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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt.  I think that if (God forbid) it gets hot again in August it will crash hard again after that one too.

The crash is hardly the story here.    Its the extended nature of this warm spell.    And probably going to be repeated in August.

Do you realize we are on pace for a top 5 hot July right now at SEA?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sadly, I think it's the new normal.

I doubt it.  A region wide Arctic event should still be doable.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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103 at KLMT, and their fourth consecutive day over 100.. 

Daily record of 98 broken from 1988. Third day in a row to match or break records. The other two are from 1911.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

103 at KLMT, and their fourth consecutive day over 100.. 

Daily record of 98 broken from 1988. Third day in a row to match or break records. The other two are from 1911.

And what's with the whole 1 degree higher each day thing.. its like a secret message.

99, 100, 101, 102, 103..

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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This is certainly an oddball heatwave.  Looks like no day will be super hot for Seattle and yet the duration of 90+ days will probably be unprecedented.  Almost any other truly notable heatwave would have featured hotter temps than we have seen...at least around here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This is certainly an oddball heatwave.  Looks like no day will be super hot for Seattle and yet the duration of 90+ days will probably be unprecedented.  Almost any other truly notable heatwave would have featured hotter temps than we have seen...at least around here.

Very 2015-like.  

And we did have 3 crashes in August of 2015... all with rain.   

What is really odd is having a very Nino like summer in the middle of multi-year Nina with the Nina strengthening all summer.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is certainly an oddball heatwave.  Looks like no day will be super hot for Seattle and yet the duration of 90+ days will probably be unprecedented.  Almost any other truly notable heatwave would have featured hotter temps than we have seen...at least around here.

Yeah we have had 4 +90s consecutively but our max so far is 92.  We will see about tomorrow but I don’t think we will exceed 92 on Saturday or Sunday here. Figured we would be atleast 93 today but only 90 here 

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For clarification... we had highs in the 60s on August 4, 15, 16, 30, 31 in the torrid summer of 2015 in the Snoqualmie Valley.   And it rained on all those days.    And it was a top 5 wet August at SEA.    And it was still a hot summer.   Crashes always happen.  

This feels like a Nino summer.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No doubt that block over the GOA next week is shaping up to be exceptional for this time of year.  Can't wait to see how the details play out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

TONGA

Usually volcanoes cause cooling.  I think this was going to happen either way.  Other than this week it has been a pretty enjoyable summer....after the gloom finally shut off.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very 2015-like.  

And we did have 3 crashes in August of 2015... all with rain.   

What is really odd is having a very Nino like summer in the middle of multi-year Nina with the Nina strengthening all summer.  

That was surprisingly one of the cooler Augusts in the last 10 years at KLMT. 2017 and 2016 had warmer Augusts. Of course though if June and July both torch, you still end up with a hot summer if August averages out close to normal.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

That was surprisingly one of the cooler Augusts in the last 10 years at KLMT. 2017 and 2016 had warmer Augusts. Of course though if June and July both torch, you still end up with a hot summer if August averages out close to normal.

We need 10 days straight of high temps at 20 degrees to match this heat. 

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Lawn update. 

4D711FCE-3F1C-44E8-AE51-798738C55BE8.jpeg

Looks like parts of Iowa right now. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Usually volcanoes cause cooling.  I think this was going to happen either way.  Other than this week it has been a pretty enjoyable summer....after the gloom finally shut off.

SO2 causes global cooling.   Tonga was almost all water vapor and stratospheric water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas   I am no expert... but I bet in a couple years there will be enough data to support a distinct warming effect from Tonga.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some really bad takes on here today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Other than this week it has been a pretty enjoyable summer....after the gloom finally shut off.

I am liking the new Jim.

Likely a top 5 hottest July ever at SEA and you think its been an enjoyable summer.   You have evolved and come to the dark side.  😁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Looks like parts of Iowa right now. 

Pretty typical PNW summertime lawn color. I skipped the half-assed attempt to water it this year and I think it actually looks better than it has in the past. 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SO2 causes global cooling.   Tonga was almost all water vapor and stratospheric water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas   I am no expert... but I bet in a couple years there will be enough data to support a distinct warming effect from Tonga.

Declaring warming from a volcanic eruption years in advance is peak Tim

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For clarification... we had highs in the 60s on August 4, 15, 16, 30, 31 in the torrid summer of 2015 in the Snoqualmie Valley.   And it rained on all those days.    And it was a top 5 wet August at SEA.    And it was still a hot summer.   Crashes always happen.  

This feels like a Nino summer.   

We talked about this a couple weeks ago but ENSO state hasn't seemed to make any difference for our summer weather in the last decade. Last summer was also a Nina and it torched, and 2019 was a Nino (albeit weak) and was our coolest summer since 2012. And as Jesse pointed out winter '18-'19 was a very strange progression for a Nino. Weird stuff.

I also saw this tweet from wxstatman:

 

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9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Pretty typical PNW summertime lawn color. I skipped the half-assed attempt to water it this year and I think it actually looks better than it has in the past. 

This is the first place I've ever lived where people don't water their grass. Nature does that for us in the summer and it's still warm. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Declaring warming from a volcanic eruption years in advance is peak Tim

Declaring?   Or making a guess?   Because I see lots of crazy wishcasts on here for cold all the time.   Months and years in advance!

I have a pretty strong feeling about this one.   Might have to save this post for posterity.  😀

But it's just a guess and I did not declare anything as fact.   If the tables were turned and it was a cold summer there would be endless volcanic summer talk on here... also with nothing to support it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, James Jones said:

We talked about this a couple weeks ago but ENSO state hasn't seemed to make any difference for our summer weather in the last decade. Last summer was also a Nina and it torched, and 2019 was a Nino (albeit weak) and was our coolest summer since 2012. And as Jesse pointed out winter '18-'19 was a very strange progression for a Nino. Weird stuff.

I also saw this tweet from wxstatman:

 

Pretty crazy.

I went into this summer fully expecting a payback year like a 1999 or 2001.     And we are getting something that feels closer to 2015, 2017, 2018.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

  • Like 6

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Not really.   I just post lots of stats.   I said many times that we were probably going to be rewarded nicely for that extended and record breaking rainy spell this spring.   

Ya ok Tim, lol, we all saw it the way it happened, not the way your tried to perceive it happened.  Whatever, it is expected anyways.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

2019 is probably the best we can do nowadays for cool/wet summers and it wasn’t even really a cool summer. Did enjoy it though. 

Even despite my AGW doomposting (valid arguments tho), I disagree. That summer was rife with SW'ly flow. Ended up on the warm, humid side of troughs a lot. I think the actual bottom as it stands now is somewhere between 1993 and 1999, in the absolute best case scenario. Northern Scandinavia is seeing similar anomalies this year.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

Maybe.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

This.

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Some tradage was had.

Some pitchage, if you will.

Down 0-9 in Houston meanwhile

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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