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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


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59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am sure we end up with an above average July. It's been relatively cool the first week of the month, but because of the very mild lows, most of us are just barely below average. Won't be as bad as 2021 or 2018 though. 

A few weeks ago I would have been more open to the possibility of a warmer outcome, not so much now. Though anything is possible.

The tropical forcing/GWO is more favorable for western warmth during the first half of the month, and it doesn’t look like it’ll amount to much outside a quick heat spike mid-month (which is at the tail end of the warm subseasonal state, that will be ending ~ 7/20, +/- a few days).

Later in July, large scale subsidence envelops the dateline/WPAC and AAM tendency goes negative again. That is a textbook Niña/+NPO look, and is very unlikely to produce a warm outcome in the PNW, absent some fluky wavebreak.

And furthermore, each time I’ve anticipated a warm pattern in the PNW this spring/summer, it has underperformed and/or been cut short. Possibly some recency bias on my part, as in recent years, almost every time the MJO crossed the West-Pacific Warm Pool, it had culminated in massive western torching. Where-as this year the WPAC has been relatively submissive.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

A few weeks ago I would have been more open to the possibility of a warmer outcome, not so much now. Though anything is possible.

The tropical forcing/GWO is more favorable for western warmth during the first half of the month, and it doesn’t look like it’ll amount to much outside a quick heat spike mid-month (which is at the tail end of the warm subseasonal state, that will be ending ~ 7/20, +/- a few days).

Later in July, large scale subsidence envelops the dateline/WPAC and AAM tendency goes negative again. That is a textbook Niña/+NPO look, and is very unlikely to produce a warm outcome in the PNW, absent some fluky wavebreak.

And furthermore, each time I’ve anticipated a warm pattern in the PNW this spring/summer, it has underperformed and/or been cut short. Possibly some recency bias on my part, as in recent years, almost every time the MJO crossed the West-Pacific Warm Pool, it had culminated in massive western torching. Where-as this year the WPAC has been relatively submissive.

Yeah it won't be a hot July, but I am almost certain we will end up above the 30 year average. Except probably not Sea-Tac which has their own issues. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it won't be a hot July, but I am almost certain we will end up above the 30 year average. Except probably not Sea-Tac which has their own issues. 

Have no idea how Salem/etc operates in these patterns.

For PDX I’ll wager 75-25 cool-warm odds.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Amazing how toned down the upcoming heat has gotten over the past 24 hours. Probably going to get a couple 90s at PDX (Sorry Dewey), but does not look like an extended run of heat. 

I’m sure we will get a decent run of heat at some point this summer but we will see. This doesn’t look like it’ll be it though. 

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Looking HAWT

sfct.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Man nice euro run. Looking like a couple days in the low to mid 80s then back to some precip chances in the long range. First half of the summer looks to turn out very good for my preferences lol. 

Same. Off to a great start so far. Definitely don't mind the occasional heat when it stays occasional and there's a variety of patterns being offered. Feeling a bit 2019 like.

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

That is a pretty big range from Central Sound to the WV. I think the heat will close the gaps in the coming days. 

For whatever reason the Euro temp map seems to really overestimate the cooling effect of Puget Sound. It regularly spits out afternoon temps 5+ degrees too cool for Seattle.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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43 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Same. Off to a great start so far. Definitely don't mind the occasional heat when it stays occasional and there's a variety of patterns being offered. Feeling a bit 2019 like.

Lots of warm, moist southerly flow too. Last few days have been cooler but it's been an abberation.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Moderate rain now... we are actually getting something measureable finally on the back side of that slow moving band.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Lots of warm, moist southerly flow too. Last few days have been cooler but it's been an abberation.

Suspect that the incoming trough that's now showing up around Day 10 on all of the models will offer something similar. 70-75 degree days with rain chances like this week are great summer weather. 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Same. Off to a great start so far. Definitely don't mind the occasional heat when it stays occasional and there's a variety of patterns being offered. Feeling a bit 2019 like.

Let's hope this winter isn't a SNOOZEFEST. Though when you look at it in the context of the cold fall and very chilly February/March, it wasn't bad. Just seemed like weaksauce compared to February 2019. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

This morning was amazing. Not so amazing now. Still dry at the moment and 69. 

07302E0F-CD03-4CBD-B801-8F7CFEFD14C7.jpeg

What is not amazing about this? 69 and cloudy is perfect summer weather IMO. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's hope this winter isn't a SNOOZEFEST. Though when you look at it in the context of the cold fall and very chilly February/March, it wasn't bad. Just seemed like weaksauce compared to February 2019. 

If this winter ends up a dud, I’d be disappointed but not in the least bit surprised. IMO the two most likely outcomes are 08-09 or 16-17 tier monster, and dud.

Either way the Cascades are right nearby. Let’s hope it is not a torchfest or endlessly dry. Some winters that are pretty mediocre in the lowlands can still be pretty epic at ski resort level.

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If this winter ends up a dud, I’d be disappointed but not in the least bit surprised. IMO the two most likely outcomes are 08-09 or 16-17 tier monster, and dud.

Either way the Cascades are right nearby. Let’s hope it is not a torchfest or endlessly dry.

I think we can do better than either of those winters... It's unlikely, but possible. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we can do better than either of those winters... It's unlikely, but possible. 

IMO if any modern winter can pull off a 30 day long West-wide Arctic icebox like Jan 1937 or 1949, or something truly incredible of that nature, it’s this one.

But even just a regionwide Arctic blast would be a massive win at this point.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

IMO if any modern winter can pull off a 30 day long West-wide Arctic icebox like Jan 1937 or 1949, or something truly incredible of that nature, it’s this one.

But even just a regionwide Arctic blast would be a massive win at this point.

Agreed. The persistence of this -ENSO troughy regime has been remarkable. April would have been a 1969 repeat in Jan.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Same. Off to a great start so far. Definitely don't mind the occasional heat when it stays occasional and there's a variety of patterns being offered. Feeling a bit 2019 like.

Yeah it’s really been great so far and the next 10 days don’t look bad either. Could really enjoy a smoke free summer if we keep at this pace. 

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Agreed. The persistence of this -ENSO troughy regime has been remarkable. April would have been a 1969 repeat in Jan.

I have my doubts about this statement. Although tomorrow you’ll probably hear me talking about how October 2019 was an off-season January 1949. We can’t really say for sure.

Although for PDX area you have to go back to the 1930s to find anything comparable in April.

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35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's hope this winter isn't a SNOOZEFEST. Though when you look at it in the context of the cold fall and very chilly February/March, it wasn't bad. Just seemed like weaksauce compared to February 2019. 

Any of the late September through late October 2019 troughs or the mid March 2020 trough would have been a delicious event had they landed in midwinter. That plus the border-hugger in January 2020 (plus Covid) made it a fairly unlucky winter in the grand scheme of things, rather than a full fledged turd.

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19 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

IMO if any modern winter can pull off a 30 day long West-wide Arctic icebox like Jan 1937 or 1949, or something truly incredible of that nature, it’s this one.

But even just a regionwide Arctic blast would be a massive win at this point.

February 2019 made me rethink what is possible. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Agreed. The persistence of this -ENSO troughy regime has been remarkable. April would have been a 1969 repeat in Jan.

The rate of descending westerly shear/+QBO is also unprecedented. Stars do seem to be aligning at the moment.

I’m looking for anything that could screw it up but everything is essentially perfect. Almost too perfect. :lol: 

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Didn’t 2010/11 have multiple arctic blasts in the PNW? One in November and other in February?

That was also the most heartbreaking winter I’ve ever experienced. Boxing Day rug pull hurts to this day. 😭 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Any of the late September through late October 2019 troughs or the mid March 2020 trough would have been a delicious event had they landed in midwinter. That plus the border-hugger in January 2020 (plus Covid) made it a fairly unlucky winter in the grand scheme of things, rather than a full fledged turd.

Reroll that winter setup/background state 100 times, and probably 95 times you end up with a better outcome. 

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Just now, Phil said:

Didn’t 2010/11 have multiple arctic blasts in the PNW? One in November and other in February?

That was also the most heartbreaking winter I’ve ever experienced. Boxing Day rug pull hurts to this day. 😭 

Yes, and then an extremely cool spring... I would say that was a very solid winter for the Puget Sound. Decent down here, but not great below 1000'. In a lot of ways this past winter was pretty similar to 2010-11. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

The rate of descending westerly shear/+QBO is also unprecedented. Stars do seem to be aligning at the moment.

I’m looking for anything that could screw it up but everything is essentially perfect. Almost too perfect. :lol: 

Polar vortex getting stuck in Siberia/Mongolia again?

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Reroll that winter setup/background state 100 times, and probably 95 times you end up with a better outcome. 

2019/20 was some very raw luck out there. TPV got trapped in exactly the wrong location at the wrong time, preventing what would have been a major -NPO wavebreak and subsequent SSW/arctic blast into the west-central CONUS.

I remember that fail clearly.

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