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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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40 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA average 0.60" for July even though it is the driest month but it shouldn't be unusual for it to rain around here. Last few years or so were quite anomalous in terms of July rainfall. If we are to get any dryness in, better be this month because we'll flip that switch fast come late August. 

Yeah there’s been a couple blanks here in recent years…but not too uncommon historically to get little to none some years. Here’s july and august the last few years in the 2013-2021 period. 
July                  August

2021-0.00”    0.08”

2020-0.37”    0.38”

2019-0.99”    1.57”

2018-0.03”    0.15”

2017-0.00”    0.00”

2016-0.61”    0.43”

2015-0.13”    2.54”

2014-0.54”   2.08”

2013-0.00”   0.70”

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I meant the biosphere. The forests are damp and show no signs of browning. Often during recent summers, ferns and bushes would crackle from the dryness come July.

Maybe it's been different 1000k ft up nestled between two mountains. Wouldn't surprise me if things remained moist even during summer 2018.

No... the forests dried out significantly even here during July in 2015, 2017, 2018, and of course 2021.     The only year that stayed really green for the entire summer during our 20 years here was in 2019.   Even 2008 and 2011 turned pretty dry during the summer.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... the forests dried out significantly even here during July in 2015, 2017, 2018, and of course 2021.     The only year that stayed really green for the entire summer during our 20 years here was in 2019.   Even 2008 and 2011 turned pretty dry during the summer.

Doesn’t this contradict your original reply claiming the biosphere is always green? 🤔 

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got down to 46 last night at the house.  windows opened, AC off. was nice but I'm quarantining in the basement.  Wife has Covid (it wiped out her whole office at work) I'm still negative somehow (just tested again), I guess it's smart I moved to the basement right when we found out she was positive on Sunday.

 

Anything new to complain about today other than constant/daily mass shootings?

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53 minutes ago, Cloud said:

About half the days at SEA's July daily rainfall record are above 0.50" 

Record for:

most is 0.81 on July 9 1995 

least is 0.11 on July 15 2001. 

 

With short term memory, these past few years have caused us to see July differently. 

July is an exceptionally dry month here though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... the forests dried out significantly even here during July in 2015, 2017, 2018, and of course 2021.     The only year that stayed really green for the entire summer during our 20 years here was in 2019.   Even 2008 and 2011 turned pretty dry during the summer.

...I meant city forests, like Discovery Park, Carkeek, Magnuson, ect. Hence the edit to ky post

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

got down to 46 last night at the house.  windows opened, AC off. was nice but I'm quarantining in the basement.  Wife has Covid (it wiped out her whole office at work) I'm still negative somehow (just tested again), I guess it's smart I moved to the basement right when we found out she was positive on Sunday.

 

Anything new to complain about today other than constant/daily mass shootings?

I wish those idiots would stop.  Aside from the obvious harm to people, it's giving the Democrats a constant narrative for gun control.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wut?

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The natural biosphere here is almost always green.    The lawns in Seattle turn brown every summer but that is not really part of our natural environment.  

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... the forests dried out significantly even here during July in 2015, 2017, 2018, and of course 2021.     The only year that stayed really green for the entire summer during our 20 years here was in 2019.   Even 2008 and 2011 turned pretty dry during the summer.

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wish those idiots would stop.  Aside from the obvious harm to people, it's giving the Democrats a constant narrative for gun control.

I don't think those idiots care whose narrative they are feeding. They are evil, insane, and delusional. One look at the animal who pulled off the one yesterday and you would know it should be locked away in a dungeon never to see the light of day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

July is an exceptionally dry month here though.

Not really denying July is a dry month, it's dry as much as November is exceptionally wet. 

Still normal rainfall for July is still around 0.60" -- not completely bone dry as we've seen in recent years.  Though it does put a dent in the normal rates to what's typically the driest month for SEA.

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 52 here this morning. Last nights model runs seem to be trending a little wetter for this upcoming week. Euro seemed to back off on the heat a bit while the gfs was still pretty hot for mid month. We will see what the 12z brings shortly. 

Kind of interesting to note the 6z EPS took a decided step toward cooler at day 6 (the furthest out it goes) vs the 0z.   Trough is a bit closer and ridge signal over us is weaker.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wish those idiots would stop.  Aside from the obvious harm to people, it's giving the Democrats a constant narrative for gun control.

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think those idiots care whose narrative they are feeding. They are evil, insane, and delusional. One look at the animal who pulled off the one yesterday and you would know it should be locked away in a dungeon never to see the light of day. 

Let's keep this in the right thread guys.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It was still green.   But was not moist and damp.   

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... the forests dried out significantly even here during July in 2015, 2017, 2018, and of course 2021.     The only year that stayed really green for the entire summer during our 20 years here was in 2019.   Even 2008 and 2011 turned pretty dry during the summer.

 

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

All this biosphere talk has reminded me of this classic:

image.jpeg
 

Two weeks after its release it SNOWED and then colded.

Can't believe I missed that one.  Looks really top notch.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of interesting to note the 6z EPS took a decided step toward cooler at day 6 (the furthest out it goes) vs the 0z.   Trough is a bit closer and ridge signal over us is weaker.

We will see what the euro spits out for us…seemed to bring the trough in faster which really stunted the heatwave for next week which was nice to see. 

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If anyone thinks I am being genuinely unfair or biased, please tell me. I don't want to be like that.

As for the KY thing... That may have been a misspelling of the word "my" since the 'k' is right next to the 'm' on my phone's keypad. That or I really like the weather too much... 😬

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If anyone thinks I am being genuinely unfair or biased, please tell me. I don't want to be like that.

As for the KY thing... That may have been a misspelling of the word "my" since the 'k' is right next to the 'm' on my phone's keypad. That or I really like the weather too much... 😬

 

Auto correct uses your most commonly used words, terms or phrases, so... that's probably what it was.  To each their own.

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The trajectory stays just flat enough on the ECMWF during the early part of week 2 to spare us any real heat.  An improvement from the 0z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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At this point a 90+ day for SEA anywhere in the next 10 days looks exceedingly unlikely.  Even the very warm biased GFS meteograms show 91 on the warmest day.  ECMWF shows 81.  Seems like 85 or 86 might be a good call right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The trajectory stays just flat enough on the ECMWF during the early part of week 2 to spare us any real heat.  An improvement from the 0z.

I like the later part of the 12Z ECMWF run for sustained warmth compared to the 00Z run.   More digging occurring to the west of the main trough. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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EPS is cooler about a week out than the 0z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Big daddy derecho heading for @hawkstwelve.

Dude is right in line to get the bow head. Solid wind max in there.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KHON&hours=72

02CBCC03-4629-40B0-B935-F1EBA67916C7.jpeg

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Predictably conflicting reports!

Had a brief shower this morning with a low of 58. Picked up .02” so it was measurable. Looks like we might get a little more at points today if we’re lucky.

76/51 yesterday. Partly cloudy and nice. Great weather for the 4th. Watched fireworks downtown at the Blues Fest last night.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like the SPC is picking up on that wake low near the northern edge of the derecho...

image.png

The strongest winds also seem to be at the back of the line, and even well behind it. Classic progressive derecho riding the speed shear/CAPE gradient with a strong rear inflow jet/wake low.

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25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Predictably conflicting reports!

Had a brief shower this morning with a low of 58. Picked up .02” so it was measurable. Looks like we might get a little more at points today if we’re lucky.

76/51 yesterday. Partly cloudy and nice. Great weather for the 4th. Watched fireworks downtown at the Blues Fest last night.

Not conflicting at all.  Less of a heat spike and also a more sustainable warm pattern.   Those two aspects are related.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point a 90+ day for SEA anywhere in the next 10 days looks exceedingly unlikely.  Even the very warm biased GFS meteograms show 91 on the warmest day.  ECMWF shows 81.  Seems like 85 or 86 might be a good call right now.

So that would be 45F for me? 😁

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1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

 

Auto correct uses your most commonly used words, terms or phrases, so... that's probably what it was.  To each their own.

I don't have autocorrect enabled... ;)

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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This upcoming hot weather is starting to be reflected on forecasting models.  Everyone gets hot, but less so north of Seattle.

Spokane is hot right away with highs in the 80s, and reaching 94F by Tuesday, 95F Wed, and another 94F on Thurs.  Who knows how far it will continue.

Seattle is currently showing one day of 80F degrees on Tuesday.  Otherwise it's a reasonable mid-seventies.  After Tuesday's 80F, it will be high seventies. 

Everett and points north will be the 'cool' spot at the moment.  No day is shown to reach 80F with the hottest temperature being Tuesday at 78F.  Otherwise temps are in the low to mid seventies. 

Bellingham The hottest Bellingham is shown to get at the moment is 78F with temps on the low seventies until Tuesday when they reach the mid seventies.  By far the coolest location of the cities listed here. 

Eugene is hot with low eighties and at least two days of 90F starting Monday. 

Portland shows hot temps of low nineties and high eighties every day after Monday.

Medford hits triple digits on Monday.  Sunday shows 93F, 102F on Mon, 98F on Tues, and high 90s through the rest of their week according to the forecast model.

We will certainly be living up to the hottest and driest time of the year.

 

Screen Shot 2022-07-05 at 1.25.09 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-05 at 1.24.05 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-05 at 1.24.53 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-05 at 1.22.23 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-05 at 1.23.11 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-05 at 1.23.43 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-05 at 1.25.27 PM.png

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