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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Unfortunately, history tells us the SW drought may just be getting started.

Very true if you go back far enough. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Unfortunately, history tells us the SW drought may just be getting started.

Possible. But I’d say it’s more likely a decadal thing. We’ll see! Or at least most, okay maybe some of us will! Or our kids will if they take really good care of themselves!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Unfortunately, history tells us the SW drought may just be getting started.

Depends on the timescale you look at.

Even during the medieval megadrought (which was of much greater amplitude and extent than anything observed in the modern era) the cycles of drought tended to last 20yrs or so, then relax for decade before coming back again.

Same was true of the early/middle 20th century which saw a roughly 20yr cycle of extreme drought in the SW US. Current cycle is roughly 15yrs long and is probably peaking now, a healthy El Niño is looming in 1 or 2 years.

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Lovely dusk! 68. 
I know most of you are absolutely dreading this and cannot wait for 42 degree drizzle again and that is fantastic! However I am soaking up every second of this weather because it’s almost over for another 10 months. 

2ECB3E13-7F93-4795-BA34-764DEEB7767C.jpeg

963C9729-0385-49EB-AE87-B304779EDFF0.jpeg

27FE57ED-2321-4C65-AC18-0A539640E25E.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Portland might be flirting with 100 on two consecutive weekends coming up.

Based on what? One goofy GFS run?

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

Summer 2001 was cooler than all but 2 summers since 1960 at OLM. That's an exceptional comparison.

Summers 2010 and 2011 were both easily below the long term normal at OLM.

A forum for the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Based on what? One goofy GFS run?

It's been a trend in the models to rebuild ridging in some manner.   Gaining traction now.    I will bookmark this post for next weekend.    You aren't doing too well on your predictions lately.    

Somehow we are ending up with one of the warmest Julys in history.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

It's been a trend in the models to rebuild ridging in some manner.   Gaining traction now.    I will bookmark this post for next weekend.    You are doing too well on your predictions lately.    

Somehow we are ending with one of the warmest Julys in history.

Not a single EPS member takes PDX above 100 next weekend.

Sit the hell down.

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Possible. But I’d say it’s more likely a decadal thing. We’ll see! Or at least most, okay maybe some of us will! Or our kids will if they take really good care of themselves!

I'm in SW Colorado currently (the Southwest) and we got DUMPED on with monsoonal rains today. Looking up!

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SO2 causes global cooling.   Tonga was almost all water vapor and stratospheric water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas   I am no expert... but I bet in a couple years there will be enough data to support a distinct warming effect from Tonga.

This is what many scientists are saying. It's rare for a volcanic eruption to cause global warming, but the Tonga eruption was pretty much unprecedented with the amount of water blasted into the stratosphere. I read that the amount of water vapor up there has increased by around 20% and will take 5-10 years to return to normal. Water vapor absorbs UV and as a result warms the atmosphere. I'd find a link to the article, but it seems like this is now a mobile phone only website and that's a major pain in the asss.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends on the timescale you look at.

Even during the medieval megadrought (which was of much greater amplitude and extent than anything observed in the modern era) the cycles of drought tended to last 20yrs or so, then relax for decade before coming back again.

Same was true of the early/middle 20th century which saw a roughly 20yr cycle of extreme drought in the SW US. Current cycle is roughly 15yrs long and is probably peaking now, a healthy El Niño is looming in 1 or 2 years.

Could be. Hope you're right.

A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Have another beer. 

I’m drinking vodka & diet coke tonight. Beer is overrated.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not a single EPS member takes PDX above 100 next weekend.

Sit the hell down.

I said flirting with 100.  

But yeah... we can't buy a warm day this summer.   Portland was only at 90+ degrees on about 40% of the days in July.   Weak sauce.

Anywhoooo... this might be fun to bump in a few days.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Could be. Hope you're right.

I want a niño so bad I could cry. Haven’t had a healthy event since 2016.

But we’re about as far away from a niño right now as we’ve ever been since WWII. Not exaggerating at all. Literally everything about the present system state is as La Niña favorable as I’ve ever seen in my life.

Going to be a monster one this winter. And another western US focused winter coming up.

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

The last truly normal summer was probably 2007. All of them since then has had some range outside of averages.

Summers that run means 2-3 degrees below average aren't normal and were cold back then. You could barely even differentiate climates on either side of the cascades in 2011. I would say having a cold summer is less likely now but you may see a few 2007-2008 type summers in the future.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I said flirting with 100.  

But yeah... we can't buy a warm day this summer.   Portland was only at 90+ degrees on about 40% of the days in July.   Weak sauce.

Anywhoooo... this might be fun to bump in a few days.  

There are sooo many angst-laden Tim posts I could bump if I were a less magnanimous guy. Just saying.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I want a niño so bad I could cry. Haven’t had a healthy event since 2016.

But we’re about as far away from a niño right now as we’ve ever been since WWII. Not exaggerating at all. Literally everything about the present system state is as La Niña favorable as I’ve ever seen in my life.

Going to be a monster one this winter. And another western US focused winter coming up.

We’re 33z.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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14 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That little ULL becomes a permanent feature off our coast on the 0z GEM

 

 

Yeah... even the GEM shows mid 90s in Portland next weekend and its been running 3-5 degrees too cool this week.  

Last night it showed 86 at SEA today... actual high was 95.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I did try it. When I was 15

Go back to it. Beer is godawful for your health.

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2 minutes ago, Dave said:

88 degrees at 10pm. I feel like I'm in Phil's backyard. 

You’re warmer than me!

72 and pea soup fog here. But temp is warming instead of cooling again. 😭

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

There are sooo many angst-laden Tim posts I could bump if I were a less magnanimous guy. Just saying.

I could bump many posts about a chilly second half of July if I were a less magnanimous guy.    😀

I conceited early on that this would likely be a serious payback summer... like 1999 or 2001 or worse.    That is what happens when a Nina is exploding in the warm season.   Right?    This summer has been pretty much the complete opposite at this point.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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