On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You just gloss over a very hot week in the PNW but you are worried about the Midwest at 300 hours out on the GFS.   

Kind of making the point our heat will be small potatoes by comparison.  What's being shown there could easily be historic.  Might be in the ballpark of the 1930s events.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phil said:

Would be a godsend if the long overdue mega heatwave happened while I’m out of town. I’m basically rooting for it at this point.

Where are you going to be?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Kind of making the point our heat will be small potatoes by comparison.  What's being shown there could easily be historic.  Might be in the ballpark of the 1930s events.

Yeah... its the GFS at 300 hours.   

[TT-SEA]

87 in North Bend today... 86 up here.   

ECMWF showed upper 70s out here today.   Absurd.  

[snow_wizard]

The hot weather will be a lot easier to take knowing in a week or less the bottom is probably going to fall out.  This heatwave here will be fairly impressive from an actual how hot it gets standpoint, and quite impressive for duration.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of making the point our heat will be small potatoes by comparison.  What's being shown there could easily be historic.  Might be in the ballpark of the 1930s events.

It’s also 300hrs out.  

It’ll happen eventually. Questionable if this is the year, though.

[SouthHillFrosty]

On 7/20/2022 at 11:00 PM, RentonHillTC said:

You know, we do need more (see: any) meetups here. I think it would help remind everyone that there’s real people with real issues and real lives behind these names. @SouthHillFrosty said he’d have us all over when he settled in at his house but he’s obviously flaking on that. 

I created a thread for the meet up. No more lacking on my part

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

GFS missed by 9 degrees yesterday.

ATROCIOUS

I love how he picked the one day it was right.  It has been terrible lately overall.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Where are you going to be?

Tampa FL 7/31 to 8/7, then St. Simon’s GA 8/7 to 8/21.

It’s the same airmass 24/7 down there at this time of year, so I could care less about the pattern. Just hoping for convection or a strong afternoon sea breeze.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s also 300hrs out.  

It’ll happen eventually. Questionable if this is the year, though.

True.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The hot weather will be a lot easier to take knowing in a week or less the bottom is probably going to fall out.  This heatwave here will be fairly impressive from an actual how hot it gets standpoint, and quite impressive for duration.

Not sure the bottom is going to fall out but I guess that is subjective.   Might be a couple days in the low to mid 70s.     And if I had to guess... by time it happens we might be looking at the next warm spell in the models.

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I created a thread for the meet up. No more lacking on my part

I think it’s a great idea. Kinda far for the Oregon people but you’re only like 20 minutes away from me so I’d be down. 

[TT-SEA]

The GEFS did very well today for the high temp at SEA... and it shows another warm up starting after the troughing next week.    Something to watch because it was showing it getting warm this coming week at least 10 days ago.    

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I created a thread for the meet up. No more lacking on my part

The post you were responding to made a good point.  These are real people with real feelings on here.  It's easy to forget that sometimes.  We always talk about a lot of us getting together, but it never seems to get off the ground.  Maybe someday.  

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The post you were responding to made a good point.  These are real people with real feelings on here.  It's easy to forget that sometimes.  We always talk about a lot of getting together, but it never seems to get off the ground.  Maybe someday.  

August 13th! Would love to meet some of y’all you included. Despite the differences in opinion on forecasting you seem like a great guy IMO. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEFS did very well today for the high temp at SEA... and it shows another warm up starting after the troughing next week.    Something to watch because it was showing it getting warm this coming week at least 10 days ago.    

That is too warm.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEFS did very well today for the high temp at SEA... and it shows another warm up starting after the troughing next week.    Something to watch because it was showing it getting warm this coming week at least 10 days ago.    

What does the GEFS chart look like for Portland?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

That is too warm.

Just looking at trendline... its up then down then back up again.   I am pretty sure Matt has pointed out nature's tendency to work this way with some cool acronyms.   

[Phil]

00z GEFS and GEPS made a move towards Jim & Jesse’s camp. Basically canonical -PNA/+NPO. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What does the GEFS chart look like for Portland?

 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

Thank you! I'm not sure how Portland is going to be cooler than Seattle though

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GEFS and GEPS made a move towards Jim & Jesse’s camp. Basically canonical -PNA/+NPO. 

There is little doubt there will be a trough next week.   

[Phil]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Thank you! I'm not sure how Portland is going to be cooler than Seattle though

It’s not. The GEFS is probably 10°F too warm with highs for SEA.

[TacomaWx]

Narrowly missed the opportunity to meet @MR.SNOWMIZER this February still regret it. Didn’t have service and was driving off didn’t see he messaged me until later. he pulled up on his bada** gold scooter while I was pulling out of the parking lot and didn’t know it was him. Dude seems like a super nice guy wish I had gotten to say hello. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

It’s not. The GEFS is probably 10°F too warm with highs for SEA.

When?   Not the entire run.   Unless you think it will be in the upper 70s tomorrow after 84 there today.

[Cloud]

55 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

00z GFS is delaying the cool down now. Caving to the Euro?

Blame Jimbo?  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Narrowly missed the opportunity to meet @MR.SNOWMIZER this February still regret it. Didn’t have service and was driving off didn’t see he messaged me until later. he pulled up on his bada** gold scooter while I was pulling out of the parking lot and didn’t know it was him. Dude seems like a super nice guy wish I had gotten to say hello. 

Yeah... that was quite the story!   You always have good stories for us on here.   And he seems like great guy.   

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There is little doubt there will be a trough next week.   

Turn off your weather machine bro.

Inexplicable this hot blob follows you around like it’s your shadow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll be in FL/GA where that pattern would produce easterly flow and (relatively) cooler temps.

So..let it rip! Until I get back home, of course.

FL and GA in the summer? OK, I will shut up and not complain about having to spend nearly the entire month of July in Albuquerque (where at least the dew points stay in sane ranges).

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Turn off your weather machine bro.

Inexplicable this hot blob follows you around like it’s your shadow.

You just said troughing follows me everywhere. Now it's the opposite!  

Side note... I am cheering for troughing and rain here while we are gone.   We need some rain now and it would be better for our yard since we won't be here to water.   And then maybe we hit the cycle timing just right and it's back to sunny and warm when we get home.   

[Cloud]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEFS did very well today for the high temp at SEA... and it shows another warm up starting after the troughing next week.    Something to watch because it was showing it getting warm this coming week at least 10 days ago.    

Can honestly live with this if these are outputs for minimum temps. The window fans have been doing wonder so I’m curious to know how long I can last without the AC  

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Thank you! I'm not sure how Portland is going to be cooler than Seattle though

It’s SEA and the airport sits on a hill about 400’ above. It can get quite warm with the “readings” through the gaps with offshore flow. Not exactly a great representation. BFI is better. Right at sea level. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

FL and GA in the summer? OK, I will shut up and not complain about having to spend nearly the entire month of July in Albuquerque (where at least the dew points stay in sane ranges).

Haha, yeah it’s rough but also it’s basically the same airmass back home in August most of the time.

Dews are a couple degrees higher in FL/GA bit there’s a nice sea breeze most days in addition to frequent convection. So it more than compensates.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS shows a slow cool down but it does bottom out decently chilly for a couple days later next week... then back to summer perfection by the end of the run.  

That 80ish weather at the end of the run looks cool because the chart is stretched high to show the near 100 degree heat coming this week.   

[smerfylicious]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Lots and lots and lots of notable heatwave stuff to look back on in the last several years alone. Having a heatwave that did not set some sort of new benchmark would be more notable if anything.

This will be the first heatwave where my house stays at a comfortable 70 degrees, no matter the temperature. That's pretty notable.

[TacomaWx]

69 here warm evening. Should be 60-62 for the low tomorrow 

[Meatyorologist]

Starting to see the first signs of high Arctic cooldown on the LR 00z GFS as the sun steadily approaches the horizon over the next couple months. 0C contour slowly and slightly overtakes the sfc map over the Arctic Ocean.

[Meatyorologist]

Last night's extended 00z GEFS shows it more strongly...

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Starting to see the first signs of high Arctic cooldown on the LR 00z GFS as the sun steadily approaches the horizon over the next couple months. 0C contour slowly and slightly overtakes the sfc map over the Arctic Ocean.

I’m noticing it’s getting darker earlier for sure. We’ve lost about 45 minutes in the last month. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I’m noticing it’s getting darker earlier for sure. We’ve lost about 45 minutes in the last month. 

Pretty similar rates to this time in 1949