On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Didn’t 2010/11 have multiple arctic blasts in the PNW? One in November and other in February?

That was also the most heartbreaking winter I’ve ever experienced. Boxing Day rug pull hurts to this day.  

November and February were pretty legit and we had a near miss in January too. Very similar to January 2005 and 2020 in terms of being so close yet with far. What coulda been an amazing week amounted to 1” of snow that was gone the next morning but the other events that winter totally made up for it. 

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

2019/20 was some very raw luck out there. TPV got trapped in exactly the wrong location at the wrong time, preventing what would have been a major -NPO wavebreak and subsequent SSW/arctic blast into the west-central CONUS.

I remember that fail clearly.

Think you once said those insane 1950/1969 repeat outcomes were actually plausible if things had gone right.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Think you once said those insane 1950/1969 repeat outcomes were actually plausible if things had gone right.

It will happen again someday. Maybe not as cold as that but a 21st century equivalent will eventually happen. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Polar vortex getting stuck in Siberia/Mongolia again?

That would be a good thing lol, amplifies WPO surf and triggers W1 strat response. At least if TPV is centered in E-Siberia.

If it ends up over Scandinavia/Greenland, that would hurt, but with QBO/Niña NPAC High response maximized at this point in the solar cycle, I don’t think even that would prevent a cold winter.

Only real failsauce scenario I can envision would be a 1975/76 or 1999/00 type outcome with a supermassive black hole over Alaska/Beaufort Sea, but even that wouldn’t culminate in a torch, more of a cool/zonal outcome.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

November and February were pretty legit and we had a near miss in January too. Very similar to January 2005 and 2020 in terms of being so close yet with far. What coulda been an amazing week amounted to 1” of snow that was gone the next morning but the other events that winter totally made up for it. 

That was the winter of last minute rug pulls everywhere, apparently.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like 0.25" fell here today. Almost halfway to the monthly average.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That was the winter of last minute rug pulls everywhere, apparently.

Except Alaska

[Phil]

And unless something disrupts this cycle of the QBO, we will have westerly anoms @ 50mb going into next spring/summer, which is not favorable for El Niño growth (tendency towards warm/shallow tropopause and reduced MJO/WWB amplitude).

4-year La Niña?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

And unless something disrupts this cycle of the QBO, we will have westerly anoms @ 50mb going into next spring/summer, which is not favorable for El Niño growth (tendency towards warm/shallow tropopause and reduced MJO/WWB amplitude).

4-year La Niña?  

Or more of a neutral like 2012-13? 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Didn’t 2010/11 have multiple arctic blasts in the PNW? One in November and other in February?

That was also the most heartbreaking winter I’ve ever experienced. Boxing Day rug pull hurts to this day.  

December 2010 was also a true throwback month with the -NAO controlling things and coupling with the strong Nina. The Southeast had one of its coldest Decembers on record, even going back to the mid 1800s. And western Europe was frigid with the UK recording its coldest December since 1890 and coldest month period since February 1986.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Truly a morning worth rejoicing. Like a Cascades glacier, the sight of a July morning rainfall will soon be a beautiful, far distant memory.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

December 2010 was also a true throwback month with the -NAO controlling things and coupling with the strong Nina. The Southeast had one of its coldest Decembers on record, even going back to the mid 1800s. And western Europe was frigid with the UK recording its coldest December since 1890 and coldest month period since February 1986.

I remember that -NAO/-PNA couplet in December. Tricked out pattern but ended up snowless here.

Also the windiest December I’ve ever experienced. And super dry..there was a mid-month windstorm that ignited a bunch of fires  and filled the air with smoke. Like a miniature version of Sep 2020 there.

[TT-SEA]

SEA just jumped from 65 to 71 in the last hour as that persistent band of rain has finally moved east and there is some clearing now.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA just jumped from 65 to 71 in the last hour as that persistent band of rain has finally moved east and there is some clearing now.

Sun's out. 

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Or more of a neutral like 2012-13? 

That’s possible too, especially if QBO cycles fast.

However, the years that flipped from prolonged Niña base states (2012/13, 2001/02, 1975/77, etc) were easterly at 50mb, where-as next spring will almost certainly be westerly.

[Deweydog]

Delightful out.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s possible too, especially if QBO cycles fast.

However, the years that flipped from prolonged Niña base states (2012/13, 2001/02, 1975/77, etc) were easterly at 50mb, where-as next spring will almost certainly be westerly.

And the years that flipped to neutral/Niño with westerly anoms at 50mb did not do so from a Niña base state.

Could be that Hunga Tonga disrupted the SAO or upper stratospheric component of QBO to some degree. The persistence of westerlies from 10mb to just below the stratopause is unusual.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How is 2011-12 looking as an analog. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How is 2011-12 looking as an analog. 

Not the worst analog, but not great either. That has almost the inverse QBO (descending easterly shear, transitioning negative). And the -NPMM was dominant over the SPMM in 2011, where-as it’s flipped in 2022, indicative of axisymmetric changes in the Hadley/Walker intensity ratio.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Not great. That has almost the inverse QBO (descending easterly shear, transitioning negative). And the -NPMM was dominant over the SPMM in 2011, where-as it’s flipped in 2022, indicative of axisymmetric changes in the Hadley/Walker intensity ratio.

This year has reminded me a lot of 2011. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This year has reminded me a lot of 2011. 

Yeah, the warm season is one thing. Teleconnections work a bit differently than in the winter.

There are plenty of worse analogs I can think of, but would certainly weight towards descending +QBO years.

[Phil]

And then there’s the potential Tonga factor.

That H2O plume is still going strong in the upper stratosphere.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

And then there’s the potential Tonga factor.

That H2O plume is still going strong in the upper stratosphere.

Would not be surprised to see an increase in noctilucent clouds once it reaches higher latitudes.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

This winter feels destined.

[Meatyorologist]

Third Niña, third try's the charm. +QBO, volcanic strat.

[Phil]

Have to feel for people living in the South-Central US and Midwest. Some real f***ing nasty stuff incoming there, starting later this month.

This after an already torrid start.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Would not be surprised to see an increase in noctilucent clouds once it reaches higher latitudes.

Already, there’s this: https://wapo.st/3AsN0Mg

[NWbyNW]

So did the heat wave that was supposed to arrive  later this month disappear from Western Washington?  Sorry, I can't read back at the moment.  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

So did the heat wave that was supposed to arrive  later this month disappear from Western Washington?  Sorry, I can't read back at the moment.  

Basically... even the GFS does not show any 90+ temps in Seattle.  

[T-Town]

Ominous. 

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Basically... even the GFS does not show any 90+ temps in Seattle.  

I could live with a couple weeks of that. 

[Phil]

18z GEFS improved as well.

[TacomaWx]

72/60 today down to 70 with some light rain. Next batch of showers in SW WA appear like they’re heading our way. 

[NWbyNW]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Basically... even the GFS does not show any 90+ temps in Seattle.  

Thank you very much!  Sorry I couldn't go back and look.  I was on my phone and working.  I noticed the forecast for Everett has also been tweaked.  The 80 degree day has disappeared.  I haven't had time to look at the other forecasts I posted yet.  Much appreciated TT-SEA.  

 

[RentonHill]

[T-Town]

Since it’s a slow news night, here are some more cloud pics. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

69/56 today. 0.31” of rain. I’ll have to go back and see when the last time we had that much in July in a single day. Maybe 2011.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So green

[MossMan]

Only a couple more weeks until fair and football season starts! Go Geno Lock! 
 

It’s over. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by MossMan

[GHweatherChris]

Another splendid summer day, we are getting spoiled left and right this year.