On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Doinko]

Sorry to bring up something completely unrelated again... but from the heavy rain-snow event on 12/18 and 12/19, does anyone know how much snow the west side of the PDX metro had, around the Beaverton/Bethany/Hillsboro areas? I was out of town for that event so I don't know how much my area got.

[Requiem]

51 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Sorry to bring up something completely unrelated again... but from the heavy rain-snow event on 12/18 and 12/19, does anyone know how much snow the west side of the PDX metro had, around the Beaverton/Bethany/Hillsboro areas? I was out of town for that event so I don't know how much my area got.

Was that the anafront situation? I know my location up in the hills got about 3-4 inches of wet snow-- and I recall seeing some 2 inch reports from Washington County. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Was that the anafront situation? I know my location up in the hills got about 3-4 inches of wet snow-- and I recall seeing some 2 inch reports from Washington County. 

Yeah that's the one. I was out of town awaiting a major arctic outbreak to be slightly disappointed, but still managed ~4 inches of snow and a subfreezing high. I'm right around the base of the west hills at the west side. We did have an event on the 13th/14th that dropped a quick inch of snow with a heavy shower, and it was still around in the morning.

Don't the West Hills get pretty windy in East Wind situations because of how exposed they are? Wind is fun but sometimes it makes it hard to measure snow haha.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some light rain this morning. Not measurable at this point. Looks like SLE scored 0.01”.

[T-Town]

Smoke on water this morning. 

[Meatyorologist]

Nice fog layer over Lake WA. Low of 49°F.

[Meatyorologist]

Kind of incredible how green the biosphere still is. Despite it being July now and there having been a substantial heat wave just a week ago, things are still predominantly green. A massive difference over this last decade.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Kind of incredible how green the biosphere still is. Despite it being July now and there having been a substantial heat wave just a week ago, things are still predominantly green. A massive difference over this last decade.

By "biosphere" do you mean the lawns in Seattle?

The natural biosphere here is almost always green.    The lawns in Seattle turn brown every summer but that is not really part of our natural environment.  

[TT-SEA]

Sunny start here today... and the usual firework haze on the morning after the 4th is completely missing.     Obviously enough natural ventilation this morning to prevent it from accumulating in the valley.

[Omegaraptor]

Pretty impressive cloud cover map for July 5th.

[MossMan]

Must be July 5th! First day of summer! HAHAHAHA. 

[TT-SEA]

That big trade wind burst has been going on since late June without any significant effect on the SSTAs yet.    I linked to a video last week that talked about this and the guy said that the warm sub-surface water would rise to the surface in the eastern ENSO region and then spread west with the trade winds.    That might be happening now but I am no expert on this stuff.

 

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 7-day change map... looks like the water off the PNW coast has continued to warm along with the eastern ENSO region.

 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny start here today... and the usual firework haze on the morning after the 4th is completely missing.     Obviously enough natural ventilation this morning to prevent it from accumulating in the valley.

Interesting. The haze is quite pronounced here. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, T-Town said:

Interesting. The haze is quite pronounced here. 

Yeah... I see it around Seattle on the web cams as well.    We got lucky out here.  Normally it is really bad in the Snoqualmie Valley too.  

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 52 here this morning. Last nights model runs seem to be trending a little wetter for this upcoming week. Euro seemed to back off on the heat a bit while the gfs was still pretty hot for mid month. We will see what the 12z brings shortly. 

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That big trade wind burst has been going on since late June without any significant effect on the SSTAs yet.    I linked to a video last week that talked about this and the guy said that the warm sub-surface water would rise to the surface in the eastern ENSO region and then spread west with the trade winds.    That might be happening now but I am no expert on this stuff.

 

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how ENSO works. You have to account for fluid inertia of water, the upwelling wave will not develop instantantly, but will take a few weeks to generate.

And there has already been an effect on SSTAs in the WPAC, at the longitudes and latitudes where the trade burst is occurring. However, this is not a result of upwelling, simply evaporative cooling. The upwelling wave along the equator comes a bit later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. 0.06" of rain in Eugene this morning. Simply astounding to see rain in July. 

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 7-day change map... looks like the water off the PNW coast has continued to warm along with the eastern ENSO region.

 

The water in the west-central tropical Pacific is what matters for the warm season circulation over the NPAC. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how ENSO works. You have to account for fluid inertia of water, the upwelling wave will not develop instantantly, but will take a few weeks to generate.

And there has already been an effect on SSTAs in the WPAC, at the longitudes and latitudes where it is occurring. This is not a result if upwelling, simply evaporative cooling. The upwelling wave along the equator comes a bit later.

I wonder if the net effect will be just to keep any sort of Nino from forming... rather going into a super Nina.    

[TacomaWx]

Euro, Cmc, Gfs

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I wonder if the net effect will be just to keep any sort of Nino from forming... rather going into a super Nina.    

No, an upwelling wave will be generated and return the Pacific into a deep La Niña state.

Hey, I wish it wasn’t so, but it’s pretty clear to me.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. 0.06" of rain in Eugene this morning. Simply astounding to see rain in July. 

Could be a long time before it happens again. 

[NWbyNW]

Back at home and it's a refreshing 57F at the moment.  The sky is overcast but smokey.  Due the the uproarious patriotism from the night and morning before, skies around the Puget Sound are smokey.  Closer to the water it's mostly good, but move inland abit the air quality declines.  To the north the air is moderate, while heading south, areas become unhealthy for sensitive groups.  It's a smokey soup out there right now.  Smells like freedom.

Have a good day all. 

[TacomaWx]

Looks like we could get some rain in a few hours up here in western WA…radar looks like there’s some decent rain showers in the willamette valley moving north. 

[Cloud]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I wonder if the net effect will be just to keep any sort of Nino from forming... rather going into a super Nina.    

I really don't see anything at this point that will prevent a 3rd Nina from happening. 

[TT-SEA]

I was looking back at our posts from last week concerning the 4th... and the GFS was promising a nice day back then while the ECMWF was showing cold and rainy.      I made a comment about wishing the ECMWF and GFS were flipped and the ECMWF was showing nice weather instead of the GFS.    But ultimately the GFS a week ago was much closer to reality than the ECMWF.    The GFS actually caved as it got closer and then went back to its original solution.    

  

[Omegaraptor]

Not every July morning is it sunny at Tim and Mossman’s place and overcast in Chico and Susanville.

Currently mostly cloudy here in Sunriver with on and off sprinkles. Grants Pass had half an inch of rain yesterday (that can't be a common occurrence) and Medford over a quarter inch. Looks like Mt Shasta City picked up another 0.15" a couple hours ago as well.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I was looking back at our posts from last week concerning the 4th... and the GFS was promising a nice day back then while the ECMWF was showing cold and rainy.      I made a comment about wishing the ECMWF and GFS were flipped and the ECMWF was showing nice weather instead of the GFS.    But ultimately the GFS a week ago was much closer to reality than the ECMWF.    The GFS actually caved as it got closer and then went back to its original solution.    

  

The GFS was full of s**t on Sunday. And way too far offshore with the ULL as well.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

 

Hate to hair-split a nice narrative, but it would appear that July rain in Eugene is actually not that unusual.

Only 15 of the last 82 Julys have been totally dry. Julys with measurable rain included a 24-year consecutive stretch from 1974-1997. The overall mean is 0.43".

0.05" here on the day with light sprinkles at times.

Lol I remember Andrew giving me a hard time 3 years ago because it was raining here in July 2019 saying it’s not unusual to get rain in July

 nice to see it’s raining down there though! Should be more through the western parts of WA/OR the next couple days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol I remember Andrew giving me a hard time 3 years ago because it was raining here in July 2019 saying it’s not unusual to get rain in July

 nice to see it’s raining down there though! Should be more through the western parts of WA/OR the next couple days. 

Tim says it rains every day in July!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim says it rains every day in July!

Pretty variable up here.   Many times it barely rains at all... and sometimes is rains frequently.    Most recently that happened in 2019 when it rained on almost half the days in July here.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim says it rains every day in July!

It’d be unusual if it didn’t rain at his house everyday speaking of rain though might rain at your house and Salem soon! 

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol I remember Andrew giving me a hard time 3 years ago because it was raining here in July 2019 saying it’s not unusual to get rain in July

 nice to see it’s raining down there though! Should be more through the western parts of WA/OR the next couple days. 

SEA average 0.60" for July even though it is the driest month but it shouldn't be unusual for it to rain around here. Last few years or so were quite anomalous in terms of July rainfall. If we are to get any dryness in, better be this month because we'll flip that switch fast come late August. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

It’d be unusual if it didn’t rain at his house everyday speaking of rain though might rain at your house and Salem soon! 

We had some sprinkles earlier this morning! 

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim says it rains every day in July!

About half the days at SEA's July daily rainfall record are above 0.50" 

Record for:

most is 0.81 on July 9 1995 

least is 0.11 on July 15 2001. 

 

With short term memory, these past few years have caused us to see July differently. 

[Deweydog]

Even during the soul crusher summer of 2015, PDX managed over half an inch of liquid equivalent during what is according to climo, the hottest/driest weekend of the year.

July rain is REAL, despite it being generally fleeting according to climo.

 

[The Blob]

It's  sunny here this morning. 

[Timmy Supercell]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Even during the soul crusher summer of 2015, PDX managed over half an inch of liquid equivalent during what is according to climo, the hottest/driest weekend of the year.

July rain is REAL, despite it being generally fleeting according to climo.

 

That was one of my best years for convection. And the smoke left about as fast as it came that year because of the wet t'storms that summer. Total opposite to 2018.

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

By "biosphere" do you mean the lawns in Seattle?

The natural biosphere here is almost always green.    The lawns in Seattle turn brown every summer but that is not really part of our natural environment.  

I meant the biosphere. The city forests are damp and show no signs of browning. Often during recent summers, ferns and bushes would crackle from the dryness come July.

Maybe it's been different 1000k ft up nestled between two mountains. Wouldn't surprise me if things remained moist even during summer 2018.