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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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  • Longtimer
20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

August will be below the 20th century average. Book it. The August shocker.

No way 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Meh this heatwave ain't all that

 

back in the mid 80s by late next week.  only 3 days 100 or over.  makes last June look like the end of the world (it felt like it)

Yeah this heatwave is lame because it’s not as impressive as our most anomalous weather event on record 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
Just now, TacomaWx said:

currently 79 here…current temps in the Seattle area. 
BLI-79

PAE-75

BFI-79

SEA-81

Tacoma Narrows-79

OLM-79

Crazy to see SEA two degrees warmer than PDX on the hour.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I appreciate the heat wave as it helps me mentally prepare for, and continue to insist that 95 isn't 'that bad' as I prepare to move to Arizona. I don't appreciate it being 80 degrees inside at 7:30 at night.

BTW, here's the progress on our house. Underground plumbing is in and it's all ready for pouring of the foundation. Roof tiles showed up yesterday. Brother in law has sent a lot of videos of distant lightning in the last week. Making me a bit jealous.

IMG_20220723_123014.jpg

IMG_20220725_190024.jpg

what are they going to do down there when Lake Mead goes Dead Pool?

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

Are these recent kills or leftover standing dead trees from the huge 2013-15 Doug fir die off down there?

Regardless, the lowland climate of southern oregon is becoming pretty inhospitable for firs it seems.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

I've noticed dead Ponderosa Pines around here in groups that I'm assuming were scolded last summer because they weren't brown until this year.  Ponderosa are decently heat tolerate too.

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Crazy to see SEA two degrees warmer than PDX on the hour.

Temps were 10-15 degrees cooler up here yesterday compared to down in the willamette valley but it’ll probably be a lot closer today. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what are they going to do down there when Lake Mead goes Dead Pool?

I tend to believe the financial incentive will be far to great for someone to not figure it out. Maybe that's naive of me.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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  • Longtimer
10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Are these recent kills or leftover standing dead trees from the huge 2013-15 Doug fir die off down there?

Regardless, the lowland climate of southern oregon is becoming pretty inhospitable for firs it seems.

Probably that original die off.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

I tend to believe the financial incentive will be far to great for someone to not figure it out. Maybe that's naive of me.

I’ve read they are also doing a lot pumping from the aquifers, they have about 15-20 years worth of water.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ve read they are also doing a lot pumping from the aquifers, they have about 15-20 years worth of water.

going need a string of El Nino's for starters and extreme conservation

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Got to wonder if it’s a global circulation thing that will switch up little at some point or if it’s here to stay. We haven’t really looked back since 2013.

I was the most optimistic about this summer ending up reasonable than I have been in awhile, since for the first time in years the spring strongly resembled something out of our pre-2013 climo, but it seems even that didn’t mean much.

Starting to think this pattern can be traced back to the deposition of tropical AAM back in May, that subsequently worked its way out of the tropics and through the system. Same goes for the other heatwaves roasting the middle latitudes this summer.

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

Tim says they’re acclimated to hot, dry weather. Must be something else.

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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

To be fair 1983 was after a super niño which was very stormy across the SW US.

Where-as 2022 is a historic 3rd year Niña (and possibly the first time on record that the 3rd Niña will be the strongest in the sequence).

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Hmm, the 06z Euro control run finally ditched the slow cooldown idea. I think the operational euro will cave today (can’t believe I’m saying that, lol).

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9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

79 outside and 80 in my office. Pretty sweet. 

Just hit 80 here…although in the mornings/early afternoon it usually doesn’t get too bad in my apartment and holds on to the cool air I let in overnight. Once 3-4pm hits though it gets hot fast since I’m on the west side of the building. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Just hit 80 here…although in the mornings/early afternoon it usually doesn’t get too bad in my apartment and holds on to the cool air I let in overnight. Once 3-4pm hits though it gets hot fast since I’m on the west side of the building. 

Equilibrium. 
 

My office faces east so it’s worse in the morning on hot days. Actually cools a bit later in the day. 

4686D3BF-5C2B-4488-B265-3A5A4C209750.jpeg

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

Looks like PDX is matching the same 11am temp as yesterday except for a higher dew point today. Sweaty. It would be cool to get to 100 one day though if it’s going to be this hot. 

Edited by FroYoBro
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5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm starving

Same bro. Been keto-ing at 70% basal since spring and the cravings have been torturous. 😂

But d**n it works. Am in the best physical and mental shape I’ve been in a long time.

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5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Equilibrium. 
 

My office faces east so it’s worse in the morning on hot days. Actually cools a bit later in the day. 

4686D3BF-5C2B-4488-B265-3A5A4C209750.jpeg

I’m guessing we’re probably gonna hit 92-94 today. Feels nasty outside already 81 DP 66. There’s no cooling breeze coming off the water either today. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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43 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hmm, the 06z Euro control run finally ditched the slow cooldown idea. I think the operational euro will cave today (can’t believe I’m saying that, lol).

Nope.

12Z ECMWF is actually a little warmer than its 00Z run on Monday morning.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty fun little low level rotation off the CA coast.

Looks like its pulling monsoonal moisture westward into the Sierras.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nope.

12Z ECMWF is actually a little warmer than its 00Z run on Monday morning.  

Lol the mid 80s on monday would feel nice after a week of low to mid 90s being shown cool bias factored in. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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  • Longtimer
49 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hmm, the 06z Euro control run finally ditched the slow cooldown idea. I think the operational euro will cave today (can’t believe I’m saying that, lol).

It didn’t 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol the mid 80s on monday would feel nice after a week of low to mid 90s being shown cool bias factored in. 

Indeed.   And it has to cool down... just looks very slow on the 12Z ECMWF like its previous runs.

 

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Our first day in Minnesota looks rainy... then barely into the low 70s the next day on Monday.

Not too worried about the 130 degree heat that the GFS is showing.   

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12Z ECMWF still shows temps well into the 80s next Tuesday... maybe 90ish in Portland on this run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Indeed.   And it has to cool down... just looks very slow on the 12Z ECMWF like its previous runs.

 

Pretty ridiculous that we could actually hit 6 consecutive +90 days in the Seattle area. That’d be a new record. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Our first day in Minnesota looks rainy... then barely into the low 70s the next day on Monday.

Not too worried about the 130 degree heat that the GFS is showing.   

I’ll help out Chris and let you know that nobody cares. 

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5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I’ll help out Chris and let you know that nobody cares. 

For sure.   More for Phil because he has been trolling on our MN trip.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

Pretty typical recent midsummer progression on the Euro with energy pinching off dramatically well offshore and then very gradually meandering eastward in very disheveled form. Anyone expecting the earlier GFS/CMC solutions to verify for next week was ignoring climo.

Edited by BLI snowman
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