On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re -0.2 for July as of right today but that’s quickly gonna go up. Has been a pretty pleasant month so far with a max temp of 84 on 7/11 and 7/20 too bad it couldn’t last. 

I could end this month around 4-5" rain, and still manage to be one of the warmest months of the year.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

I could end this month around 4-5" rain, and still manage to be one of the warmest months of the year.

Here I am hoping for 0.10” in the first week of august lol. 

[Deweydog]

Nocturnal HCS!

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Sending prayers. Lol in all seriousness hope you have a good few days of jet skis man. 

Thanks! I’m hoping to take a day off later in the week for a full day of lake fun!! 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

High cloud shocker ruined jetski Sunday. 

So glad it wait until evening to move through down here.  

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS showed 84 at SEA today.   Actual high was 84.  

ECMWF showed 76.   

The GFS is absurd. 

GFS missed by 9 degrees yesterday.

ATROCIOUS

[Cloud]

50 minutes ago, MossMan said:

High cloud shocker ruined jetski Sunday. 

Prayers. Deep prayers. 

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS showed 84 at SEA today.   Actual high was 84.  

ECMWF showed 76.   

The GFS is absurd. 

No marine layer? Imagine that! 

[TT-SEA]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS missed by 9 degrees yesterday.

ATROCIOUS

And ECMWF by 8 today.   

[smerfylicious]

Ended today at 87 for a high. Only 5 degrees warmer than forecast. Pretty sure I'll be hitting 6 straight 90+ days then.

[Doinko]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It could get REALLY hot on the east side with this pattern.  

The ECMWF was showing 118+ east of the cascades a few runs ago I think. Gladly it's backed off but I think it was still showing ~114

[Deweydog]

52 and drizzle in Newport.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous sunset... everything is red tinted right now.

[Requiem]

12 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The ECMWF was showing 118+ east of the cascades a few runs ago I think. Gladly it's backed off but I think it was still showing ~114

showing pretty widespread 110-115 temps in the Columbia Basin atp 

[Doinko]

One thing we`ve been monitoring carefully is the potential for mid-week convection, the likelihood of which is incredibly tough to pin down due to disagreement among members of the grand ensemble. Several members in each ensemble are now depicting QPF across some part of our CWA during the mid to late week timeframe, though there is very little temporal alignment. The deterministic GFS and Canadian ensembles bring the most clear shortwave feature - a northward moving band of enhanced cyclonic vorticity passing across NW Oregon during the Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning period. Ironically, the EPS, which does not highlight such a distinct feature and whose ensemble fails to support sufficient instability for convective activity, does forecast lightning strikes in the Cascades Wednesday evening. The Canadian`s instability forecast is the most impressive, as the mean of its ensemble has 342 J/kg of CAPE in Eugene Wednesday afternoon, while the maximum in the EPS ensemble suggests 189 J/kg (its mean is 8 J/kg). This feature will bear watching, as the NAM suggests flow along and ahead of this feature, which will potentially induce a tropospheric fold, will turn south-southeasterly; this means that any thunderstorms which do manage to develop in the Cascades would move across our CWA rather than out of it. For now, we'll continue to monitor the threat and will message updates to our thinking accordingly. More clarity sould come when we get close enough to the event temporally to utilize the CAMs, which will theoretically help pin down the timing and strength of any mesoscale mechanisms to generate convection.

-NWS Portland AFD.

 

[NWbyNW]

Peaked at 73F today.  Nice sunset.  Tomorrow is projected to be 80F here. 

[Cloud]

[NWbyNW]

Seattle NOAA warns of some smoke coming from British Columbia.  They also don't see any quick marine air push into the southern part of the Puget Sound.  They seem to think it will be a gradual cool down with no big drop or relief day.   

[SouthHillFrosty]

First annual Weather Forum BBQ at my crib Saturday August 13th if y'all wanna slide through

[TT-SEA]

Just now, NWbyNW said:

Seattle NOAA warns of some smoke coming from British Columbia.  They also don't see any quick marine air push into the southern part of the Puget Sound.  They seem to think it will be a gradual cool down with no big drop or relief day.   

00Z GFS shows 86 and 84 at SEA next Saturday and Sunday... pretty sad I am going to miss another spectacular Seattle summer weekend.   

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows 86 and 84 at SEA next Saturday and Sunday... pretty sad I am going to miss another spectacular Seattle summer weekend.   

Basically the same weather in MN, right?

I forget did you grow up there it was it San Diego?

[Blizzard777]

Boardwalk was busy and for good reason! 
 

70* 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Basically the same weather in MN, right?

I forget did you grow up there it was it San Diego?

Grew up in MN.    But there is something very special about this area when we hit our summer stride.   I hate to leave.  

[SnowWillarrive]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows 86 and 84 at SEA next Saturday and Sunday... pretty sad I am going to miss another spectacular Seattle summer weekend.   

Sounds terrible 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Sounds terrible 

Not a fan of 90s this week... would prefer it just stay like today.    Next weekend might be repeat of today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

00z GFS is delaying the cool down now. Caving to the Euro?

[Blizzard777]

31 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

One thing we`ve been monitoring carefully is the potential for mid-week convection, the likelihood of which is incredibly tough to pin down due to disagreement among members of the grand ensemble. Several members in each ensemble are now depicting QPF across some part of our CWA during the mid to late week timeframe, though there is very little temporal alignment. The deterministic GFS and Canadian ensembles bring the most clear shortwave feature - a northward moving band of enhanced cyclonic vorticity passing across NW Oregon during the Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning period. Ironically, the EPS, which does not highlight such a distinct feature and whose ensemble fails to support sufficient instability for convective activity, does forecast lightning strikes in the Cascades Wednesday evening. The Canadian`s instability forecast is the most impressive, as the mean of its ensemble has 342 J/kg of CAPE in Eugene Wednesday afternoon, while the maximum in the EPS ensemble suggests 189 J/kg (its mean is 8 J/kg). This feature will bear watching, as the NAM suggests flow along and ahead of this feature, which will potentially induce a tropospheric fold, will turn south-southeasterly; this means that any thunderstorms which do manage to develop in the Cascades would move across our CWA rather than out of it. For now, we'll continue to monitor the threat and will message updates to our thinking accordingly. More clarity sould come when we get close enough to the event temporally to utilize the CAMs, which will theoretically help pin down the timing and strength of any mesoscale mechanisms to generate convection.

-NWS Portland AFD.

 

Lol….all the convective activity will happen up here as I go south! Just wrong

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

00z GFS is delaying the cool down now. Caving to the Euro?

A small part of me is hoping for us to beat the 95+ consecutive days record just so that we have something to note looking back on this heatwave, but I'd also rather it end faster for people without AC.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

00z GFS is delaying the cool down now. Caving to the Euro?

Canadian looks better! 

[TacomaWx]

Can confirm the sunset was good. 

[GobBluth]

Portland nws hedging the Tuesday temps depending on California wildfire smoke.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

A small part of me is hoping for us to beat the 95+ consecutive days record just so that we have something to note looking back on this heatwave, but I'd also rather it end faster for people without AC.

Lots and lots and lots of notable heatwave stuff to look back on in the last several years alone. Having a heatwave that did not set some sort of new benchmark would be more notable if anything.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Plus most models that extend the heatwave don’t do it with 95+ days. Low 90s stuff over the weekend into Monday.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Lol….all the convective activity will happen up here as I go south! Just wrong

I'm going to be back to the PNW on Friday so I'll miss any convection that happens on Wednesday

[snow_wizard]

Another great GFS run.  My heart goes out to people in the Midwest and the NE if this solution verifies though.  Downright ugly back there for week 2.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Another great GFS run.  My heart goes out to people in the Midwest and the NE if this solution verifies though.  Downright ugly back there for week 2.

How bad? Can you post it pls?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another great GFS run.  My heart goes out to people in the Midwest and the NE if this solution verifies though.  Downright ugly back there for week 2.

You just gloss over a very hot week in the PNW but you are worried about the Midwest at 300 hours out on the GFS.   

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another great GFS run.  My heart goes out to people in the Midwest and the NE if this solution verifies though.  Downright ugly back there for week 2.

I’ll be in FL/GA where that pattern would produce easterly flow and (relatively) cooler temps.

So..let it rip! Until I get back home, of course.

[Deweydog]

I just told everyone about the east coast heatwave.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You just gloss over a very hot week in the PNW but you are worried about the Midwest at 300 hours out on the GFS.   

Would be a godsend if the long overdue mega heatwave happened while I’m out of town. I’m basically rooting for it at this point.