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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


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For clarification... we had highs in the 60s on August 4, 15, 16, 30, 31 in the torrid summer of 2015 in the Snoqualmie Valley.   And it rained on all those days.    And it was a top 5 wet August at SEA.    And it was still a hot summer.   Crashes always happen.  

This feels like a Nino summer.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No doubt that block over the GOA next week is shaping up to be exceptional for this time of year.  Can't wait to see how the details play out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

TONGA

Usually volcanoes cause cooling.  I think this was going to happen either way.  Other than this week it has been a pretty enjoyable summer....after the gloom finally shut off.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

109 at Redmond today.

110 at my place. Hopefully this has some kind of sick joke and it we get a legitimate Arctic airmass this winter and we have highs in single digits and teens for a week this winter. Has to balance out right? 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very 2015-like.  

And we did have 3 crashes in August of 2015... all with rain.   

What is really odd is having a very Nino like summer in the middle of multi-year Nina with the Nina strengthening all summer.  

That was surprisingly one of the cooler Augusts in the last 10 years at KLMT. 2017 and 2016 had warmer Augusts. Of course though if June and July both torch, you still end up with a hot summer if August averages out close to normal.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

That was surprisingly one of the cooler Augusts in the last 10 years at KLMT. 2017 and 2016 had warmer Augusts. Of course though if June and July both torch, you still end up with a hot summer if August averages out close to normal.

We need 10 days straight of high temps at 20 degrees to match this heat. 

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Lawn update. 

4D711FCE-3F1C-44E8-AE51-798738C55BE8.jpeg

Looks like parts of Iowa right now. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Usually volcanoes cause cooling.  I think this was going to happen either way.  Other than this week it has been a pretty enjoyable summer....after the gloom finally shut off.

SO2 causes global cooling.   Tonga was almost all water vapor and stratospheric water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas   I am no expert... but I bet in a couple years there will be enough data to support a distinct warming effect from Tonga.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Some really bad takes on here today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some really bad takes on here today. 

Mine was just guess.   Time will tell.  

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Other than this week it has been a pretty enjoyable summer....after the gloom finally shut off.

I am liking the new Jim.

Likely a top 5 hottest July ever at SEA and you think its been an enjoyable summer.   You have evolved and come to the dark side.  😁

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7 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Looks like parts of Iowa right now. 

Pretty typical PNW summertime lawn color. I skipped the half-assed attempt to water it this year and I think it actually looks better than it has in the past. 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SO2 causes global cooling.   Tonga was almost all water vapor and stratospheric water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas   I am no expert... but I bet in a couple years there will be enough data to support a distinct warming effect from Tonga.

Declaring warming from a volcanic eruption years in advance is peak Tim

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For clarification... we had highs in the 60s on August 4, 15, 16, 30, 31 in the torrid summer of 2015 in the Snoqualmie Valley.   And it rained on all those days.    And it was a top 5 wet August at SEA.    And it was still a hot summer.   Crashes always happen.  

This feels like a Nino summer.   

We talked about this a couple weeks ago but ENSO state hasn't seemed to make any difference for our summer weather in the last decade. Last summer was also a Nina and it torched, and 2019 was a Nino (albeit weak) and was our coolest summer since 2012. And as Jesse pointed out winter '18-'19 was a very strange progression for a Nino. Weird stuff.

I also saw this tweet from wxstatman:

 

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9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Pretty typical PNW summertime lawn color. I skipped the half-assed attempt to water it this year and I think it actually looks better than it has in the past. 

This is the first place I've ever lived where people don't water their grass. Nature does that for us in the summer and it's still warm. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Declaring warming from a volcanic eruption years in advance is peak Tim

Declaring?   Or making a guess?   Because I see lots of crazy wishcasts on here for cold all the time.   Months and years in advance!

I have a pretty strong feeling about this one.   Might have to save this post for posterity.  😀

But it's just a guess and I did not declare anything as fact.   If the tables were turned and it was a cold summer there would be endless volcanic summer talk on here... also with nothing to support it.  

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7 minutes ago, James Jones said:

We talked about this a couple weeks ago but ENSO state hasn't seemed to make any difference for our summer weather in the last decade. Last summer was also a Nina and it torched, and 2019 was a Nino (albeit weak) and was our coolest summer since 2012. And as Jesse pointed out winter '18-'19 was a very strange progression for a Nino. Weird stuff.

I also saw this tweet from wxstatman:

 

Pretty crazy.

I went into this summer fully expecting a payback year like a 1999 or 2001.     And we are getting something that feels closer to 2015, 2017, 2018.

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2019 is probably the best we can do nowadays for cool/wet summers and it wasn’t even really a cool summer. Did enjoy it though. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Not really.   I just post lots of stats.   I said many times that we were probably going to be rewarded nicely for that extended and record breaking rainy spell this spring.   

Ya ok Tim, lol, we all saw it the way it happened, not the way your tried to perceive it happened.  Whatever, it is expected anyways.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

2019 is probably the best we can do nowadays for cool/wet summers and it wasn’t even really a cool summer. Did enjoy it though. 

Even despite my AGW doomposting (valid arguments tho), I disagree. That summer was rife with SW'ly flow. Ended up on the warm, humid side of troughs a lot. I think the actual bottom as it stands now is somewhere between 1993 and 1999, in the absolute best case scenario. Northern Scandinavia is seeing similar anomalies this year.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

Maybe.

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

This.

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Some tradage was had.

Some pitchage, if you will.

Down 0-9 in Houston meanwhile

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Some tradage was had.

Some pitchage, if you will.

Down 0-9 in Houston meanwhile

Yea....... idk why we can't beat houston. It's our kryptonite. It's like rain going south of the Columbia river  

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea....... idk why we can't beat houston. It's our kryptonite. It's like rain going south of the Columbia river  

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Some tradage was had.

Some pitchage, if you will.

Down 0-9 in Houston meanwhile

Just forfeit games against the Astros... stay home and rest.   Less demoralizing. 

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13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

It's true we're unlikely to see historically cool summers anymore, even something like 2011 seems like it would be really tough to pull off these days. My point was more that we haven't really seen any ENSO signal in the last decade around our elevated baseline summer temps. 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Just forfeit games against the Astros... stay home and rest.   Less demoralizing. 

I just don't watch the Astros games. They are an unstoppable force against a very much moveable object.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

Just saw you tagged Phil!

The person who told me it was physically impossible for it to be that warm... 10 degrees above the average temp.   Well the average temp at SEA this month has been right around 68 and the Lake Sammamish water temp is in the low 80s.   

And if anyone has ever been there you know its real.   @bainbridgekid knows.    

If Phil ever comes back out here in the summer I am taking him with us boating there.   He won't doubt me any longer.  😀

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

We have a banter thread. You guys should check it out.

Oh it's fine Chris. ;)

If it's really clogging up the thread, like pages worth of baseball talk, it's problem. Of course this is miles better than arguing

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh it's fine Chris. ;)

If it's really clogging up the thread, like pages worth of baseball talk, it's problem. Of course this is miles better than arguing

Just thought the theme lately was for consistency, but ok.

Edited by GHweatherChris
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30 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just don't watch the Astros games. They are an unstoppable force against a very much moveable object.

Should try and fall to the 6th seed. Probably easier to beat the central winner and the Yankees than asterisks. 

  • Weenie 1

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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17 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

We have a banter thread. You guys should check it out.

That’s MML’s jeopardy thread. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not if its sunny.   And it does not really show a marine layer pattern.    Even so... upper 70s is not frigid either.  

 

The GFS warm surface temperature bias is acknowledged by NCEP. Not a debate.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS warm surface temperature bias is acknowledged by NCEP. Not a debate.

It has a warm bias... but it does much better out here on sunny days.   And even more important for here in the EPSL is that the output for SEA works quite well for this area (despite being too warm for SEA) with weak onshore flow which is often the case in the summer months.   And has been the case for most of this month.

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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Lawn update. 

4D711FCE-3F1C-44E8-AE51-798738C55BE8.jpeg

Here is mine…It has finally slowed down growth wise for the first time since early spring. 
Down to 71. 

E723E493-3E61-4A02-81A9-7CA134601EF2.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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North Bend station down to 82 now but the dewpoint is 71.6 and it feels like it.   It's sticky out there.    The dewpoints are higher out here than in the Seattle area for some reason. 

Good tomato growing weather.   

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