On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Kayla]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Need to root for Yellowstone to blow at this point.

It’d go right along with your blown forecast.

[Phishy Wx]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Need to root for Yellowstone to blow at this point.

Ain't Skeered!

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It’d go right along with your blown forecast.

The good thing is he predicted a hot late summer so it’ll probably actually be cool now. 

[weatherfan2012]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Excited for the east coast?  Is he still predicting a Nino?

If you can beleave it yes he says the La nina talk is BS lol your have to ask him why he is so gun ho on weak El nino on his face book page or Twitter and so against the La nina.Im sure many are wanting to know his answer to that especially giving he one of the major old school pro mets out there.

[snow_wizard]

Pleasant surprise with how cool it is today.  Only 77 at SEA at 3PM.  I wonder if the GFS projection of 87 will bust today? 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said:

If you can beleave it yes he says the La nina talk is BS lol your have to ask him why he is so gun ho on weak El nino on his face book page or Twitter and so against the La nina.Im sure many are wanting to know his answer to that especially giving he one of the major old school pro mets out there.

The guy is smoking some good shit I'm thinking. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

"Maximum temperature reached during Summers of 1934 and 1936 across the United States (48-states) and so far in 2022. https://t.co/8r62auls9t"

From Maeu. Don't know how to make a tweet show up here.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Meatyorologist]

Super underperformance so far. Did not expect it. I was wrong I guess 🫤

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, JBolin said:

For all the flack you receive year after year Jim, your optimism going into any given winter is nice to see. 

Disregard your "detractors", (ahem) and keep that vibe going my man. 

We are on a pretty good roll for decent winters, and the deck is stacked as good as it can be for this one.  We are actually seeing 4 pretty distinct seasons in recent years.  I will say when a Nino finally comes that winter will probably be a turd sandwich.

[Meatyorologist]

7 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

I know your serious too! This past year I was brave man and began doing some of these meet ups in the hiking community.  This is a tough one for me as my hearing is failing.  Failing hearing does not work well in social gatherings….lol!  But regardless I just tell the group upfront your going to have to deal with me.  Some voices come in loud and clear while others I struggle. Anyhow, I can see myself playing golf or hiking with some of you! Even that beer might very well happen! 
 

looks nice outside
 

Anthony and I became friends on Twitter. We've storm chased together a couple times now. You can find very like minded and well adjusted people if you search hard enough.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

"Maximum temperature reached during Summers of 1934 and 1936 across the United States (48-states) and so far in 2022. https://t.co/8r62auls9t"

From Maeu. Don't know how to make a tweet show up here.

Well isn't that interesting....

What would the global warming people have said in the 1930s?  I'm sure they would have said life as we know it would be gone before the 21st century.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Anthony and I became friends on Twitter. We've storm chased together a couple times now. You can find very like minded and well adjusted people if you search hard enough.

Are you talking about local storm chasing?  In the late 1990s I was living in Woodinville and I chased a ridiculous hail / thunderstorm once.  It was pounding so hard most people on the road pulled over to wait it out.  One of the few cases I can remember where significant hail damage to cars occurred in this area and there was hail induced ground fog afterward.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Super underperformance so far. Did not expect it. I was wrong I guess 🫤

Let's hope the models are this off for next week on surface temps.  Even the ECMWF was high today.

[Deweydog]

18z coming in a TOUCH cooler than the 12z!

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

"Maximum temperature reached during Summers of 1934 and 1936 across the United States (48-states) and so far in 2022. https://t.co/8r62auls9t"

From Maeu. Don't know how to make a tweet show up here.

No doubt the dustbowl era was next level. And there’s a decent chance global temperatures were warmer in the 30s/40s than advertised by surface datasets.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS is a little cooler.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

The NH needs winter to start ASAP. Basically everyone in the middle latitudes is torching right now.

Maybe we'll see the flip side in the winter ala 1962-63 or 1978-79.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Are you talking about local storm chasing?  In the late 1990s I was living in Woodinville and I chased a ridiculous hail / thunderstorm once.  It was pounding so hard most people on the road pulled over to wait it out.  One of the few cases I can remember where significant hail damage to cars occurred in this area and there was hail induced ground fog afterward.

Yes, once on the westside and once on the eastside.

Your advendure sounded incredible. Any estimate on the hail size? We can get lots of little chunks but rarely do we see large hail in this area. Biggest I've seen was at my house in October 2020. The tail end of a PSCZ ripped through with loud CG's and marble sized hail.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

No doubt the dustbowl era was next level. And there’s a decent chance global temperatures were warmer in the 30s/40s than advertised by surface datasets.

The period 1938 through 1945 was horrible here for sure.  One of the lamest stretches for winter on record.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm feeling like this won't be a horrendous heatwave but more like consistent 90F+ days in late July and early August that can happen to this level in the current climate state, especially as we get into the dog days.

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

"Maximum temperature reached during Summers of 1934 and 1936 across the United States (48-states) and so far in 2022. https://t.co/8r62auls9t"

From Maeu. Don't know how to make a tweet show up here.

dude is a climate change denying rube.  blocked me a few years ago on Twitter when I called out his nonsense.  Trump tried to appoint him to lead NOAA I think

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/21/noaa-chief-scientist-maue/

Maue serves as the developer of weathermodels.com, a site that displays computer model information using eye-catching graphics to make their simulations accessible to professionals and hobbyists. He was previously an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank that was involved in efforts to question the scientific consensus on human-induced climate change.

Along with Patrick Michaels, a well-known climate change contrarian, Maue penned a 2018 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal challenging the climate change projections made in 1988 by noted former NASA scientist James Hansen, which other researchers, backed up by peer-reviewed studies, have found were prescient.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yes, once on the westside and once on the eastside.

Your advendure sounded incredible. Any estimate on the hail size? We can get lots of little chunks but rarely do we see large hail in this area. Biggest I've seen was at my house in October 2020. The tail end of a PSCZ ripped through with loud CG's and marble sized hail.

It was probably marble sized with a few large marbles mixed in.  The intensity was insane though.  Pretty much deafening in my car.

[GobBluth]

18z looks very slightly cooler through Wednesday.

[Deweydog]

18z running cooler.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

dude is a climate change denying rube.  blocked me a few years ago on Twitter when I called out his nonsense.  Trump tried to appoint him to lead NOAA I think

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/21/noaa-chief-scientist-maue/

Maue serves as the developer of weathermodels.com, a site that displays computer model information using eye-catching graphics to make their simulations accessible to professionals and hobbyists. He was previously an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank that was involved in efforts to question the scientific consensus on human-induced climate change.

Along with Patrick Michaels, a well-known climate change contrarian, Maue penned a 2018 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal challenging the climate change projections made in 1988 by noted former NASA scientist James Hansen, which other researchers, backed up by peer-reviewed studies, have found were prescient.

Fascinating.  I found out Ed Berry is a human caused climate change denier also.  He is a well respected atmospheric research scientist, who we used to discuss on here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

About a degree cooler here. GFS looks mostly the same but the north valley is much cooler than on the EC. Which one caves?

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

dude a climate change denying rube.  blocked me a few years ago on Twitter when I called out his nonsense.  Trump tried to appoint him to lead NOAA I think

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/21/noaa-chief-scientist-maue/

Maue serves as the developer of weathermodels.com, a site that displays computer model information using eye-catching graphics to make their simulations accessible to professionals and hobbyists. He was previously an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank that was involved in efforts to question the scientific consensus on human-induced climate change.

Along with Patrick Michaels, a well-known climate change contrarian, Maue penned a 2018 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal challenging the climate change projections made in 1988 by noted former NASA scientist James Hansen, which other researchers, backed up by peer-reviewed studies, have found were prescient.

That is certified temperature data, though.

And James Hansen’s predictions were a crock of s**t. That’s not even debatable.

The “consensus” you reference is simply that increasing GHG concentrations, driven by anthropogenic emissions, is warming the climate. Which every climate scientist would agree with.

The question is, to what extent? And how much will the climate system warm? There is no “consensus” on that. Or climate sensitivity, transient response, etc. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either lying or doesn’t know what the hell they’re talking about.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Lengthy stretch of 90F+ on the GFS but that's it for now. Much better than the EC.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

dude is a climate change denying rube.  blocked me a few years ago on Twitter when I called out his nonsense.  Trump tried to appoint him to lead NOAA I think

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/21/noaa-chief-scientist-maue/

Maue serves as the developer of weathermodels.com, a site that displays computer model information using eye-catching graphics to make their simulations accessible to professionals and hobbyists. He was previously an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank that was involved in efforts to question the scientific consensus on human-induced climate change.

Along with Patrick Michaels, a well-known climate change contrarian, Maue penned a 2018 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal challenging the climate change projections made in 1988 by noted former NASA scientist James Hansen, which other researchers, backed up by peer-reviewed studies, have found were prescient.

There's a difference between climate change and man caused climate change.  The thing is man caused is unprovable.  No doubt the climate is changing...at least in part due to bounce back from the little ice age.

[MossMan]

I heard there was a rumor that the 18z came in cooler? 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There's a difference between climate change and man caused climate change.  The thing is man caused is unprovable.  No doubt the climate is changing...at least in part due to bounce back from the little ice age.

what do you mean unprovable? what about the steady increase in carbon in the atmosphere since the industrial age started? Ice core samples from greenland and antarctica show that.  Spewing carbon into the atmosphere with no abandon is certainly contributing.  It may not be the only cause, but it's certainly influential, imo 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Can we please take the political agendas and opinions on why the climate is changing to the appropriate topic?

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I heard there was a rumor that the 18z came in cooler? 

10-14 inches of snow in Arlington. Mid 90s elsewhere. 

[NWbyNW]

Yesterday I posted a full week forecast for GFS of the PNW, and it shows way cooler than the horror stories I keep seeing being posted.  I'm not sure why everyone is trusting Euro here.  GFS has been more accurate this summer in my experience.  

Runs today are even cooler than yesterday by roughly a degree.  The hottest day for Portland is high 90s.  Hottest day for Seattle is 90F with 80s up north.

 

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Yesterday I posted a full week forecast for GFS of the PNW, and it shows way cooler than the horror stories I keep seeing being posted.  I'm not sure why everyone is trusting Euro here.  GFS has been more accurate this summer in my experience.  

Runs today are even cooler than yesterday by roughly a degree.  

Every degree counts right now 

[BLI snowman]

 

9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

10-14 inches of snow in Arlington. Mid 90s elsewhere. 

Looks like 33F slop for Randy though with a healthy dose of convergence zone drizzle both before and afterwards.

[BLI snowman]

2nd great 18z run in a row.

[snow_wizard]

GFS shows definite SW wind onshore flow next Friday.  A sure heat buster if it's right.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what do you mean unprovable? what about the steady increase in carbon in the atmosphere since the industrial age started? Ice core samples from greenland and antarctica show that.  Spewing carbon into the atmosphere with no abandon is certainly contributing.  It may not be the only cause, but it's certainly influential, imo 

I just meant you can't prove for sure the weather would be any different right now if there were no people on the Earth.  No way to know what ways Mother Nature might have to deal with increased CO2 that we don't know about.  

[NWbyNW]

Here are some new 10-day forecasts based off the GFS for select Washington cities.  Temps look reasonable.  Tacoma is the hot spot in the Puget Sound for sure with a high as hot as 96F.  The heat will be lasting longer than we are used too, but there is relief if you head north.  Everett is cooler, and if you head to Skagit County, parts of the county will be in the low 70s to high 60s on some days.  Just be glad you aren't in Kennewick (Tri-Cities).  Look how many 100 plus days in a row they got.  They are 102F today. I didn't include Spokane here, but their hot days will be on Thursday-Friday with temps over 100F.