On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[FroYoBro]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Went straight to the game after work. Dress code is no shorts.

You 33 up.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Went straight to the game after work. Dress code is no shorts.

Ahhh... that sucks!

[The Blob]

I'm so happy I can wear shorts at work.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z EURO showing triple digits for PDX on Saturday now.

[TacomaWx]

Man euro is still pretty sold on the heat lasting into next week. 

[ShawniganLake]

91/59 here today.  Nice day. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

91/59 here today.  Nice day. 

Wow hotter than most places in western WA that’s surprising. 

[Meatyorologist]

lots of junebugs out due to the heat, way more than i've ever seen here before at once. they're flying under lampposts, laying dead and alive in the roads. hiding in bushes.

anyone else experiencing the same?

[GHweatherChris]

50 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I'm so happy I can wear shorts at work.

I can work naked if I want to. No joke!!

[The Blob]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

lots of junebugs out due to the heat, way more than i've ever seen here before at once. they're flying under lampposts, laying dead and alive in the roads. hiding in bushes.

anyone else experiencing the same?

I haven't seen any, but I do miss them when I was living in California and they liked to hover around the lawn mower while I was mowing.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

lots of junebugs out due to the heat, way more than i've ever seen here before at once. they're flying under lampposts, laying dead and alive in the roads. hiding in bushes.

anyone else experiencing the same?

Haven't seen a junebug in a few years out here, remember seeing them more when I lived at the coast as a kid, kinda weird.

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I can work naked if I want to. No joke!!

Amazon doesn't approve

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, The Blob said:

Amazon doesn't approve

The company I work for would never know

[smerfylicious]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Wow hotter than most places in western WA that’s surprising. 

Same temps for me. Looks like I'm lucky and I'm going to get 6 90+ in a row! 

[The Blob]

65 right now. 

[Omegaraptor]

6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Went straight to the game after work. Dress code is no shorts.

You have to make a request for shorts at my workplace and get them approved, and they have to be specific things like earth-colored as well. I’m not really bothering. Most of the strenous stuff is done before noon on hot days.

[Doinko]

Weather.com is forecasting 103 degrees for Portland today, that's what we reached in August 2021 and July 2015.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS showed hot through the weekend and then a return to around normal...

 

 

[Doinko]

It's looking possible that SLE breaks the all time July 850mb temp record if the ECMWF operational runs, EPS mean and GEFS mean verify

[TT-SEA]

14 hours ago, Phil said:

OMG Tim this’ll be like heaven for you.

45°F above average!

Luckily the 00Z EPS shows perfect temps in the 80s for our entire trip... hope it holds.   The GFS has been pretty wonky lately.    

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Got up to 86 yesterday, only down to 61 overnight, and we are already sitting at 68 IMBY.

 

I was kind of surprised to see/hear geese flying around my neighborhood this morning, I've always thought that was more of a late August/September thing.

[Meatyorologist]

Only got down to 60F here. Pretty hotttt night

[Meatyorologist]

57 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

It's looking possible that SLE breaks the all time July 850mb temp record if the ECMWF operational runs, EPS mean and GEFS mean verify

That didn't happen in June 2021??

[Meatyorologist]

Ahhhh I see. @Doiinko The SPC sounding climatology page is updated through 2019. June 2021 is not on there at all. Though it is saddening to see SLE approach or even break their old record once again the following year.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ahhhh I see. @Doiinko The SPC sounding climatology page is updated through 2019. June 2021 is not on there at all. Though it is saddening to see SLE approach or even break their old record once again the following year.

I meant for the month of July, I think they broke the all time record in June 2021 when they hit 30.4c (previous record in September 1988). The previous record for SLE in July was in July 2002 it seems, at 27.6°C. 

Actually the EPS is a bit lower than the all time record but the ECMWF operational is about the same, I was looking at Portland instead of Salem earlier.

[TT-SEA]

Did some quick math and assumed 87/62 at SEA every day for the rest of the month (might be conservative) and that would put the monthly average at 68.3 for July.

That is warmer than every July in the last decade except for 2015 and 2018.    Just crazy that a strongly developing Nina in a multi-year Nina situation produced a July on par or above Julys during the last decade of record warm summers.

And for comparison to our some of our analog summers we were talking about last month... this month will end up around 6 degrees warmer than July 1999 and 2001.     And around 3-4 degrees warmer than 2008 and 2011.  

 

[jcmcgaffey]

7 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Haven't seen a junebug in a few years out here, remember seeing them more when I lived at the coast as a kid, kinda weird.

I saw some out at the coast last week. I haven’t seen any inland for a few years. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Did some quick math and assumed 87/62 at SEA every day for the rest of the month (might be conservative) and that would put the monthly average at 68.3 for July.

That is warmer than every July in the last decade except for 2015 and 2018.    Just crazy that a strongly developing Nina in a multi-year Nina situation produced a July on par or above Julys during the last decade of record warm summers.

And for comparison to our some of our analog summers we were talking about last month... this month will end up around 6 degrees warmer than July 1999 and 2001.     And around 3-4 degrees warmer than 2008 and 2011.  

 

Yeah no one who wasn’t being a total weenie thought this summer would be anything like 1999 or 2001, not possible in our climate. And overall the summer of 2017 was absolutely on fire and that was in a multi year Nina.

[TT-SEA]

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah no one who wasn’t being a total weenie thought this summer would be anything like 1999 or 2001, not possible in our climate. And overall the summer of 2017 was absolutely on fire and that was in a multi year Nina.

Finishing July at 68.3 at SEA would put this month as the 7th warmest July in history at SEA.    Its not just different than those analog years... it will likely be a top 10 hot July.

And yet SEA is right at average now for July.   Those updated averages are quite misleading when looking at history.   In terms of actual temperatures this is warmer than 90% of Julys in SEA history since 1945.

[Skagit Weather]

When it's 70F before 8 a.m. you know it's going to be a warm day here. Did actually manage to squeak in another sub 60 low though which is always nice.

[BLI snowman]

56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Did some quick math and assumed 87/62 at SEA every day for the rest of the month (might be conservative) and that would put the monthly average at 68.3 for July.

That is warmer than every July in the last decade except for 2015 and 2018.    Just crazy that a strongly developing Nina in a multi-year Nina situation produced a July on par or above Julys during the last decade of record warm summers.

And for comparison to our some of our analog summers we were talking about last month... this month will end up around 6 degrees warmer than July 1999 and 2001.     And around 3-4 degrees warmer than 2008 and 2011.  

 

Yep, pretty jarring how much warmer our summer baseline appears to be vs. even 10-20 years ago. Again, no other season really comes close. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, pretty jarring how much warmer our summer baseline appears to be vs. even 10-20 years ago. Again, no other season really comes close. 

I was certain it would be a dry July out here in the foothills because of the unusually wet April - June period... and that has happened.   Its only rained on 4 days which is below the long term average and total rain rainfall will end up around .50 at Cedar Lake which is less than 25% of normal.   

But I was also fairly certain it would not be a warm month.    To possibly end up in the top 5 or 10 hottest Julys ever is pretty crazy.

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, pretty jarring how much warmer our summer baseline appears to be vs. even 10-20 years ago. Again, no other season really comes close. 

Got to wonder if it’s a global circulation thing that will switch up little at some point or if it’s here to stay. We haven’t really looked back since 2013.

I was the most optimistic about this summer ending up reasonable than I have been in awhile, since for the first time in years the spring strongly resembled something out of our pre-2013 climo, but it seems even that didn’t mean much.

[TT-SEA]

Side note... the Cedar Lake temperature data is glaringly wrong on many days. 

For example... it shows it was 51/48 there on the 4th of July.   It was actually in the low 70s here that day and it was sunny most of the day and sunny in the Cascades that day.   I remember it well because we drove over the pass that morning. There is literally no way the high was 51 there that day.   It was probably 71.  

Rainfall data matches up well.   But the temperatures look like they are from about 5,000 feet in elevation on many days rather than 1,500 feet.

[MossMan]

Lovely morning! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sure would be nice if we could see something even remotely dynamic on the back end of this heatwave. As it stands this event looks to be one of our more stagnant high end hot spells on record. Several consecutive days with temps on either side of 100 without any point of interest really.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

I meant for the month of July, I think they broke the all time record in June 2021 when they hit 30.4c (previous record in September 1988). The previous record for SLE in July was in July 2002 it seems, at 27.6°C. 

Actually the EPS is a bit lower than the all time record but the ECMWF operational is about the same, I was looking at Portland instead of Salem earlier.

Missed that language. I'm a doofus. Yes, this should be around all time July record territory.

Also, 30.4C. Jesus. The numbers that came out of June 2021 are just... wow. Even a year later they shock me more and more.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

I meant for the month of July, I think they broke the all time record in June 2021 when they hit 30.4c (previous record in September 1988). The previous record for SLE in July was in July 2002 it seems, at 27.6°C. 

Actually the EPS is a bit lower than the all time record but the ECMWF operational is about the same, I was looking at Portland instead of Salem earlier.

What was the previous record in September 1988?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That 103 at roseburg yesterday broke the daily record from 2018, seems like low hanging fruit for the Umpqua basin.

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 63 here…warmest low of the season (so far). 75 here at 9am +5 on this time yesterday.