On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[snow_wizard]

Just today the GFS terribly misjudged the marine influence going for ahigh of 87 while it only reached 81.  Why should we believe the temps it's showing for week two?

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS is very decent after next Thursday.

 

23 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I've got bad news... after all the progress shown in earlier runs, GFS decided to make a new PEAK hot day.  Now it's Friday.... and Tacoma is showing a high of 101F as is Portland.

So the original peak days of Tuesday and Wednesday are no more... now it's Thursday Friday.  Let's hope this changes. Horrible heat for the Columbia Basin with Twi-Cities at 114, Omak around 104, Spokane 102, Clarkston 104, The Dalles 111, Medford in a week long trend of 100 + degrees.  Gosh darn, what is happening?  Please just end all this. 

Still though, as I said before, cool spots are the coast. Oregon coast is 70s to as low as 60s.  Washington's coast is cooler in the mid 70s and north of Seattle between Everett and Bellingham is cooler, low 80s to 70s. Port Townsend is supposed to be in the 60s.  

Conflicting reports 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

 

Thank you for calling it how it actually is. 

Thanks a lot.  I'll just not post anything if you think I'm nuts.

Let's just wait and see what happens.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

 

Conflicting reports 

People believe the absurd GFS surface data.  How many times does it have to bust 5 to 8 high for people to learn?

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows around 75 and GFS around 80... should be in the mid to upper 70s which is pretty much normal.   

Sounds pleasant to me.  We all know the 80 won't happen.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just today the GFS terribly misjudged the marine influence going for ahigh of 87 while it only reached 81.  Why should we believe the temps it's showing for week two?

Doesn't mean it will be off by 20 degrees either.    And the GFS output for SEA actually works pretty well for areas just east of SEA.   Its probably going to be a long stretch of fairly hot weather for EPSL.

GFS showed 86 at SEA today and it was 86 in Issaquah and North Bend.   Much warmer than what the ECMWF showed out here.

[Doinko]

12z Euro: 92/98/97/100/97/94/96

00z GFS: 89/97/99/101/101/97/94

Either solution is a pretty extreme heatwave in terms of duration

[snow_wizard]

I've only got about 50 years of experience observing weather around here.  Pretty worthless I guess.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Thanks a lot.  I'll just not post anything if you think I'm nuts.

Let's just wait and see what happens.

Don’t know what to tell you…I do enjoy your enthusiasm and you’re very knowledgeable but a lot of the stuff you post is a wishcast interpretation of reality…and not what the models are actually showing. People are gonna call you out on that sorry. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People believe the absurd GFS surface data.  How many times does it have to bust 5 to 8 high for people to learn?

I think GFS surface temps are a bit more accurate for Portland, not sure about Seattle though.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I've only got about 50 years of experience observing weather around here.  Pretty worthless I guess.

Maybe you just consider low to mid 80s nice weather now?    You are saying it won't be extremely hot for very long which might be true... but it doesn’t look real cool at all.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

12z Euro: 92/98/97/100/97/94/96

00z GFS: 89/97/99/101/101/97/94

Either solution is a pretty extreme heatwave in terms of duration

No doubt next week is going to be hot for a pretty sustained period.  The big disagreement is on the cool down for week two.  Just looking at the surface gradients and the upper level ridge axis moving well offshore says temps cooling to reasonable levels.

[Doinko]

GEFS looks a lot cooler than the operational 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Don’t know what to tell you…I do enjoy your enthusiasm and you’re very knowledgeable but a lot of the stuff you post is a wishcast interpretation of reality…and not what the models are actually showing. People are gonna call you out on that sorry. 

We have yet to see what actually happens.

It's kind of insulting having people dispute tomorrow is going to be enjoyably cool though.  I didn't say abnormally cool or anything like that.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt next week is going to be hot for a pretty sustained period.  The big disagreement is on the cool down for week two.  Just looking at the surface gradients and the upper level ridge axis moving well offshore says temps cooling to reasonable levels.

I agree with cooling to reasonable levels.   That seems very likely.   But reasonable levels is still probably warmer than normal.  That is all I am saying.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We have yet to see what actually happens.

It's kind of insulting having people dispute tomorrow is going to be enjoyably cool though.  I didn't say abnormally cool or anything like that.

It’s insulting that people disagree with your interpretation? You’re taking this all way too personally it’s really not that serious. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s insulting that people disagree with your interpretation? You’re taking this all way too personally it’s really not that serious. 

I was just saying Tim felt he had to dispute me saying it would be cooler tomorrow.  I guess we'll see real quick on that one.

People are insinuating I'm either lying or crazy.  Insulting.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We have yet to see what actually happens.

It's kind of insulting having people dispute tomorrow is going to be enjoyably cool though.  I didn't say abnormally cool or anything like that.

Tomorrow will probably be cool and cloudy into the early afternoon and then jump quickly in the mid to late afternoon and end up fairly close to normal.   Same thing on Saturday.    Then it's likely going to be wall to wall sun for at least a week.

[SnowWillarrive]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Sounds pleasant to me.  We all know the 80 won't happen.

Sadly towards the foothills will be closer to 80 tommorow. I’m thinking 78 or 79 is realistic. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just saying Tim felt he had to dispute me saying it would be cooler tomorrow.  I guess we'll see real quick on that one.

People are insinuating I'm either lying or crazy.  Insulting.

It will definitely be significantly cooler tomorrow.  Particularly out here away from the water where it was in the mid to even upper 80s in places today.  I did not dispute that or say you were wrong.   I thought you were talking about much cooler than normal.   My bad.   You clarified.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Sadly towards the foothills will be closer to 80 tommorow. I’m thinking 78 or 79 is realistic. 

Could be, but it could end up cooler than that.  This shortwave will create enough of a push that the foothills may be no warmer than anywhere else.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just saying Tim felt he had to dispute me saying it would be cooler tomorrow.  I guess we'll see real quick on that one.

People are insinuating I'm either lying or crazy.  Insulting.

Most of it’s just jokes…I actually do appreciate what you have to say even if I disagree sometimes. There’s no denying your knowledgeable about weather stuff I just think you have a tendency to see what you want to see and ignore what you don’t want to see.  Sorry if you feel insulted or personally attacked and that’s not what I’m trying to do at all. I don’t feel like I’ve been rude in my difference of opinion and anything Ive said in recent days was meant to be funny. However for the sake of not offending you I guess I’ll back off. 

[snow_wizard]

Part of my combativeness tonight is that Jesse has turned on me.  I thought of him as a friend, but he has basically said I'm delusional and of no value to the forum any longer.  That hurts.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Most of it’s just jokes…I actually do appreciate what you have to say even if I disagree sometimes. There’s no denying your knowledgeable about weather stuff I just think you have a tendency to see what you want to see and ignore what you don’t want to see.  Sorry if you feel insulted or personally attacked and that’s not what I’m trying to do at all. I don’t feel like I’ve been rude in my difference of opinion and anything Ive said in recent days was meant to be funny. However for the sake of not offending you I guess I’ll back off. 

We're good.

[snow_wizard]

I will add....I want a cool August so freeking bad!  If for no other reason, because we haven't had one for 21 years.  Twenty one years!

Sorry for my behavior tonight.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I will add....I want a cool August so freeking bad!  If for no other reason, because we haven't had one for 21 years.  Twenty one years!

Sorry for my behavior tonight.

Relative to the past 30 year norms? Of which 19 of those are part of? How is that possible??

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I will add....I want a cool August so freeking bad!  If for no other reason, because we haven't had one for 21 years.  Twenty one years!

Sorry for my behavior tonight.

You didn't do anything wrong!

And to be clear... I agree that tomorrow will be cooler.   There probably won't even be any sun until after 1 or 2 p.m.   It will be a very different type of day.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I will add....I want a cool August so freeking bad!  If for no other reason, because we haven't had one for 21 years.  Twenty one years!

Sorry for my behavior tonight.

21 years?! I agree, a cool August would be nice.

[Cascadia_Wx]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Part of my combativeness tonight is that Jesse has turned on me.  I thought of him as a friend, but he has basically said I'm delusional and of no value to the forum any longer.  That hurts.

Come on. I never said you were of no value to the forum. 

[RentonHill]

Off topic but I accidentally took an extra unisom tonight and I don’t think I’m going to 

[Cloud]

44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just today the GFS terribly misjudged the marine influence going for ahigh of 87 while it only reached 81.  Why should we believe the temps it's showing for week two?

So no more “holy shiet” when it’s showing its cold bias 2 weeks out this fall or winter then?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly evening. Down to 54. 

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Handful of 90s 

kennewick hitting 115

Low 80s here. Looks pretty ideal to me if I ignore the rest of the region. Although today was pretty gorgeous as well with a high of 73F. High for the summer so far is 85F so looks about what we've seen already.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Monday took a step toward the GFS on the 00z Euro. No longer advertising temps near 100 that day.

[Deweydog]

Euro kummin’ in kooler!

 

[NWbyNW]

29 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Low 80s here. Looks pretty ideal to me if I ignore the rest of the region. Although today was pretty gorgeous as well with a high of 73F. High for the summer so far is 85F so looks about what we've seen already.

I was in Mount Vernon today by the riverfront.  It was a beautiful day.  Nice breeze coming in as well. 

[NWbyNW]

Tomorrow will be 2 minutes 13 seconds shorter! 

 

Long range forecast for Everett looks reasonable.  Still that will be the hottest we've been this year, but manageable compared to last year's heat wave for doom. Not even a mid-80s. I'm kind of shocked. It will be the longest sustained heat like that in awhile though, and with no AC... well... I can't complain still seeing what other parts of the region are experiencing.  

I will enjoy the low 70s on Friday and Saturday as if they are a fine wine.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good to see the EC being cooler.

[Requiem]

Intensity-wise it seems pretty typical for midsummer but duration is pretty gnarly with the latest EURO giving us 7 consecutive days above 90 and heat lingering into the end of the run.

[Doinko]

19 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Intensity-wise it seems pretty typical for midsummer but duration is pretty gnarly with the latest EURO giving us 7 consecutive days above 90 and heat lingering into the end of the run.

On the GFS the heat west of the cascades is more typical in intensity but it also shows 115+ in places like the Tri-Cities. Glad that the Euro backed off a bit because it was showing 118+ there