed by* triple dip Niñas. Where-as the current event followed the warm-neutral ENSO of 2019/20. Which makes it unique.

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

...After a decade of no cold Springs. ;)

Plenty of wet springs though.    And quite a winning streak for rain lovers this spring... same with Oct-Dec of last year.   Even the flooding enthusiasts got some love.     Too much love for those in NW WA and SW BC.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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However the 1954-56 triple dip -ENSO was preceded by a weak Niño (and a generally Niño heavy period onwards from 1952). Which is more similar to this year.

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The Dalles already at a steamy 104 🤧

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Actually reading it again they said the last two triple dip niñas *followed* strong Niños, not that they were *followed by* strong Niños.

In other words, those cases were strong Niños *followed by* triple dip Niñas. Where-as the current event followed the warm-neutral ENSO of 2019/20. Which makes it unique.

Makes sense!

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32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lmao, well it wouldn’t have happened if guidance had been even remotely correct with tropical forcing. 90% of the time tropical-ET disconnect resolves in the direction of the former. This time it didn’t. 🤷‍♂️ I haven’t figured out how to spot those unusual cases where the extratropics lead (more common during boreal winter).

That change that was scheduled for late July is now lined up for early August. But will it hold? Time will tell!

I’m sure it’ll probably hold.  I’d be surprised if early august doesn’t end up seasonably cool at least.  

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Plenty of wet springs though.    And quite a winning streak for rain lovers this spring... same with Oct-Dec of last year.   Even the flooding enthusiasts got some love.     Too much love for those in NW WA and SW BC.    

that's cool and all but i never brought up precip?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Interesting 6/10 of the top CPC analogs are from triple dip niñas. Though technically 2001 was on the tail.

1998 3 times, 1955 2 times.

E636F291-7F20-4C99-9D61-0FC449C35107.gif

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15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

that's cool and all but i never brought up precip?

That's cool... but Jesse said evil always wins and it definitely felt like that this spring when it wouldn't stop raining.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That's cool... but Jesse said evil always wins and it definitely felt like that this spring when it wouldn't stop raining.  😀

Rain = evil. Fire and dead trees = holy.

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Trees love summer rain.

10.34” of blessings here this month, and trees look even greener now than in June despite the heat over the last week.

Doubt that’d be the case without all that evil rain.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Trees love summer rain.

10.34” of blessings here this month, and trees look even greener now than in June despite the heat over the last week.

Doubt that’d be the case without all that evil rain.

Trees here are acclimated to very distinct rainy and dry seasons.   

It was pretty obvious that July was going to be quite dry here in the foothills after the April-June period we had... based on 125+ years of history.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Trees here are acclimated to very distinct rainy and dry seasons.   

It was pretty obvious that July was going to be quite dry here in the foothills after the April-June period we had... based on 125+ years of history.   

Were 2010 and 2011 dry? Because those were both wet springs

I’m sure your trees would love some rain right about now.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Trees here are acclimated to very distinct rainy and dry seasons.   

But recently our summer climate has grown quite a bit more arid, to a point of concern. Makes a little too much rain seem less 'evil'...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Were 2010 and 2011 dry? Because those were both wet springs

I’m sure your trees would love some rain right about now.

2010 and 2011 turned quite dry.   Took a little longer in 2011 though.   But both years had a long stretch of dry weather here in the foothills and part of the reason I anticipated it happening again this year.   In contrast to years like 2016 and 2019.

I would love a good soaking rain for a day too.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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90 in North Bend... but only 84 at SEA.

Its likely going to be warmer than Seattle out here for at least the next 8-10 days with weak onshore flow.

Its 89 and 91 at the stations up here so about the same as NB.

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GFS continues to ignore the ECMWF/EPS and brings troughing in on Sunday.    Sort of cheering for the GFS... partly out of patriotism and also because we are going to be gone.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-9312000.png

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18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

But recently our summer climate has grown quite a bit more arid, to a point of concern. Makes a little too much rain seem less 'evil'...

Not so much in terms of rainfall.   There actually isn't much of trend in that regard.    But definitely in terms of temperature. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, Phil said:

Were 2010 and 2011 dry? Because those were both wet springs

I’m sure your trees would love some rain right about now.

March and April 2011 were wet but May was just slightly above average and June was actually dry in Portland area. Basically ideal Jim weather in May and June.

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