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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

That's good to hear, maybe we can finally manage a below average one if we are lucky!

It is so much easier to get a below average summer month now at SEA.    Below average now used to be well above average.

In fact since the update last year... all it takes now to get a top 10 warm July is a +0.9 departure.   Normal is now 67.1 and last July SEA finished at 68.0 which was +0.9 and that was the 9th warmest July ever.    

This month will probably end up around +1.5 and could get into the top 5 warmest.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking at August... the average at SEA is now is 67.4 which is 2 degrees warmer than the long term average of 65.36.   August is now statistically the warmest month of the year.

Last August was just about perfectly normal using the updated averages (+0.1) and yet it was the 17th warmest August in history.  

A perfectly normal August is now warmer than about 80% of all years.  It should be very easy to achieve a below normal August.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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HQM is running +2.6 for July which is the largest departure amongst the major SEA NWS reporting stations.   Interestingly... every day has been at or above normal there this month.   Even on 7/3 when SEA had a -10 departure that day.

I assume that when HQM runs warmer than normal every day its a reflection of warmer than normal water off the coast.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

HQM is running +2.6 for July which is the largest departure amongst the major SEA NWS reporting stations.   Interestingly... every day has been at or above normal there this month.   Even on 7/3 when SEA had a -10 departure that day.

I assume that when HQM runs warmer than normal every day its a reflection of warmer than normal water off the coast.

I’m surprised the departure at SEA was only -10 on 7/3. We didn’t crack 60 here and was one of the rawest, coldest, wettest, most miserable July days I can remember. Thankfully the old adage of summer doesn’t really start until 7/5 worked out this year. Although July 4 itself was a nice day too.

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22 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Too bad they didn't tie him to a burning tree

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 00Z EPS and control run also delayed longer like the the ECMWF.   

Both also show it turning warm again in the long range. 

But the EPS mean doesn’t delay, and I think that’s what matters.

So close to finishing off this useless season. Barely dropped below 80°F again last night despite being under a trough. F**king stupid.

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5 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

I’m surprised the departure at SEA was only -10 on 7/3. We didn’t crack 60 here and was one of the rawest, coldest, wettest, most miserable July days I can remember. Thankfully the old adage of summer doesn’t really start until 7/5 worked out this year. Although July 4 itself was a nice day too.

Yeah... SEA was 58/52 on 7/3 which is an average of 55 compared to normal of 65 for the day.  

I would say summer really got started on 6/20 this year.   That is when dry days became the default and then we had the late June heat wave.   And that timing just happens to also be the beginning of astronomical summer.  There was a big exception on 7/2 and 7/3 but that was just a temporary bump in the road in the big picture.   Luckily we turned it around by the 4th.   

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Sorry for OT rant but this is getting stupid.

Skycover was 0-30% last night, no WAA, and we’re in a trough pattern. Don’t get why we can’t lose a single f**king degree between midnight and sunrise. Defies logic.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDCA&hours=72

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sorry for OT rant but this is getting stupid.

Skycover was 0-30% last night, no WAA, and we’re in a trough pattern. Don’t get why we can’t lose a single f**king degree between midnight and sunrise. Defies logic.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDCA&hours=72

I'm glad we don't have to deal with those kind of temps in the PNW, that must be very annoying to deal with in the summer. 

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7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

Emerald Ash Borer killed all of the ash trees here back in 2016. Literally all of them. Millions of snags dot the forests across the Mid-Atlantic. Haven’t seen anything like it since the American Chestnut Blight a century ago.

Every now and then you’ll find an ash tree (usually blue ash) that’s strangely resistant to the beetles, but they’re rare.

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

But the EPS mean doesn’t delay, and I think that’s what matters.

So close to finishing off this useless season. Barely dropped below 80°F again last night despite being under a trough. F**king stupid.

Winter is technically the useless season... nothing is growing and it can't really sustain life on its own.   Summer makes it possible for people to thrive at latitudes far from the equator.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sorry for OT rant but this is getting stupid.

Skycover was 0-30% last night, no WAA, and we’re in a trough pattern. Don’t get why we can’t lose a single f**king degree between midnight and sunrise. Defies logic.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDCA&hours=72

You got a crazy climate there. I don't think I've had any nights quite like that here.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I'm glad we don't have to deal with those kind of temps in the PNW, that must be very annoying to deal with in the summer. 

Makes a huge difference when there’s no relief at night and it’s right back into the low/mid 80s (or higher) after sunrise.

I’d much prefer a dry 100°F with a low in the 50s/60s. Which apparently used to happen here a century ago, but no longer does.

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4 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

You got a crazy climate there. I don't think I've had any nights quite like that here.

Probably helps that you’re not surrounded by water and are on the upslope side of the apps.

I think we do better than you in May/June for the same reason, residual cooling effect of the water. But it starts to hurt us in July, and even more in Aug/Sep.

Also the 11” of rain this month probably doesn’t help. Transpiration from biosphere is crazy rn, banks of fog have been forming in the tree canopy every evening this week.

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Unfortunately there’s basically nothing that can be done to stop Emerald Ash Borer.

Unless you want to pay for expensive injections every year (if you have a particular ash tree you want to save). Otherwise it’s a done deal.

Probably best to find the surviving/resistant ash trees and repopulate from their gene pool(s). Blue Ash is the most resistant but every species of Ash has a few isolated survivors that are resistant.

Problem is the trees don’t seem to recognize they’re under attack. Where-as the Asian Ash trees have adapted to the beetles and have figured out how to quickly mount a counterattack. American Ash trees should be capable of doing the same, so there’s hope the surviving/resistant trees can repopulate.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Probably helps that you’re not surrounded by water and are on the upslope side of the apps.

I think we do better than you in May/June for the same reason, residual cooling effect of the water. But it starts to hurt us in July, and even more in Aug/Sep.

Also the 11” of rain this month probably doesn’t help. Transpiration from biosphere is crazy rn, banks of fog have been forming in the tree canopy every evening this week.

My last fog was in June, probably that day I uploaded a picture of it. I bet we see more in September.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Emerald Ash Borer killed all of the ash trees here back in 2016. Literally all of them. Millions of snags dot the forests across the Mid-Atlantic. Haven’t seen anything like it since the American Chestnut Blight a century ago.

Every now and then you’ll find an ash tree (usually blue ash) that’s strangely resistant to the beetles, but they’re rare.

Our native ash, the Oregon Ash, is closely related to the Green Ash of eastern and central North America. Unfortunately, that is the ash species most vulnerable to the borer.

The Eastern forests have basically lost (or are in the process of losing) four entire genera of canopy trees in the last 200 years: the true chestnuts, the elms, the hemlocks, and now the ashes. All due to introduced pest species of one sort or the other.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

In the midst of an uncomfortable and dangerous and lengthy hot spell, I can assure you "I hope it doesn't drizzle soon" isn't a normal thought.

I don’t want it to drizzle…I want a full out all day rain event. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Running about 4 degrees cooler than yesterday so far. Sweet relief!

Was 80 degrees downstairs when I went up to bed last night.

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Our native ash, the Oregon Ash, is closely related to the Green Ash of eastern and central North America. Unfortunately, that is the ash species most vulnerable to the borer.

The Eastern forests have basically lost (or are in the process of losing) four entire genera of canopy trees in the last 200 years: the true chestnuts, the elms, the hemlocks, and now the ashes. All due to introduced pest species of one sort or the other.

Certainly true for Ashes and Chestnuts.

Elms it more mixed and depends on the species. Slippery Elm is doing fine. We have 2 of them on our property and they’re very healthy. American Elm is more susceptible to Dutch Elm Disease, but it doesn’t seem to affect all trees equally.

Hemlock also a mixed bag w/rt insect damage, though it’s not really a canopy tree around these parts anyway. Most of the declines are in areas with large stands of hemlock a bit farther north, where-as they’re more of an isolated understory tree here.

One concerning development I’ve noticed in recent years is the rapid decline of Oaks, especially Red Oak. Mostly mature individuals. Starts with crown dieback then spreads through the tree. Not sure what’s causing it but it’s very widespread. Willow Oak and White Oak seem to be fine, but Northern/Southern Red Oak and Black Oak are struggling.

Through all this, Tulip Poplar has clearly emerged as the dominant hardwood (and dominant tree overall) Pretty much the only species that has improved in numbers/health since the 1980s.

Something like 50% of all mature trees around here are now Tulip Poplar, as they seem to weather both storms and disease better than other species.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Looking at August... the average at SEA is now is 67.4 which is 2 degrees warmer than the long term average of 65.36.   August is now statistically the warmest month of the year.

Last August was just about perfectly normal using the updated averages (+0.1) and yet it was the 17th warmest August in history.  

A perfectly normal August is now warmer than about 80% of all years.  It should be very easy to achieve a below normal August.    

Yes since our summers are all normally distributed and random, not on a long term rise or anything 

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17 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Portland area looks like it's running even with yesterday.

It has been impressive this week that with the hot atmosphere the suburbs have been able to drop into the low-mid 60s. 

It’s definitely been interesting here too it’s been getting down into the low 60s every morning and actually cooling off decently overnight here. Of course that’s not everywhere in western WA but I thought we would be in the mid 60s in the mornings. 

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