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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Missed that language. I'm a doofus. Yes, this should be around all time July record territory.

Also, 30.4C. Jesus. The numbers that came out of June 2021 are just... wow. Even a year later they shock me more and more.

Yeah it's crazy to think about how anomalous that event was. And this heatwave is pretty major too. If only we can get something like that in the winter...

Unrelated but I was looking through some more historical 850mb temps. Our coldest air masses at the 850mb level since December 2013 at SLE kind of surprised me. They were February 2018 (-10.5), February 2022 (-10.1) and December 2016 (-10.1). February 2022 was actually colder than February 2011 at SLE in terms of 850mb temps.

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12Z GFS continues to show a significant cool down by Sunday and Monday.   It has been pretty consistent in that regard despite wildly different ways that it gets there on each run.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GEM keeps temps near 100 for Portland through Sunday now. GFS is still holding on to temps near 90 for that day, but doing a run to run comparison that little shortwave seems to be inching further west with each consecutive run. Might not be long before the GFs jumps on board with simply not ending the heat wave.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

GEM keeps temps near 100 for Portland through Sunday now. GFS is still holding on to temps near 90 for that day, but doing a run to run comparison that little shortwave seems to be inching further west with each consecutive run. Might not be long before the GFs jumps on board with simply not ending the heat wave.

I hope the end of the heatwave manages some good thunderstorms around the region at least

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51 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Got to wonder if it’s a global circulation thing that will switch up little at some point or if it’s here to stay. We haven’t really looked back since 2013.

I was the most optimistic about this summer ending up reasonable than I have been in awhile, since for the first time in years the spring strongly resembled something out of our pre-2013 climo, but it seems even that didn’t mean much.

If we're able to at least see a condensed gross season this year, with the late start and ideally a cool finish, then I will consider that a win.

It's practically a guarantee nowadays that we'll completely torch at least one JJAS month and midsummer in particular is getting to be a lost cause. But condensing the season into that window is much preferred to the years with 5-6 months of endless 80-85+ and dry weather. 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

If we're able to at least see a condensed gross season this year, with the late start and ideally a cool finish, then I will consider that a win.

It's practically a guarantee nowadays that we'll completely torch at least one JJAS month and midsummer in particular is getting to be a lost cause. But condensing the season into that window is much preferred to the years with 5-6 months of endless 80-85+ and dry weather. 

We have rosy memories of 2011 but even that year torched pretty hard in September.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Some 70F+ lows in the foothills, but I managed to make it down to 64, which is cooler than I expected.

Looks like PDX had the warmest valley low at 66.

Scappoose was a -10 for a low compared to Monday with the loss of the northerlies.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

We have rosy memories of 2011 but even that year torched pretty hard in September.

Yeah, and that was a more classic progression following a cold and/or wet spring like that, with midsummer remaining troughy/cool and then some more extensive ridging holding off until late summer and early fall.

Same thing happened in years like 2012, 1999, 1993, 1991, 1975, 1974 etc. 

This year's progression is a bit different with this big midsummer spike now. Makes me think we're maybe saving ourselves a little relief on the back end of the season now, but who knows. 

Edited by BLI snowman
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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, and that was a more classic progression following a cold and/or wet spring like that, with midsummer remaining troughy/cool and then some more extensive ridging holding off until late summer and early fall.

Same thing happened in years like 2012, 1999, 1993, 1991, 1975, 1974 etc. 

This year's progression is a bit different with this big midsummer spike now. Makes me think we're maybe saving ourselves a little relief on the back end of the season now, but who knows. 

August will be below the 20th century average. Book it. The August shocker.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

August will be below the 20th century average. Book it. The August shocker.

No way 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Meh this heatwave ain't all that

 

back in the mid 80s by late next week.  only 3 days 100 or over.  makes last June look like the end of the world (it felt like it)

Yeah this heatwave is lame because it’s not as impressive as our most anomalous weather event on record 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I appreciate the heat wave as it helps me mentally prepare for, and continue to insist that 95 isn't 'that bad' as I prepare to move to Arizona. I don't appreciate it being 80 degrees inside at 7:30 at night.

BTW, here's the progress on our house. Underground plumbing is in and it's all ready for pouring of the foundation. Roof tiles showed up yesterday. Brother in law has sent a lot of videos of distant lightning in the last week. Making me a bit jealous.

IMG_20220723_123014.jpg

IMG_20220725_190024.jpg

what are they going to do down there when Lake Mead goes Dead Pool?

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

Are these recent kills or leftover standing dead trees from the huge 2013-15 Doug fir die off down there?

Regardless, the lowland climate of southern oregon is becoming pretty inhospitable for firs it seems.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

I've noticed dead Ponderosa Pines around here in groups that I'm assuming were scolded last summer because they weren't brown until this year.  Ponderosa are decently heat tolerate too.

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11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what are they going to do down there when Lake Mead goes Dead Pool?

I tend to believe the financial incentive will be far to great for someone to not figure it out. Maybe that's naive of me.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Are these recent kills or leftover standing dead trees from the huge 2013-15 Doug fir die off down there?

Regardless, the lowland climate of southern oregon is becoming pretty inhospitable for firs it seems.

Probably that original die off.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

I tend to believe the financial incentive will be far to great for someone to not figure it out. Maybe that's naive of me.

I’ve read they are also doing a lot pumping from the aquifers, they have about 15-20 years worth of water.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Got to wonder if it’s a global circulation thing that will switch up little at some point or if it’s here to stay. We haven’t really looked back since 2013.

I was the most optimistic about this summer ending up reasonable than I have been in awhile, since for the first time in years the spring strongly resembled something out of our pre-2013 climo, but it seems even that didn’t mean much.

Starting to think this pattern can be traced back to the deposition of tropical AAM back in May, that subsequently worked its way out of the tropics and through the system. Same goes for the other heatwaves roasting the middle latitudes this summer.

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

Tim says they’re acclimated to hot, dry weather. Must be something else.

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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

To be fair 1983 was after a super niño which was very stormy across the SW US.

Where-as 2022 is a historic 3rd year Niña (and possibly the first time on record that the 3rd Niña will be the strongest in the sequence).

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Hmm, the 06z Euro control run finally ditched the slow cooldown idea. I think the operational euro will cave today (can’t believe I’m saying that, lol).

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