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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

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9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

79 outside and 80 in my office. Pretty sweet. 

Just hit 80 here…although in the mornings/early afternoon it usually doesn’t get too bad in my apartment and holds on to the cool air I let in overnight. Once 3-4pm hits though it gets hot fast since I’m on the west side of the building. 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Just hit 80 here…although in the mornings/early afternoon it usually doesn’t get too bad in my apartment and holds on to the cool air I let in overnight. Once 3-4pm hits though it gets hot fast since I’m on the west side of the building. 

Equilibrium. 
 

My office faces east so it’s worse in the morning on hot days. Actually cools a bit later in the day. 

4686D3BF-5C2B-4488-B265-3A5A4C209750.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm starving

Same bro. Been keto-ing at 70% basal since spring and the cravings have been torturous. 😂

But d**n it works. Am in the best physical and mental shape I’ve been in a long time.

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5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Equilibrium. 
 

My office faces east so it’s worse in the morning on hot days. Actually cools a bit later in the day. 

4686D3BF-5C2B-4488-B265-3A5A4C209750.jpeg

I’m guessing we’re probably gonna hit 92-94 today. Feels nasty outside already 81 DP 66. There’s no cooling breeze coming off the water either today. 

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43 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hmm, the 06z Euro control run finally ditched the slow cooldown idea. I think the operational euro will cave today (can’t believe I’m saying that, lol).

Nope.

12Z ECMWF is actually a little warmer than its 00Z run on Monday morning.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty fun little low level rotation off the CA coast.

Looks like its pulling monsoonal moisture westward into the Sierras.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol the mid 80s on monday would feel nice after a week of low to mid 90s being shown cool bias factored in. 

Indeed.   And it has to cool down... just looks very slow on the 12Z ECMWF like its previous runs.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Our first day in Minnesota looks rainy... then barely into the low 70s the next day on Monday.

Not too worried about the 130 degree heat that the GFS is showing.   

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Our first day in Minnesota looks rainy... then barely into the low 70s the next day on Monday.

Not too worried about the 130 degree heat that the GFS is showing.   

I’ll help out Chris and let you know that nobody cares. 

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5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I’ll help out Chris and let you know that nobody cares. 

For sure.   More for Phil because he has been trolling on our MN trip.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty typical recent midsummer progression on the Euro with energy pinching off dramatically well offshore and then very gradually meandering eastward in very disheveled form. Anyone expecting the earlier GFS/CMC solutions to verify for next week was ignoring climo.

Edited by BLI snowman
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And Springfield has hit the 90F burger!

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert Sits Atop Betting Props to Lead NFL  in Passing Yards - Sports Illustrated Los Angeles Chargers News, Analysis  and More

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12Z ECMWF does not even show marine layer clouds getting inland past Seattle for the next 10 days.    And high temps likely stay above 80 in Seattle.  

But could get a little thundery on the morning of day 10 with that little ULL moving through.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty typical recent midsummer progression on the Euro with energy pinching off dramatically well offshore and then very gradually meandering eastward in very disheveled form. Anyone expecting the earlier GFS/CMC solutions to verify for next week was ignoring climo.

Yup. The Euro holds that little piece of energy offshore pretty much the entire run which effectively keeps troughing from the north from fully breaking through. Seems like the most reasonable solution taking into account recent summer climo, sadly.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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FWIW... the EPS and control run are more aggressive with that little ULL and bring it inland by Tuesday morning.    And that would likely be a cooler pattern afterwards as well.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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EPS and control both show 75 in Seattle on Tuesday and Wednesday... which probably means upper 70s at best.  Both are warming again up by Thursday though.

Control run also shows another trough about to drop down after day 10.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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79 in Mapleton. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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86 now. Should hit 90 today, I would think.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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So the operational euro and its control run look very different at 500mb. When that’s happened in the past it’s been indicative of inconsistency and probably a low confidence solution.

Something about this pattern is tripping up the Euro suite. But I think we’ll have clarity by 00z because the operational moved closer up the EPS mean with the ULL next week (though the EPS mean itself is all over the d**n place).

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