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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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  1. 1. More original name title?

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    • Preferance Wars
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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Just saw you tagged Phil!

The person who told me it was physically impossible for it to be that warm... 10 degrees above the average temp.   Well the average temp at SEA this month has been right around 68 and the Lake Sammamish water temp is in the low 80s.   

And if anyone has ever been there you know its real.   @bainbridgekid knows.    

If Phil ever comes back out here in the summer I am taking him with us boating there.   He won't doubt me any longer.  😀

Really got under your skin didn’t I. 😂

Your climate will never be hot or tropical. Suck it up buttercup.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Really got under your skin didn’t I. 😂

Your climate will never be hot or tropical. Suck it up buttercup.

Wouldn't want it to be.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wouldn't want it to be.   

I’m actually surprised you haven’t surrounded your house with Palm Trees yet. Always figured it was inevitable.

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37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Here is mine…It has finally slowed down growth wise for the first time since early spring. 
Down to 71. 

E723E493-3E61-4A02-81A9-7CA134601EF2.jpeg

That tree needs to come down bro.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

That tree needs to come down bro.

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m actually surprised you haven’t surrounded your house with Palm Trees yet. Always figured it was inevitable.

Well someone's in the trolling mood tonight!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m actually surprised you haven’t surrounded your house with Palm Trees yet. Always figured it was inevitable.

Would not fit up here.    Looks good for lake front homes around here though. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Well someone's in the trolling mood tonight!

He seems tired. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

He seems tired. 

yeah, "tired" ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, Phil said:

That tree needs to come down bro.

If I did I would not have any trees left for you to comment on! It’s staying forever!! 😀

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

It’s funny. This take around here even 10 years ago would have been met with an angry mob with pitchforks and torches (not atmospheric kind). In forum climate time, we’re only a blink of an eye away from global warming ceased in 1998/regime change thinking which dominated. Exciting times.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s funny. This take around here even 10 years ago would have been met with an angry mob with pitchforks and torches (not atmospheric kind). In forum climate time, we’re only a blink of an eye away from global warming ceased in 1998/regime change thinking which dominated. Exciting times.

The last decade has been telling. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last decade has been telling. 

Definitely not a recession from previous trends, just a continuation with some amplification/deamplification here or there.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last decade has been telling. 

Hey it’s exciting for Dewey though! 

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Well someone's in the trolling mood tonight!

I wasted $40 on lotto tickets.

dunce GIF

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12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s funny. This take around here even 10 years ago would have been met with an angry mob with pitchforks and torches (not atmospheric kind). In forum climate time, we’re only a blink of an eye away from global warming ceased in 1998/regime change thinking which dominated. Exciting times.

This will be remembered as the dustbowl era of PNW summers.

It goes a lot deeper than global warming.

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00Z GFS says we pick up right where we left off by time we get back home next Saturday.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-9808800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Phil said:

This will be remembered as the dustbowl era of PNW summers.

Eventually the SW drought will ease. Easy from the current POV to believe otherwise but history tells us otherwise.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Dave said:

The DP is up to 68 here. Low for Phil standards, but pretty extreme for Eugene standards. Heat index peaked at 106 today. 

Yup, it's 71F here. We won't get down to 65F tonight.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Eventually the SW drought will ease. Easy from the current POV to believe otherwise but history tells us otherwise.

Unfortunately, history tells us the SW drought may just be getting started.

A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Unfortunately, history tells us the SW drought may just be getting started.

Very true if you go back far enough. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Portland might be flirting with 100 on two consecutive weekends coming up.

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Unfortunately, history tells us the SW drought may just be getting started.

Possible. But I’d say it’s more likely a decadal thing. We’ll see! Or at least most, okay maybe some of us will! Or our kids will if they take really good care of themselves!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Unfortunately, history tells us the SW drought may just be getting started.

Depends on the timescale you look at.

Even during the medieval megadrought (which was of much greater amplitude and extent than anything observed in the modern era) the cycles of drought tended to last 20yrs or so, then relax for decade before coming back again.

Same was true of the early/middle 20th century which saw a roughly 20yr cycle of extreme drought in the SW US. Current cycle is roughly 15yrs long and is probably peaking now, a healthy El Niño is looming in 1 or 2 years.

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  • Longtimer

Lovely dusk! 68. 
I know most of you are absolutely dreading this and cannot wait for 42 degree drizzle again and that is fantastic! However I am soaking up every second of this weather because it’s almost over for another 10 months. 

2ECB3E13-7F93-4795-BA34-764DEEB7767C.jpeg

963C9729-0385-49EB-AE87-B304779EDFF0.jpeg

27FE57ED-2321-4C65-AC18-0A539640E25E.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Portland might be flirting with 100 on two consecutive weekends coming up.

Based on what? One goofy GFS run?

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

Summer 2001 was cooler than all but 2 summers since 1960 at OLM. That's an exceptional comparison.

Summers 2010 and 2011 were both easily below the long term normal at OLM.

A forum for the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Based on what? One goofy GFS run?

It's been a trend in the models to rebuild ridging in some manner.   Gaining traction now.    I will bookmark this post for next weekend.    You aren't doing too well on your predictions lately.    

Somehow we are ending up with one of the warmest Julys in history.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

It's been a trend in the models to rebuild ridging in some manner.   Gaining traction now.    I will bookmark this post for next weekend.    You are doing too well on your predictions lately.    

Somehow we are ending with one of the warmest Julys in history.

Not a single EPS member takes PDX above 100 next weekend.

Sit the hell down.

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Possible. But I’d say it’s more likely a decadal thing. We’ll see! Or at least most, okay maybe some of us will! Or our kids will if they take really good care of themselves!

I'm in SW Colorado currently (the Southwest) and we got DUMPED on with monsoonal rains today. Looking up!

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SO2 causes global cooling.   Tonga was almost all water vapor and stratospheric water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas   I am no expert... but I bet in a couple years there will be enough data to support a distinct warming effect from Tonga.

This is what many scientists are saying. It's rare for a volcanic eruption to cause global warming, but the Tonga eruption was pretty much unprecedented with the amount of water blasted into the stratosphere. I read that the amount of water vapor up there has increased by around 20% and will take 5-10 years to return to normal. Water vapor absorbs UV and as a result warms the atmosphere. I'd find a link to the article, but it seems like this is now a mobile phone only website and that's a major pain in the asss.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends on the timescale you look at.

Even during the medieval megadrought (which was of much greater amplitude and extent than anything observed in the modern era) the cycles of drought tended to last 20yrs or so, then relax for decade before coming back again.

Same was true of the early/middle 20th century which saw a roughly 20yr cycle of extreme drought in the SW US. Current cycle is roughly 15yrs long and is probably peaking now, a healthy El Niño is looming in 1 or 2 years.

Could be. Hope you're right.

A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Have another beer. 

I’m drinking vodka & diet coke tonight. Beer is overrated.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not a single EPS member takes PDX above 100 next weekend.

Sit the hell down.

I said flirting with 100.  

But yeah... we can't buy a warm day this summer.   Portland was only at 90+ degrees on about 40% of the days in July.   Weak sauce.

Anywhoooo... this might be fun to bump in a few days.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Could be. Hope you're right.

I want a niño so bad I could cry. Haven’t had a healthy event since 2016.

But we’re about as far away from a niño right now as we’ve ever been since WWII. Not exaggerating at all. Literally everything about the present system state is as La Niña favorable as I’ve ever seen in my life.

Going to be a monster one this winter. And another western US focused winter coming up.

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94, 91, 94, 95 for SEA if anyone want to keep tabs.... Tues-Fri

Pretty remarkable and persistent pattern. A carbon copy of each other for what's likely to be 6 straight days. 

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