On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Dude.. f this. 

Phil said the second half of July would be cool... and now he is saying the same for the first half of August.    It's all good.  It will stay cool.

[Cloud]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Phil said the second half of July would cool... and now he is saying the same for the first half of August.    It's a good.  It will stay cool.

Also right on queue with Jim's prediction of a troughy week 2. Horray!

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Not a box fan!!

Sorry…had one too many Captain and Dews…

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thank you. July isn’t over yet and we’re already making far reaching statements about the summer.

Let’s see where we’re at after another 3 weeks. Narrative might be quite different by then.

The mid-August heatwave last year was pretty hot and it ran good departures, but then the month averaged out to less than 1 degree from normal at KLMT with those last two weeks. 

[Dave]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Key paragraphs here:

But the actual effects on climate will likely take time to understand, says Allegra LeGrande, a physical research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies who was not involved with the work. “I don’t think there is a consensus about what the overall impact will be.”

High above Earth, the water will likely react with other chemicals, potentially degrading the ozone layer that protects us from ultraviolet light, and even changing the circulation of air currents that govern weather patterns.

Yep. This eruption was extremely unusual. We won't know the effects at all for several years and no one knows shitt right now. Should be interesting to look back on down the road. 

[Phil]

Holy outlier batman.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Portland tied Phoenix for the high today. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Also right on queue with Jim's prediction of a troughy week 2. Horray!

We are experiencing a top tier hot July and Jim says its been a great summer after the rain stopped in June.    I never imagined Jim saying a top tier hot summer month was enjoyable.   But here we are.  

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Not a box fan!!

Neither was Detective Mills.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Well someone's in the trolling mood tonight!

I trolled him pretty good earlier today…

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy outlier batman.

Good forward one day on the GEFS drunky.  

Growing consensus it will turn warm again next weekend.

 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil said the second half of July would be cool... and now he is saying the same for the first half of August.    It's all good.  It will stay cool.

I’m sure this sounds braggadocios, but hell, I can be accurate for months on end and call ENSO events years in advance, but if I miss one intraseasonal cycle by 2 weeks I get raked over the coals for it.

This isn’t easy to do. I work my arse off at it. Comments like this actually do irritate me for real.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good forward one day on the GEFS drunky.  

Growing consensus it will turn warm again next weekend.

 

Yeah? Now look at the GFS operational at that same timestamp.

Not even remotely close.

[Cloud]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that ain’t happening.

Bruh.. I don't even know why I'm taking this troll bait but the GFS literally predicted this long duration heatwave like almost a week out... while at the same time you and Jim mocked its surface temps output. Unless you can show me some marine influence.. I'll take what the GFS is giving. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Bruh.. I don't even know why I'm taking this troll bait but the GFS literally predicted this long duration heatwave like almost a week out... while at the same time you and Jim mocked its surface temps output. Unless you can show me some marine influence.. I'll take what the GFS is giving. 

Exactly this... well said.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Bruh.. I don't even know why I'm taking this troll bait but the GFS literally predicted this long duration heatwave like almost a week out... while at the same time you and Jim mocked its surface temps output. Unless you can show me some marine influence.. I'll take what the GFS is giving. 

And how many false heatwaves did it predict over the last 4+ months? I’ve archived all of them. Broken clock is right twice a day.

Don’t have to take my word for it, just look at the D5+ z500 skill scores. The GFS is not a good model.

[BLI snowman]

45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phil is grumpy tonight! 

Busted Forecast Blues

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Exactly this... well said.

Tell me you know nothing about statistical analysis without telling me you know nothing about statistical analysis.

#EuroNailedSandy Amirite?

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m sure this sounds braggadocios, but hell, I can be accurate for months on end and call ENSO events years in advance, but if I miss one intraseasonal cycle by 2 weeks I get raked over the coals for it.

This isn’t easy to do. I work my arse off at it. Comments like this actually do irritate me for real.

Yeah... you do great on ENSO stuff.     But this is second summer in a row in which we are sweltering in heat during a period you repeatedly said would be cool.     The heat is pretty much top of mind for everyone on here in the PNW right now and they are going to bring up forecasts when they bust so badly.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

And how many false heatwaves did it predict over the last 4+ months? Broken clock is right twice a day.

Don’t have to take my word for it, just look at the D5+ z500 skill scores. The GFS is not a good model.

^^Facts are stubborn sons of b*tches.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

And how many false heatwaves did it predict over the last 4+ months? I’ve archived all of them. Broken clock is right twice a day.

Don’t have to take my word for it, just look at the D5+ z500 skill scores. The GFS is not a good model.

 

[Deweydog]

This is some good sh*t.

[Doinko]

21 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

The mid-August heatwave last year was pretty hot and it ran good departures, but then the month averaged out to less than 1 degree from normal at KLMT with those last two weeks. 

Portland hit 103 with the August heatwave, and apparently Bellingham set their all time record with that? 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... you do great on ENSO stuff.     But this is second summer in a row in which we are sweltering in heat during a period you repeatedly said would be cool.     The heat is pretty much top of mind for everyone on here in the PNW right now and they are going to bring up forecasts when they bust so badly.

Try to forecast long range at intraseasonal timescales and see how well you do.

Easy to talk s**t when you’re in the stands and not on the field. News flash: it’s a science still in its embryonic stages and accuracy is hard to come by on higher frequency timeframes at-range.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

This is some good sh*t.

Last summer it was greatest heat wave of all time... this year its likely the longest heat wave in history.   And Phil did not see either coming.     Those are big memorable events to miss.   

 

 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Try to forecast long range at intraseasonal timescales and see how well you do.

Easy to talk s**t when you’re in the stands and not on the field. News flash: it’s a science still in its embryonic stages and accuracy is hard to come by on higher frequency timeframes at-range.

Yeah... its hard.   And you do great on the big picture things.    

I need to get to bed.   Going to miss the ECMWF.    We have lots of driving to do tomorrow.   

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last summer it was greatest heat wave of all time... this year its likely the longest heat wave in history.   And Phil did not see either coming.     Those are big memorable events to miss.   

 

 

Man I regret all the times I felt bad for you and didn’t pile on.

Never again.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its hard.   And you do great on the big picture things.    

I need to get to bed.   Going to miss the ECMWF.    We have lots of driving to do tomorrow.   

Safe travels!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Portland might be flirting with 100 on two consecutive weekends coming up.

GFS gets hot again next weekend. Maybe more offshore flow this time around. The GEM has the low closer to the Coast but still gets hot for you folks up there, cooler down here. Will be interesting to see what the EURO shows tonight. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you forecast a hot PNW summer you will be right 100% of the time!

[Phil]

I’m sure I’ll be lol’ing at this when I wake up tomorrow. It must be pretty bad since I can already sense the cringe.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

31 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Portland tied Phoenix for the high today. 

Phoenix had mostly cloudy skies most of the day.

[Deweydog]

Responses to the latest ECMWF will not be positive.

[HoodCanalBridge]

Large new fire south of the Oregon border east of Scott Bar, CA.  Putting up a 30,000 plume top at night, not good.

red flag warnings in the area and some poor fire weather coming tomorrow.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z EURO is showing very cold anomalies for this time of year on Wednesday. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Also into Thursday.

[MossMan]

65! Feels great! 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I said flirting with 100.  

But yeah... we can't buy a warm day this summer.   Portland was only at 90+ degrees on about 40% of the days in July.   Weak sauce.

Anywhoooo... this might be fun to bump in a few days.  

Euro says maybe around 90.  But probably not 100

[LowerGarfield]

7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hi, this is Andrew's daughter Lexi. You people are weird. 

Don't worry, we already knew that.