On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[TacomaWx]

Well we’re about to rack up the hot days here quickly. Should be at 15 +80s, 9 +85s and 5 +90s roughly by the time we start august. We had 21 +80s, 8 +85s and 3 +90s by the end of july last year. So more hot days overall but less warm days. 

[Blizzard777]

Defiant fog hugging the Sound.  Lookin north from Tacoma 

[FroYoBro]

Skies are already clearing here. Might mean that we get above freezing today.

[TacomaWx]

Really hope that fridays the last +90 but the euros definitely got me worried. 12z gfs still insists it’s over on Friday too. Nws disc. Seems to think we’re done with +90s Friday as well. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Really hope that fridays the last +90 but the euros definitely got me worried. 12z gfs still insists it’s over on Friday too. Nws disc. Seems to think we’re done with +90s Friday as well. 

The EPS seems to support a faster cooldown than the operational

[TacomaWx]

Starting to get kinda smoky out west. We shouldn’t have to worry about the smoke just yet in the PNW though. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

The EPS seems to support a faster cooldown than the operational

Yeah I saw that, hopefully it stays that way. Still it won’t be a dramatic cooldown like the end of the June heatwave we kinda just slowly go from hot to kinda hot.

[TT-SEA]

Phil says troughs follow me... but it looks like might be the opposite this time.

There is a ridge out here this week and a deep trough in Minnesota... then next week it flips and there is a deep trough out here and a ridge in MN.     Summer is following me.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS says we might even get some rain by the middle of next week.    I am glad we will be home to water this week and it would be great to have nature take care of it next week while we are gone.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I saw that, hopefully it stays that way. Still it won’t be a dramatic cooldown like the end of the June heatwave we kinda just slowly go from hot to kinda hot.

It will probably change but the cooldown on the 00z EPS looked pretty good 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil says troughs follow me... but it looks like might be the opposite this time.

There is a ridge out here this week and a deep trough in Minnesota... then next week it flips and there is a deep trough out here and a ridge in MN.     Summer is following me.  

So you’re bringing your weather machine with you, I see.

Hell, GFS might be too cool MN since it’s likely overdigging that trough in E-Canada. Enjoy roasting and burning! 

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS says we might even get some rain by the middle of next week.    I am glad we will be home to water this week and it would be great to have nature take care of it next week while we are gone.  

That would be awesome especially right after a heatwave too bad it’s +10 days out. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

So you’re bringing your weather machine with you, I see.

Hell, GFS might be too cool MN since it’s likely overdigging that trough in E-Canada. Enjoy roasting and burning! 

Its never that bad up north in the lake country of Minnesota.   You assume everywhere east of the Rockies is exactly like DC.   And we will be in a house right on the water with several boats.    Too chilly is more of a concern than too warm in northern MN.    

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its never that bad up north in the lake country of Minnesota.   You assume everywhere east of the Rockies is exactly like DC.   And we will be in a house right on the water with several boats.    Too chilly is more of a concern than too warm in northern MN.    

And when its wet in the summer that doesn't cause people to jump off bridges in the eastern US.

We can easily get two seasons in the same day here

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

current smoke over Tahoe today 

Don't miss that at all! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

2.9 magnitude earthquake just now at 1:43am local time 6 km SW of Aloha, OR.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/uw61856377/executive

There was another earthquake, this time a magnitude 4.0 just afterwards at 2:22am off the Oregon Coast.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000ht45/executive

[snow_wizard]

Incredible 12z GFS run.  If it verifies that would be one of the all time great crashes after a heatwave.  Of particular note is the sustained 6000+ heights it shows over the GOA beginning next weekend.  Models are spitting out PNA values of -3 to -4 once the pattern change takes hold.  Impressive!

[snow_wizard]

The continued horrendous performance of the GFS for surface temps in the Central Puget Sound can't be emphasized enough.  Yesterday's shit show had SEA reaching 81 while in reality it hit 72.

[snow_wizard]

On 7/22/2022 at 10:11 AM, Phil said:

Yesterday evening got so humid condensation starting seeping through the (failing) weather stripping on the kitchen window. Had to stick a wash rag there to soak it up. 

I would literally wilt in those conditions.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The continued horrendous performance of the GFS for surface temps in the Central Puget Sound can't be emphasized enough.  Yesterday's show had SEA reaching 81 while in reality it hit 72.

Wait, what???

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

current smoke over Tahoe today 

Quite the contrast for one day.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The continued horrendous performance of the GFS for surface temps in the Central Puget Sound can't be emphasized enough.  Yesterday's show had SEA reaching 81 while in reality it hit 72.

Its a known issue when marine layer clearing timing is a big factor in determining high temps.   The GFS and WRF always assume earlier clearing than reality on those days.  Its easy to spot the days when that will be an issue.   And that will not be an issue this week.

[TT-SEA]

Already up to 75 in North Bend.   

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Quite the contrast for one day.

It was like that last summer, got thick for a few days and next day had 20 mile visibility. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

That would be awesome especially right after a heatwave too bad it’s +10 days out. 

And now Jim is posting about it so it definitely won’t happen.

[Cloud]

Here we go again. 
this is gonna have all sorts of impacts.

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today has been really pleasant so far. Up to 70 after a low of 54. It will probably get hot in the later afternoon but at least most of today will be tolerable. That brief morning marine layer was the embodiment of HOPE

[Cloud]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The continued horrendous performance of the GFS for surface temps in the Central Puget Sound can't be emphasized enough.  Yesterday's show had SEA reaching 81 while in reality it hit 72.

GFS cloud maps are not good at picking up the marine influence. Compared to the euro. Thus, the huge discrepancy. 
 

We’ll be having no marine influence at all coming into the heatwave. And I guarantee you its surface temps won’t be this far off. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Here we go again. 
this is gonna have all sorts of impacts.

 

 

I’m guessing it will have a relatively low VEI. 

[FroYoBro]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already up to 75 in North Bend.   

Actually a degree warmer than here so far. Bring it on!

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m guessing it will have a relatively low VEI. 

Nope. Seems like a large scale explosion is not expected but you never know. It’s one of Japan’s most active volcanoes. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 73F. Beautiful morning before the furnace gets turned on.

[Phil]

52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would literally wilt in those conditions.

Ironically dry heat is what actually makes people wilt (literally).

Humid heat is great for skin/wrinkles. The heatstroke not so much.

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Nope. Seems like a large scale explosion is not expected but you never know. It’s one of Japan’s most active volcanoes. 

If so it’s still pretty far north. Wouldn’t affect climate as efficiently as a tropical eruption. Though once you get well into VEI6 range it starts to matter less.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z Euro sure is stubborn with dropping us below 90 for highs. 
 

It shows us in the low to mid 90s over next weekend into Monday which is much more tolerable than 100, but still way slower with the cool down than other runs. Would get us close to a record for consecutive days above 90 at face value.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

That would be awesome especially right after a heatwave too bad it’s +10 days out. 

It's actually sooner than that.  The ECMWF is the slowest of all models (including the EPS) to crash the pattern.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's actually sooner than that.  The ECMWF is the slowest of all models (including the EPS) to crash the pattern.

Yeah the ensembles seem to crash this weekend while the latest control run keeps us hot through Sunday. Hopefully we can get into a troughy pattern in early august. Would be great if we can avoid a warm pattern at all again or delay it until the second half of august so the sun angles can start taking the edge off of another heatwave if it comes. 

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GFS cloud maps are not good at picking up the marine influence. Compared to the euro. Thus, the huge discrepancy. 
 

We’ll be having no marine influence at all coming into the heatwave. And I guarantee you its surface temps won’t be this far off. 

Still about 5 or 6 off I'm guessing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Yeah the ensembles seem to crash this weekend while the latest control run keeps us hot through Sunday. Hopefully we can get into a troughy pattern in early august. Would be great if we can avoid a warm pattern at all again or delay it until the second half of august so the sun angles can start taking the edge off of another heatwave if it comes. 

You are speaking my language.

[TacomaWx]

72 at noon. Pretty likely we get into the low 80s today but atleast it won’t be very hot today.