On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Meatyorologist]

Yellow plus blue is green, simple. Sun has a slight yellow tint even at moderate angles. Water is blue, and transparent. Voila.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Petrichor!

'twas an ozone storm on the way home from work today

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New July ECMWF seasonals. The signal for Fall(Sep/Oct/Nov) shows the PNW slightly wetter than normal. The Central part of the US is drier than normal.

 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

New July ECMWF seasonals. The signal for Fall(Sep/Oct/Nov) shows the PNW slightly wetter than normal. The Central part of the US is drier than normal.

 

Actually has a western trough signal in August.  

Haven’t seen it depict that since 2010, either.

[Phil]

ECMWF seasonal out to January 2023.

Ridge bridge! 

[Meatyorologist]

19 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

New July ECMWF seasonals. The signal for Fall(Sep/Oct/Nov) shows the PNW slightly wetter than normal. The Central part of the US is drier than normal.

 

Weird that it's defaulting to a western ridge signal.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Actually has a western trough signal in August.  

Haven’t seen it depict that since 2010, either.

Really stretching it there...  

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really stretching it there...  

Roughly 40/52 members have the western trough/offshore ridge. Can’t post that graphic here, though.

Which btw is the favored pattern through at least the first 3 weeks of the month. Late in the month that might change.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Roughly 40/52 members have the western trough/offshore ridge.

Which is the favored pattern through at least the first 3 weeks of the month. Late in the month that might change.

Are you still thinking hot September as Niña climo often goes? Or early fall?

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Are you still thinking hot September as Niña climo often goes? Or early fall?

Yeah, unfortunately. Late August and September have potential to be gross.

[smerfylicious]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah, unfortunately. Late August and September have potential to be gross.

Wake me up when September ends

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Jginmartini Played gearhart links today. Second off the tee at 7am and it was cool and calm with a few raindrops, but just about perfect links golf weather for scoring. Shot 77 in 2.5 hours….if only every round etc etc

Have not played down there….wow, that green looks fabulous!  Great game! That will keep ya coming back

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah, unfortunately. Late August and September have potential to be gross.

In a couple weeks you will be predicting cold and wet for September. 

[Blizzard777]

.02 and 62*

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In a couple weeks you will be predicting cold and wet for September. 

Well I certainly hope so. Would be nice if the West didn’t roast and burn for once.

Will be tough to make it through that tail section of summer without another multiweek period of ridging, though. You guys lucked out with this current pattern being neutered compared to what it could have been.

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Have not played down there….wow, that green looks fabulous!  Great game! That will keep ya coming back

It was in really great shape. Agree with @Deweydog its right up there with my favorite WA courses

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

I hope so. Would be nice if the West didn’t roast and burn for once.

Will be tough to make it through that tail section of summer without another multiweek period of ridging, though. You guys lucked out with this current pattern being neutered compared to what it could have been.

How have we lucked out?   We are supposedly following years like 1999, 2001, 2008, 2011. etc. and none of those years had any extended heat.    I think this is the way this summer is supposed to go... no luck needed with a strengthening Nina.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How have we lucked out?   We are supposedly following years like 1999, 2001, 2008, 2011. etc. and none of those years had any extended heat.    I think this is the way this summer is supposed to go... no luck needed with a strengthening Nina.

Last June is an example of what can go wrong if the pieces come together in exactly the wrong way at the wrong time in a Niña year. Other tragic examples include 1967 and 2017.

Thankfully that has been avoided thus far.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Cutoff low should finally get the boot by the weekend, but it's a weatherman's woe and the goalposts keep moving.

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

That's insane!

Here's an explanation for why the sky was green.

For an explanation of the sharp contrast in colors, AccuWeather Meteorologist Isaac Longley points to the late-afternoon fuel source of the storms.

"Thunderstorms tend to occur later in the day due (to) the sun's energy during the day helping to fuel them," Longley stated. "As we know, the sun appears more red later in the day as it approaches the horizon."

Once light underneath tall thunderclouds is introduced, the combination of red sunlight and blue lights leads to the green colors engulfing the sky.

"Light underneath a tall thundercloud appears blue due to the scattering by water droplets," Longley said. "When the blue light is illuminated by the red light from the setting sun, it appears green, which is why some thunderstorms have that greenish hue to it."

https://news.yahoo.com/south-dakota-skies-green-amid-001944655.html

Always heard about green skies before big storms growing up in Georgia, but never saw it with my own eyes.  Word was if the sky turned green you'd better make sure that you made things right with your higher power because you were pretty much f**ked.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Last June is an example of what can go wrong if the pieces come together in exactly the wrong way at the wrong time in a Niña year. Other tragic examples include 1967 and 2017.

Thankfully that has been avoided thus far.

1967 and 2017 were tragic?    Virtual signal much?   

The ONI was -0.2 in AMJ 1967 and +0.3 in 2017.     It was -1.0 this year.    Big difference.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In a couple weeks you will be predicting cold and wet for September. 

No Indian summer?

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Jginmartini Played gearhart links today. Second off the tee at 7am and it was cool and calm with a few raindrops, but just about perfect links golf weather for scoring. Shot 77 in 2.5 hours….if only every round etc etc

 

77....not too shabby.  I usually average about 66-69 myself.

 

 

 

 

 

For the back 9.  I'm in the 50's on the front nine.   

I like to think of it as "getting my money's worth"

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

77....not too shabby.  I usually average about 66-69 myself.

 

 

 

 

 

For the back 9.  I'm in the 50's on the front nine.   

I like to think of it as "getting my money's worth"

 

You want your cost per swing to be as low as possible.   The cost is fixed... so better take lots of swings!  

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

1967 and 2017 were tragic?    Virtual signal much?   

The ONI was -0.2 in AMJ 1967 and +0.3 in 2017.     It was -1.0 this year.    Big difference.  

You mean virtue signal?

[Phil]

Dewpoint peaked at 79°F today. Stupid how easy it happens now. Today was actually a negative departure.

In the early 20th century we could go 4-5 years without a number like that. Now it’s basically every week.

[Doinko]

58 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Weird that it's defaulting to a western ridge signal.

Winter is over

[Phil]

Canadian!

[Meatyorologist]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

FSD recorded an 80 mph gust, which is no 96 mph like in Huron or 99 in Howard, SD but still fairly decent. A few fences are down, some flower potters destroyed, garbage cans blown over, etc. A good whack but nothing too crazy, at least IMBY.

South Dakota is great, if not for anything but the weather alone. Not only is it so cool to experience legit severe weather but it's sunny and warm almost every day in the summer. (Warning: Preference incoming....) That is really nice and refreshing to not have gray and rain, especially after hearing how this spring has been over there. Just not our cup of tea. Although the constant heat and humidity is whole other thing.

As for the other stuff here, I'll just say we definitely agree more with how things are done here vs WA but it's still not without it's flaws. Don't believe everything the Governor sells ya.

 

I'm glad you're enjoying where you live. I think everyone deserves to live in a region where they want.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS has a stellar thunderstorm pattern in the LR

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Canadian!

BC! BC!

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

Canadian!

00Z GEFS at day 10...  

 

[TacomaWx]

Seems like we’re in a pretty good spot for on and off showers tonight they just keep moving in. Up to 0.05” and 0.11” for July. 

[snow_wizard]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

Another

 

 

Wow!  Sounds like this winter could be a dandy here.  I don't think anyone expected the atmosphere to remain profoundly La Nina this summer, and now this!

[snow_wizard]

Really liking the looks of the GFS for week two.  Nice pattern for below normal temps with limited precip.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really liking the looks of the GFS for week two.  Nice pattern for below normal temps with limited precip.

Buyer beware... the GEFS looks completely different for that period. 

[snow_wizard]

For the record....I'm on board with troughs that dig down the BC coast or dig in from the interior of Canada.  The ones I hate in the spring / summer is when they dig far enough offshore to give us days of nasty gloom.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Buyer beware... the GEFS looks completely different for that period. 

Yeah...I see it has the trough axis further west.  The 12z EPS liked the trough more east like the 0z GFS with -PNA returning.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

FSD recorded an 80 mph gust, which is no 96 mph like in Huron or 99 in Howard, SD but still fairly decent. A few fences are down, some flower potters destroyed, garbage cans blown over, etc. A good whack but nothing too crazy, at least IMBY.

South Dakota is great, if not for anything but the weather alone. Not only is it so cool to experience legit severe weather but it's sunny and warm almost every day in the summer. (Warning: Preference incoming....) That is really nice and refreshing to not have gray and rain, especially after hearing how this spring has been over there. Just not our cup of tea. Although the constant heat and humidity is whole other thing.

As for the other stuff here, I'll just say we definitely agree more with how things are done here vs WA but it's still not without it's flaws. Don't believe everything the Governor sells ya.

 

It's more what I have heard about your governor.  Glad you like it there.  Truth be known I can live without too much of the severe stuff, but cold and snow is another matter.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...I see it has the trough axis further west.  The 12z EPS liked the trough more east like the 0z GFS with -PNA returning.

ECMWF looks nice too. Interesting how similar all the operational runs are given the long lead time.